The Vegas Golden Knights’ road trip continues with a stop-off at Amalie Arena Saturday night as they face the reigning Cup champs, the Tampa Bay Lightning. Vegas is just 3-7 SU in its last 10 and faces the Bolts, who have lost just once in regulation over their last 13 home games.
Can the Knights avoid their second three-game losing streak this month? Can the Bolts improve on their 8-1 SU mark against the West over their last nine games? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Golden Knights vs. Lightning.
Golden Knights vs Lightning odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The early line movement is in favor of the visitors as the Lightning opened at -155 on the moneyline and have since moved to -135 with a total of 6 leaning to the Over. Tampa won 4-3 in the previous meeting back before Christmas, as Vegas closed as -120 home favorites with a total of 5.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Golden Knights vs Lightning predictions
Predictions made on 1/29/2022 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Golden Knights vs Lightning game info
• Location: Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL
• Date: Saturday, January 29, 2022
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ATTSN, BSN
Golden Knights vs Lightning betting preview
Key injuries
Golden Knights: Alec Martinez D (Out), Jack Eichel F (Out).
Lightning: Nikita Kucherov F (Out), Erik Cernak D (Out), Brent Seabrook D (Out), Zach Bogosian D (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Golden Knights vs Lightning head-to-head record (since 2017)
Golden Knights: 4-3 SU, 23 goals for.
Lightning: 3-4 SU, 20 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Lightning are 8-1 SU in their last nine vs. the Western Conference. Find more NHL betting trends for Golden Knights vs. Lightning.
Golden Knights vs Lightning picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Moneyline analysis
The Vegas Golden Knights are nearly back to full strength with the additions of Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty to the lineup. But even with their top lines back in order, the Knights’ offense didn’t show any signs of life versus Spencer Knight and the Panthers Thursday in a 4-1 loss. The defeat was the Knights’ fifth in their last seven games, with those two wins being a 1-0 defeat of the Capitals and a 4-3 OT win against the Canadiens. This is a team that is not playing great hockey of late and is 5-7 SU since Christmas, which works out to the 19th-best point percentage in the league over that stretch. Injuries were an issue, but as we’ve seen with other clubs, it takes some time to get back to full speed.
The Knights will have their hands full versus Tampa, who already beat them in Vegas on December 21. Robin Lehner did not start that game, but Stone and Pacioretty did suit up. The Knights blew a 3-1 second-period lead in that one and lost as -120 home favorites. Now, the Knights will have to beat one of the best home teams in hockey, as the Lightning have just two regulation losses at home over their last 20 games at Amalie Arena.
If Vegas struggled to score against Knight, Andrei Vasilevskiy at home could prove an even more difficult task. The former Vezina winner is one of four goalies in the league with a home GAA below 2.00. Since November 1, no goalie has won more home games than Vaz, as he is 12-2-1 with a .937SV%. Tampa’s 2.17 GAA at home since November is the best mark in hockey — this is not a great spot for the Knights’ offense to find its way.
The Bolts will be without Nikita Kucherov (COVID) but his absence shouldn’t sway bettors. The Bolts have dealt with his absence for the majority of the season and finished with +1.00 goals above expected in their 3-2 win over the Devils on Thursday without him.
Robin Lehner will likely draw the start for the Knights. He's allowed just two goals over his last two games, but consistency has not been on his side this season as he owns a 2.82 GAA. Before those two games, he had allowed 10 goals across his previous three starts. Tampa Bay has the advantage in net by a fair margin.
Another advantage the home side has is on special teams. The Bolts have scored a PP goal in six of their last seven games and face a Vegas penalty kill that sits in the Bottom 15 of the league. The Vegas power play has also gone 0 for its last 10 and ranks 20th in the league in success on the season.
The Bolts are in better form and with this being the last game of a tough three-game road trip for the Knights, we’re siding with the Bolts here at -135 on the moneyline, which is priced five points shorter than the previous meeting (adjusting for home ice). We doubt we’d take this price much lower, but it’s not often you can get the Bolts at home for this price.
Prediction: Lightning ML (-135)
Over/Under analysis
The last meeting closed at 5.5 but we’re getting a total of 6 on Saturday night. The Lightning are the league’s best defensive team at home since November and on the season. Tampa is 12-10 to the Under at home, compared to 15-6-1 to the Over on the road. This is a defensively responsible team on home ice and Vasilevskiy is the best home goalie in hockey. Not having Kucherov in the lineup also favors the Under.
Vegas went into Florida on Thursday with a total of 7 and that match saw just three non-empty-net goals with one of those coming shorthanded. Vegas may be one of the best Over teams (hence the total), but with Lehner playing well, this is a team that can play solid Under hockey. They won 1-0 in Washington two games ago and their 4-3 OT loss to the Hurricanes likely should have hit the Under after two goals were scored across the game’s first 38 minutes.
The Knights have given up 89 even-strength goals across 44 games this year while the Bolts average below 2.00 even-strength goals per game. With neither power play sitting in the league’s Top 10, goals might actually be hard to come by tonight in Tampa.
The absence of Kucherov, Vasilevskiy’s home splits and Lehners’ recent play hurt this Over, which is a half-goal higher than the previous meeting, featuring Vegas backup Laurent Brossoit in net. This game will also see a ton of intensity, as these are two of the Top-5 Stanley Cup betting favorites.
At 6, leaning to the Over, we’re fading goals and hitting the Under 6 at +100 in what we expect to be a tight game.
Prediction: Under 6 (+100)
Best bet
The last meeting featured Brossoit in net for the Knights, Vasilevksiy on the road and a total of 5.5. With Lehner likely in net tonight and Vaz being the best home-ice goalie in hockey, we can't get behind the Over at 6. The Vegas offense has scored exactly one goal in two of its last three games and couldn’t beat Spencer Knight, who has been one of the more generous goalies in hockey this season.
Kucherov’s absence hurts the Bolts’ power play while the addition of Stone helps the defensive side of things for the Knights. We’ve been riding the Knights on the Over all week and there’s a reason we’ve hated the results. Give us a low-scoring, tight battle with very little free ice. This matchup has very different circumstances than the previous meeting just before the break.
Pick: Under 6 (+100)
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