The Tampa Bay Lightning are off to a strong start. They own a 7-5-0 record and have already picked up wins against Carolina, Vancouver, Vegas, New Jersey, Washington, and Colorado. Each team was in the playoffs a season ago or destined to find themselves there this season.
Although the Lightning are currently on a two-game skid, they’re in a good spot to get things back on track against the St. Louis Blues. My Lightning vs. Blues predictions see a pesky but skilled winger putting his fingerprints all over this game.
Let’s take a closer look with my NHL picks for Tuesday, November 5.
Lightning vs Blues prediction
My best bet
Brandon Hagel Over 2.5 shots (+114 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Brandon Hagel has extreme reverse splits. While many players produce more points and shots when playing at home, Hagel is in the inverse — and understandably so. His line is usually tasked with playing difficult minutes in Tampa Bay, whereas he gets freed up a little more when Jon Cooper can’t control matchups on the road. Clearly, that benefits Hagel.
He has averaged 3.3 shots on goal through seven road games thus far, clearing in six of them. Those are much better than his home outputs as Hagel has averaged 1.4 shots and failed to clear his line in all five games.
I love Hagel’s chances of continuing his road success against the St. Louis Blues. They check a lot of boxes in terms of extracting volume from Hagel.
They rank 14th in 5-vs-5 pace, which is a big step up for the Tampa Bay Lightning, who sit 27th. The Blues could speed things up a little bit for the Bolts and raise their shooting floor and ceiling.
They are also very susceptible to giving up shots at high volumes. The Blues sit 25th in 5-vs-5 shot suppression and 22nd when killing penalties. Hagel’s line won’t see top competition at 5-vs-5 and he skates on the No. 1 power play unit, so he should greatly benefit in each situation.
St. Louis also concedes a ton of shots to wingers. Only nine teams have allowed more shots per game to the position, sandwiching the Blues between the Anaheim Ducks and Detroit Red Wings — never a good sign.
This is a good spot for Hagel to continue piling up the shots.
Lightning vs Blues same-game parlay (SGP)
Brandon Hagel Over 2.5 shots
Brandon Hagel Over 0.5 points
Jake Guentzel Under 3.5 shots
Hagel is a lethal shooter. He has converted on 15.8% of his shots through 305 career games. As such, it makes sense there is a direct correlation between Hagel generating shot volume and finding the scoresheet.
Dating back to the beginning of last season, Hagel has a point in 76% of his games when piling up three shots or more.
Hagel should see a lot of St. Louis’ pedestrian Middle-6 at 5-vs-5. He also skates on an elite power play unit featuring Nikita Kucherov, Jake Guentzel, Victor Hedman, and Brayden Point, although the latter’s status is up in the air. He is in a really good situation to hit the scoresheet.
This line is simply a shot too high for Guentzel. Guentzel has recorded four shots in only three of 12 games this season and is averaging just 4.6 attempts per game.
With such low attempt volume, there is little margin for error in missing the target or having his shots blocked. He needs them all to get through.
That’s a lot to ask going up against a Blues team that features three of the Top-70 defensemen in shots blocked this season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Lightning vs Blues odds
Lightning vs Blues live odds
Lightning vs Blues opening odds
- Puck line: Tampa Bay -1.5 (+162) | St. Louis +1.5 (-185)
- Moneyline: Tampa Bay -155 | St. Louis +137
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (+103) | Under 6.5 (-118)
Lightning vs Blues trend
Brandon Hagel has cleared his 2.5 shooting line in five consecutive road dates. Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs. Blues.
How to watch Lightning vs Blues
| Location: | Enterprise Center, St. Louis, MO |
| Date: | Tuesday, 11-5-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FDSNMW, FDSNSUN |
Lightning vs Blues latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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