Hurricanes vs Islanders Game 3 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Burns Leads Carolina Offense in Game 3

The Carolina Hurricanes are one of two teams entering their third playoff game with a 2-0 series lead. They'll look to take a commanding lead tonight vs. the New York Islanders, who enter as slight -115 home favorites. 

The Hurricanes caught some breaks in Game 2 but took advantage and continue to put a ton of shots on net — especially from the blue line. Ilya Sorokin has been one of the best home goalies in hockey this year and I expect the Canes to keep firing away. 

Find out where my best bets lie in Hurricanes vs. Islanders NHL betting picks below. 

Hurricanes vs Islanders Game 3 odds

Hurricanes vs Islanders series odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of April 21, 2023.

Hurricanes vs Islanders Game 3 predictions

The Carolina Hurricanes will continue to ask the blue line to generate the offense as they lost another top-six forward in Teuvo Teravianen in Game 2. That’s good news for Brent Burns, who leads the team in shots and shot attempts through two games. 

The Canes have generated 40% of their shots on net from the blue line and Burns has a 13% shot share. His shot attempts/60 have increased substantially in the playoffs vs. the regular season and despite the New York Islanders having a great GAA at home, they do allow the 10th-most shot attempts on home ice and the 15th-most shots on goal.

With the increase of shots/60 from Burns in the postseason, if we bump up his average shots/60 from the regular season (well off his playoff mark), we can project 4.03 shots on net on a moderate projection.

With solid plus money for his Over 3.5 shots, I’m loving this play, and will even more if the Canes are playing from behind. Overtime is also very probable here, increasing Burns’ ice time.  

My best bet: Brent Burns Over 3.5 shots on goal (+110)

Hurricanes vs Islanders Game 3 moneyline analysis

The Hurricanes took advantage of a missed overtime call in Game 2 that led to their game-winning goal and had six power-play opportunities to New York’s zero. These issues were likely addressed with tonight’s officiating crew so I doubt the Canes will have as much of an advantage tonight as they did on Wednesday.

New York was the better team at 5-on-5 in Game 2, winning the xGoal battle and creating 14 high-danger chances to Carolina’s four at even strength. With the last change, officials likely giving them the benefit of the doubt in penalties, and Ilya Sorokin’s home splits, the Islanders at -115 is the side I like better tonight.

Sorokin finished the season 20-10-3 with a 1.91 GAA and a .936 SV% at home. The Islanders do allow a lot of shot attempts/60 at 5v5 (22nd in Corsi against) while Carolina sits first in Corsi for on the road, but Sorokin can handle the high volume which has generally been non-high-danger chances.

Carolina has scored on just one of their 16 high-danger chances in the series. Since the deadline, the Canes have struggled to bury their quality chances and had the fifth-worst shooting percentage on high-danger chances over that stretch.

Losing first-line winger Teuvo Teravainen certainly doesn’t help an offense that's already missing its best scoring talent in Andrei Svechnikov and Max Pacioretty. 

The Islanders were +145 dogs in Game 2 and were as short as -120 on the moneyline this morning before moving to -115. I think New York is the better team tonight, has the edge in net, and could get the benefit of the doubt after getting no help from the officiating in Game 2. 

Hurricanes vs Islanders Game 3 Over/Under analysis

NHL odds were hesitant to post a total of 5 in the two games in Carolina, keeping the number at 5.5 and heavily taxed to the Under. Game 3 will be different as it did open at 5.5, but hit 5 by this morning. 

New York is a different team at home and that’s what is likely driving the drop. The Islanders are averaging 5.31 total goals per game at home which is the second-shortest rate in hockey behind the Bruins. 

Carolina has put plenty of pucks toward the net in the series but they are mostly low-quality. Even with the few high-danger chances this injured offense can put together, they’re lacking the scoring talent to put those chances in the back of the net.

However, betting Under 5 is a tough pill to swallow as even a 2-1 game can turn into a 4-1 game with a pair of empty-net goals. 

The first period Under 1.5 might be a better bet for those looking for a low-scoring game and not wanting to touch the 5. The Islanders finished the regular season with the best ROI on first-period Unders at +24.19% with a 32-51-1 O/U record in the first frame. Carolina was +8.7 ROI on the same play.

Hurricanes vs Islanders betting trend to know

The Islanders are 4-0 in their last four home games. Find more NHL betting trends for Hurricanes vs Islanders.

Hurricanes vs Islanders Game 3 game info

Hurricanes vs Islanders Game 3 injuries

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