Hurricanes vs Lightning Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Burns Makes His Mark

The Tampa Bay Lightning have won five of their last six and sit as -130 home NHL betting favorites tonight vs. the Carolina Hurricanes, who have won three of their last four.

With neither projected starting goalie in great form through the first month, could we see some goals in a meeting that historically has favored the Under?

Find out my best bet and NHL picks for tonight’s Hurricanes vs. Lightning game below.

Hurricanes vs Lightning best odds

Hurricanes vs Lightning picks and predictions

I love the Under 6.5 here but fully expect it to close at 6. The majority of the previous meetings have closed at 5.5 and the Under has hit 17 times over the last 23 meetings. Both teams are coming off outings where they allowed 20 or fewer shots, and Andrei Vasilevskiy and Frederik Andersen are playing below expectations to date. 

To give bettors a more available number, I'm looking at the Carolina side and specifically on its blue line for my best bet.

Carolina’s Brent Burns is riding a four-game point streak, has a point in six of his last seven, and is playing over 23 minutes per game, which includes an average of 3:36 on the power play. He also leads the team in shots on net and shot attempts by a fair margin. 

Last night's game-winner was the 10th overtime goal for Brent Burns since the start of the 2014-15 season.

No defenseman in the league has more during that timeframe. pic.twitter.com/njHVD4ggNd

— Walt Ruff (@WaltRuff) October 30, 2022

We’re getting his Over 0.5 points at a very reasonable -123, which is a little longer today with the Canes coming in as the underdog. 

Tampa hasn’t been the best defensive team this year. It has a Corsi below 50%, is allowing over 3.00 goals per game, and ranks 20th in expected goals against/60. 

Burns will have plenty of opportunities at even strength and on the power play, while Vasilevskiy hasn’t been his Vezina-self this year with a 2.89 GAA and a .902 SV%.

In a game I’m predicting to close at 6 and be a low-scoring affair, I’m minimizing the risk with a -123 play on a player who might have the most opportunities tonight for the Hurricanes. Victor Hedman possibly missing his second game in a row would also favor this bet. 

My best bet: Brent Burns Over 0.5 points (-123)

Hurricanes vs Lightning moneyline analysis

Neither the Hurricanes nor the Lightning are leading their respective divisions 10 games into the season, and both teams have a goal differential much closer to zero than they’re used to. 

The Hurricanes come in having won three of their last four but two of those were overtime wins as a big favorite, and the other was vs. the struggling Canucks in Vancouver as a -160 favorite. This will be just the third time in 10 games that Carolina will be an underdog and Rod Brind’Amour’s squad is 0-2 SU in those games. 

Carolina is also on the front end of a back-to-back and it's unsure who will start in net Thursday night. Anderson picked up the OT win on Monday, stopping 18 of 20 shots, but he's also allowed five goals in two of his last four starts and owns a sub-.900 save percentage across six starts. Antti Raanta could possibly get the nod. He’s 2-1 SU on the season but has also allowed three goals in two straight starts. 

Despite the average goaltending, the Hurricanes still sit second in the league in expected goals against/60 behind only the Devils. Their plus-0.98 xGoal differential is also a Top-5 mark. The results might not be what the Canes are used to, but they are still playing a tight game and might be in better hands if Raanta gets the start. 

It won’t be an easy game tonight vs. Tampa, which has won three straight and five of its last six. Much like Carolina, it looks like the Bolts have gotten back to their game which is to minimize chances and let their best players win them games. Nikita Kucherov is riding an eight-game point streak and has scored in four straight. 

A big potential loss for the favorites, however, is with Victor Hedman, who missed Tuesday’s game and is day-to-day. Even in the Norris-winner’s absence vs. the Sens, Tampa gave up just 18 shots in its 4-3 win. 

Tampa has scored at least four goals in four of its last five games but tonight could be a tighter contest if both goalies can play to expectations. Each team sits in the Top 10 in shots allowed per game, and ice could be at a premium tonight vs. two teams that played three one-goal games last season, including two overtime meetings.

This game is a true coin flip and the extra 20-25 points the Bolts are receiving are mostly due to their home-ice advantage. I don’t have a play on either side.

Hurricanes vs Lightning Over/Under analysis

Over the last 10 meetings, which includes a playoff series, the total has closed at 6 just twice and 5.5 in the other eight matches. However, tonight we’re getting an opening total of 6.5, which might be a half-goal too high.

Combined, both teams are 8-9 O/U on the season and that comes with some average goaltending on both sides.

Neither team allows many shots on net as the Canes sit second at 26.2 while the Bolts rank 10th at 30.5. Carolina gives up few high- and medium-danger chances, sitting in the Top 5 in both categories while the Bolts block a ton of shots and haven’t allowed more than 27 shots in three straight games.

Historically, the Under has been the play even with the short total. The Under is 17-5-1 over the last 23 meetings with the majority of those totals being 5.5.

Neither power play ranks in the top half of the league as both teams come in 2-for-20 with the man advantage over their last five games.

Tampa has been very reliant on its top line of Hagel-Point-Kucherov, as the trio has 12 of the team's 32 goals. That line will see a healthy dose of the Canes’ Top-4 defensive pairings, which is a strength of this Carolina team. 

With both teams suppressing shots of late and a total that could easily close at 6, I’m riding the Under 6.5 tonight.

Hurricanes vs Lightning betting trend to know

The Under is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in Tampa Bay. Find more NHL betting trends for Hurricanes vs Lightning.

Hurricanes vs Lightning game info

Hurricanes vs Lightning key injuries

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