Two familiar foes will meet in Edmonton tonight as the Oilers host the Los Angeles Kings in tonight’s nightcap as -145 favorites.
Both teams sit just over .500 and have a goal differential of near zero but as square as it sounds, Connor McDavid is projected to have another big game and hopefully add to his NHL goal lead which can be had at plus money for bettors.
Find out in my free NHL picks and predictions for Kings vs. Oilers.
Kings vs Oilers best odds
Kings vs Oilers picks and predictions
When comparing Connor McDavid’s goal price tonight (+104) to other elite scorers, it’s tough to pass up his anytime goal bet. He leads the league with 15 goals in 16 games. His 23.4 shooting percentage is unsustainable (15.3% over his career) but at plus money to score — something he’s down in seven of his last nine games — this is the best bet on the board here.
Connor McDavid has 15 goals and 17 assists through his team's first 16 games of the season.
— Hockey Reference (@hockey_ref) November 14, 2022
The last player with 15+ goals and 15+ assists through 16 games was his teammate Leon Draisaitl. Only three other players have done it this century.@EdmontonOilers | #LetsGoOilers pic.twitter.com/4NK9xu947m
McDavid scored four goals in the seven-game series vs. the Kings in last year’s playoffs, including one tuck in each of the series’ last three games. He gets a huge advantage being at home with the last change and can get away from LA centers Anze Kopitar and Phillip Danault.
He’s currently playing with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jesse Puljujarvi at even strength but the probability of him hitting this prop with the man advantage is big tonight.
The Kings have a Bottom-7 penalty kill and are allowing over 4.00 goals per game on the road this season. They’ve given up four power-play goals over the last three games and face the third-best PP tonight. Edmonton has also scored 39 goals over the last 10 meetings dating back to last season.
With the Oilers as -145 favorites and a total starting to hit 7.0, McDavid will factor into the scoring tonight, and at +104 to score a goal, I’m all in.
My best bet: Connor McDavid anytime goal (+104 at Caesars)
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Kings vs Oilers moneyline analysis
The Oilers opened as short as -160 but have lengthened up to -145. The books are saying this would be close to a pick ‘em on neutral ice but with the Oilers' power play of late, the edge goes to Edmonton, in my opinion.
Both teams have similar goal differentials and xGoal%, and while the Kings have better possession numbers, the advantage the Oilers have on the power play is substantial. and could be the difference in this game. Edmonton’s No.3 PP will face an LA penalty kill that sits in the Bottom 7 in the league and has been exposed of late.
Unfortunately, I can’t advise betting on either side until the Oilers announce a starter in net. That’s how bad Jack Campbell has been.
Edmonton signed the former Toronto goalie to a multi-year contract in the offseason but he currently owns a .875 SV% and a 4.27 GAA — both metrics ranking in the Bottom 5 of the league. He’s 6-4 on the season but the Oilers have had to average nearly 4.00 goals per game to support the struggling goalie.
Stuart Skinner picked up the 4-2 win in the Oilers’ last game vs. the Panthers and could likely see the crease again tonight. If that were the case, we could see Edmonton’s moneyline shorten up. Edmonton closed at -155 vs. Dallas in its last home game. If Skinner starts, I'd take the Oilers at -145 or better.
This is not a great matchup for the Kings, who currently have two goalies with save percentages below .900 and allow over 4.00 goals per game on the road. Edmonton has won seven of the last 10 meetings (all last year), including the playoffs, where they won four of a seven-game playoff set.
If this game is going to be a shootout, which the total is indicating, the edge goes to the Oilers, especially if Skinner starts. If Campbell does get the nod, bettors might be better off pivoting to a total market.
Kings vs Oilers Over/Under analysis
Combined, both teams are 19-11-4 O/U on the season but with a total teetering on 7, it’s tough to hit the Over without knowing who is net for the Oilers.
Edmonton is 2-2-1 O/U on totals of 7 this season with Campbell playing in three of those (2-1 O/U). Over his 10 starts, he’s 7-2-1 O/U, which is to be expected when he’s getting nearly 4.00 goals of support and sporting a GAA of 4.27.
If bettors can get the Over 6.5 with Campbell confirmed, that’s the best position they can have, but this total will likely hit 7 before that happens. When the total does hit 7, we should be looking at team total markets as Edmonton Over 3.5 is a decent play at -120.
If Skinner starts, the 6.5 total might fall, but I'm still not playing it at -130 or shorter.
With projected power-play goals expected on both sides, it’s tough to trust this Under tonight even if Skinner does get the nod.
Kings vs Oilers betting trend to know
The Kings are 4-11 SU in the last 15 meetings in Edmonton. Find more NHL betting trends for Kings vs Oilers.
Kings vs Oilers game info
| Location: | Rogers Place, Edmonton, AB |
| Date: | Wednesday, November 16, 2022 |
| Puck drop: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Kings vs Oilers key injuries
