The tape-measuring bout between the Los Angeles Kings and Vegas Golden Knights is the marquee matchup in the NHL tonight. The two teams are among the favorites in the Stanley Cup odds and are both battling with the Vancouver Canucks for the top spot in the Pacific Division.
The big difference in this tilt could be goaltending. L.A. is expected to start No. 1 goalie Cam Talbot, and he’ll take his league-high 13.6 goals saved above average to the crease. It’s a different story for Vegas as Adin Hill is on injured reserve with an undisclosed injury, and backup Logan Thompson stopped just 21 of 26 shots against the Ducks last night. I’m expecting Jiri Patera to make just his sixth career start on Thursday.
For comparison, Talbot has 232 career wins.
While Los Angeles is trading as a short road favorite in the NHL odds at most sportsbooks, it isn't receiving consensus chalk. Targeting an outlier number is the key to my free NHL picks for this Kings vs. Golden Knights matchup on Thursday, December 28.
Kings vs Golden Knights odds
Kings vs Golden Knights predictions
Even before the expected goaltending mismatch, my numbers were showing value on the Los Angeles Kings. I have the Kings ranked as the No. 1 defense and No. 2 offense in my ratings, and their underlying statistics reinforce it.
Los Angeles paces the league in expected goals against (2.09) per 60 minutes at five-on-five and boasts a top-ranked 87.0% penalty kill. The Kings also rank third in Corsi For percentage (56.7%) while scoring the second-most goals (3.07) per 60 at 5-on-5.
I also value those metrics translating to Los Angeles scoring the third most goals per game (3.58) while allowing the fewest (2.32). The Kings are legit.
Make no mistake, the Vegas Golden Knights are also a top-tier team. Vegas has just been weaker defensively and checks out 16th in my defense ratings. So, with an inexperienced goalie going up against a two-way juggernaut, I’m happy to back the Kings.
As noted, Vegas goalie Jiri Patera will be making just his sixth start at the highest level and sports a mediocre .907 SV% and 2.94 GAA across 74 career AHL games.
Finally, the Golden Knights have surrendered 2.96 goals per 60 with a .899 team SV% at 5-on-5 through 12 games since Adin Hill sustained a lower-body injury on November 30. Vegas sported respective 1.89 and .936 marks across its first 23 contests of the year.
The goaltending drop off is real, and it's had a huge impact on Vegas' slide down my defensive ratings.
| BetRivers price | My price | Expected value |
|---|---|---|
| -106 | -146 | 15% |
My best bet: Kings moneyline (-106 at BetRivers)
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Kings vs Golden Knights same-game parlay
Kings moneyline
William Karlsson Under 0.5 points
Neither team to score five goals
Kings moneyline is my best bet for this game, and William Karlsson recording Under 0.5 points was included in my daily NHL player props article. Additionally, I don’t expect either team to explode for five-plus goals Thursday.
Statistical correction is set to start taking a toll on Karlsson. His shooting percentage and power-play points per 60 minutes are both considerably higher than his numbers in previous seasons, and as highlighted, the Kings are a nightmare matchup for opposing scorers.
The total for this game is 6.0, so while I’ve discussed the question marks surrounding Vegas’ goaltending for Thursday’s matchup, it’s relative to Los Angeles and Talbot sporting elite numbers. From a game plan perspective, I also expect the Golden Knights to try and tidy it up defensively after allowing 20 goals across their four straight losses.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Kings vs Golden Knights moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Golden Knights opened as a -125 home favorite through bet365 on Wednesday, but Vegas losing and Los Angeles winning last night had an impact on the moneyline odds. There is no longer a sizable gap between the two teams, and there isn’t an industry-consensus price, either.
This total is trading at 6.0 through most sportsbooks, and those listing the number at 6.5 are changing a hefty vig for the Under. Because Vegas has struggled defensively of late, we’re seeing the Over 6.0 juiced leading into puck drop.
For reference, the total has closed at 6.0 for the two previous meetings between the Kings and Golden Knights. Vegas won 4-3 in a shootout on October 28, and L.A. won 4-1 on November 8.
Kings vs Golden Knights betting trend to know
The Kings have won 13 of their past 15 road games, and the Golden Knights have lost four straight. Find more NHL betting trends for Kings vs. Golden Knights.
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Kings vs Golden Knights game info
| Location: | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date: | Thursday, December 28, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports West, Scripps |
Kings vs Golden Knights latest injuries
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