Kraken vs Maple Leafs Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Toronto Takes Advantage of Seattle's Shortcomings

After another high-scoring game in which they lost in a shootout on Tuesday, the Toronto Maple Leafs host the Seattle Kraken tonight as -210 favorites, which might seem long for the home side, but the Kraken have the 11th-best point percentage in hockey.

However, there are some indicators that Seattle is playing above its talent and with Toronto coming off a game where it was severely outplayed by a shorthanded St. Louis team, this is a great rebound spot for the Buds, who still managed five goals on 25 shots Tuesday.

Here are my free NHL betting picks for Kraken vs. Leafs.

Kraken vs Maple Leafs best odds

Kraken vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions

If I knew for sure that William Nylander was missing this game (absent at practice Wednesday), then Morgan Rielly to record a power play point for +350 would be my best bet as he would likely slide back into PP1 vs. the 31st-rank Seattle penalty kill. However, with the uncertainty there (I think he suits up), the Leafs’ team total of Over 3.5 is my favorite play tonight.

With the books overvaluing the Kraken, in my opinion, bettors are getting an even better price tonight on the team total.

Seattle boasts a pair of goalies with sub-.900 save percentages and has the worst save percentage of the bottom 15 teams in GAA making the argument that they have the worst goaltending in the league. 

The Kraken’s No.31 penalty kill isn’t doing them any favors and with the Leafs owning a Top-10 power play (25% and 4-for-9 over their last three games), Toronto getting a power-play goal or two tonight is very probable — hence the Rielly power-play point lean.

The Leafs are just one of two teams scoring more than 4.00 goals per game since December 1 and they’re getting goal contributions from outside the core four with Michael Bunting, Alex Kerfoot, Pierre Engvall, and Calle Jarnkrok combining for 20 goals in the last 10 games with 17 coming at even strength.

The Leafs have hit the Over 3.5 goals in seven of their last 10 games and in four of five. This offense has also come out of the break hot with 19 goals over four games since the Christmas restart.

My best bet: Maple Leafs team total Over 3.5 (-120 at bet365)

Kraken vs Maple Leafs moneyline analysis

Toronto opened at -200 on the moneyline but is starting to see some money come in as the line has moved as high as -220 as of this morning. These teams met last season in Toronto with the Leafs winning 6-4 as a -290 ML favorite.

Tonight's price seems quite long for the Leafs. They closed as -300 favorites Tuesday vs. the Blues and although the Kraken come in with a 20-12-4 record, they have just a plus-nine goal differential and rank 31st in penalty killing. They surprisingly have a better goals-per-game offense (3.50) than the Leafs (3.42), which is hard to believe and worth looking into.

Seattle has just one player with 13 or more goals (Jared McCann, who has a 1.5 shot total prop) and Andrei Burakovsky leads the team at 0.78 points per game. Seattle scores the most 5-on-5 goals per game in hockey at 2.47 per match but it also has the second-highest goals for above expected. Add in the league’s second-highest shooting percentage and this offense should see a regression sooner than later. 

With an expected offensive decrease, a 3.22 GAA (15th), and an awful penalty kill, I don’t see much difference between Seattle and St. Louis, which would put this ML around 50 points off by my handicap. I’m not saying the books are 50 points off here, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see this ML move closer to -250.

Seattle’s “offensive” strengths at 5-on-5 also play into the Leafs’ strengths. Toronto has allowed the third-fewest goals at even strength and following some recent loose play, Sheldon Keefe might put the focus on tightening things up.

I’m also more comfortable with the Leafs if they start Matt Murray — which they should. Murray has allowed two or fewer in three of his last four starts and has a 9-2-2 record with a .925 save percentage since returning in mid-November. Ilya Samsonov is struggling right now with a save percentage below .900 in four straight games.

Nylander's absence from Wednesday’s practice is a slight concern for Leafs backers, but it could just be a maintenance day for the team’s leading goal scorer and point producer. Wayne Simmonds was on the top line with Auston Matthews and Bunting. If he were to miss the game, I could see the ML falling by 15 points which would still put me on the Leafs.

#Leafs lines during practice Jan. 4/23

Bunting-Matthews-Simmonds*
Jarnkrok-Tavares-Marner
Kerfoot-Kampf-Engvall
AstonReese-Holmberg-Hunt
*Nylander absent

Rielly-Brodie
Girodano-Holl
Sandin-Liljegren
Extra: Benn-Timmins@BodogCA @RinkWideTOR

— David Alter (@dalter) January 4, 2023

This is still an offense that can roll and has scored four or more goals in seven of its last 10 games and has potted 19 goals in the four games since the restart. The power play is 4-for-9 over the last games and gets a huge advantage tonight vs. one of the worst penalty kills in hockey.

I’m certainly agreeing with the market today and have no issues taking the Leafs in regulation at -125 but if bettors can get the Toronto team total Over 3.5 at a better price, I think that’s the better avenue. 

Kraken vs Maple Leafs Over/Under analysis

Over bettors have been cashing in with the Leafs of late as books were slow to adjust to their unsustainable goaltending. Toronto has hit the Over in five straight and eight of 10. The majority of those totals closed at 6 or lower but we’re getting a well-deserved 6.5 tonight, which is the right adjustment and keeping me off the Over.

With Murray likely to start and Nylander questionable, I’m leaning on this Under at -115 but will leave it alone and focus on the Toronto team total instead due to correlation.

The Seattle offense does most of its damage at 5-on-5 and the Leafs are one of the best defensive teams at even strength. Seattle has been scoring at a rate that's well over expected with a high shooting percentage and equally high expected goals for differential.

However, a Toronto offense that’s scored 4.15 goals per game since December 1 (13 games) is tough to bet against, and with how awful the Seattle PK is, Toronto could get one or possibly two PP markers tonight. 

Nylander’s participation adds a wrinkle to this total but I’m still confident in the team total without him. I haven’t seen any reason why Nylander would miss the game unless he’s dealing with an illness. Toronto doesn’t play tomorrow so there’s a little less to worry about with the star winger missing the game.

Seattle goalie Philipp Grubauer is not to be trusted with an Under with a .881 save percentage on the season, but Martin Jones is no Vezina candidate either with a sub-.900 SV%. 

Kraken vs Maple Leafs betting trend to know

The Maple Leafs are 5-0 SU in their last five games vs. the Pacific. Find more NHL betting trends for Kraken vs Maple Leafs.

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