Flyers vs Rangers Picks and Predictions: Fade Floundering Philly At MSG Tonight

The New York Rangers are red-hot and coming off one of their most impressive wins of the season as they host the Philadelphia Flyers tonight at Madison Square Garden.

For as hot as the Rangers are, the Flyers are equally cold — and oddsmakers have responded by making the Blueshirts massive NHL betting home favorites — but Philly has owned this head-to-head matchup recently.

Can the Flyers get back on track against a familiar foe... or will the Rangers stay hot at floundering Philly's expense? Get our thoughts with our free NHL picks and predictions for Flyers vs. Rangers on Wednesday, December 1, with puck drop at 7:00 p.m. ET.

Flyers vs Rangers odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

The Rangers opened at -165 on the money but has already jumped up to NYR -192 at the time of writing, while the total is holding tight at the opening number of 6, although it's shaded to the Under.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Flyers vs Rangers predictions

• Prediction: Rangers ML (-192)
• Prediction: Under 6 (-120)
• Best bet:  Rangers 3-way ML (-120)

Predictions made on 12/01/2021 at 10:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Flyers vs Rangers game info

• Location: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
• Date: Wednesday, December 1, 2021
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: MSG, NBCSP+

Flyers vs Rangers betting preview

Injuries

Flyers: Kevin Hayes F (Day-to-Day), Ryan Ellis D (Out), Derick Brassard F (Out), Samuel Morin F (Out), Nate Thompson F (Out).
Rangers: Sammy Blais F (Out), Gregg McKegg F (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Flyers vs Rangers head-to-head record (since 2018-19)

Flyers: 10-4-1, 20 goals for.
Rangers: 5-8-2, 45 goals for.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 12-3 in the Flyers' last 15 games as a road underdog. Find more NHL betting trends for Flyers vs. Rangers.

Flyers vs Rangers picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Moneyline analysis

The Rangers have been one of the bigger anomalies throughout this NHL season, specifically over this recent eight-game stretch where New York is 7-1 SU — despite sitting with the third-worst Corsi For Percentage at even-strength (per Natural Stat Trick), the ninth-ranked power play and 20th-ranked penalty kill during that span.

So how are they winning games? The brilliance of Igor Shesterkin. New York's star goaltender is fifth in the league in save percentage (.933), eighth in goals-against average (2.22), and fourth with 10 goals saved above average. His 0.823 goals saved above expected per 60 (per Moneypuck) tells us that he routinely steals almost one goal from opponents nightly and his brilliance was again on display in the Rangers' last game, when Boston outshot New York 17-5 in the first period, but went into intermission tied 1-1 — until the Rangers found their footing and came away with a 5-2 win.

While the Rangers bounced back to outshoot Boston 26-19 the final two periods, it still doesn't hide the fact that New York has had a sub-50 CF% in 10 of its last 12 games, as well as being below 46% on faceoffs in five of its last six outings. New York has had four days to practice and work on increasing possession (thanks in part to a scheduled game against the Islanders on Sunday that was postponed), but it also gets a boost by facing a Flyers team that is playing even worse possession hockey.

Philly has lost six straight games and seven of eight, with the culprit being an abysmal offense. During their skid, the Flyers are dead last in CF%, 27th in expected goals for per 60, 26th in high-danger chances for per 60, and 30th with a paltry 4.74 shooting percentage (all at even strength). Add in a 26th-ranked power play that's clicking at 8.3% and it adds up to the Flyers scoring two or fewer goals six of those eight games — and 10 of their last 12 contests overall.

The defensive coverage has also struggled during this losing stretch, with Philadelphia sitting second-last in shots against per 60, last in high-danger chances against per 60, and second-last with 2.89 expected goals against per 60. That is not a good recipe against a Rangers team that, despite having generally low possession metrics, has been generating the second-most HDCF/60 (14.96) over the last two+ weeks and is fourth in xGF/60 (2.67).

New York's possession deficiency is neutralized by Philly also struggling in that department, and it still has better goaltending while creating (and finishing) more quality scoring chances at 5v5.

Prediction: Rangers ML (-192)

Over/Under analysis

You did read above how the Flyers really can't score right now, right? Sure, the Over has actually cashed in four of Philly's last six contests — but mostly in part to its opponents scoring 19 goals in those four Overs. The two Under bets, however, did come on the road, where the Flyers have actually gone 7-2 to the Under in their last nine away contests.

The Flyers recently have been a team that struggles to create offense (in any situation) and has to go against a well-rested Shesterkin, aka one of the early betting favorites to win the Vezina Trophy — we're not banking on Philly putting up a crooked number.

So now it comes down to whether the Rangers can carry this Over. New York has hit the Under in three of its last five games, with one of the Overs coming when backup Alexandar Georgiev cough up four goals in two periods against Buffalo (and Shesterkin came in relief in the third and gave up zero goals) and the other against Boston (where NYR played two of its best periods of the year in the final 40 minutes).

The total has also gone Under in three straight head-to-head matchups. If this was a 5.5 total we'd look harder at the Over, but considering six total goals is just a push, we're going to lean with the Under tonight.

Prediction: Under 6 (-120)

Best bet

To add insult to injury, not only has the ice been tilted against Philadelphia, which is hemorrhaging shots and chances in the defensive end — its goalies have not been able to bail the team out the same way that Shesterkin has for New York.

Over the last two weeks, Carter Hart (tonight's expected starter) has a .800 SV% against high-danger chances at even strength, which is 42nd in the NHL during that span, while Martin Jones has been marginally better at .875% (19th). Overall during this span, Hart has a 5v5 SV% of .882 (54th) and -3.80 GSAA (62nd), while Jones is at .917% (37th) and has a -0.57 GSAA (38th).

Compare that to Shesterkin's .944 SV%, 1.49 GSAA, and .867 HDSV% (albeit with facing significantly fewer high-danger chances) over the same span, and it only further reinforces our belief that Igor can bail out the Blueshirts... but the Flyers can't rely on their goalies to steal games with as much confidence.

We simply can't fade the Rangers at home tonight against a Flyers team playing so poorly but -192 is a tough pill to swallow. However, if we take the Blueshirts to win in regulation, -120 is a significantly better value.

Pick: Rangers 3-way ML (-120)

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