Lightning vs Ducks Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Terry Shines Even if Ducks Don't

The Tampa Bay Lightning will play the latter half of what’s already their third back-to-back of the young NHL season when they visit the Anaheim Ducks at the Honda Center on Wednesday evening.

The Lightning dropped the opener of their three-game West Coast road trip to the Kings 4-2 on Tuesday night. The Ducks will play their first home game since Oct. 12, when they opened the campaign with a victory over the Seattle Kraken. Since then, Anaheim is an abysmal 0-4-1. 

Can the Bolts bounce back in this spot, or will the Ducks benefit from some home cooking? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Lightning vs Ducks on Wednesday, October 26.

Lightning vs Ducks best odds

Lightning vs Ducks picks and predictions

There are some interesting angles to go on for both a moneyline and a total play in this contest, but none feel like a lead-pipe cinch. We’ll head to the NHL props markets instead, looking for a plus-money opportunity. 

The Lightning are highly likely to trot out backup netminder Brian Elliott, with former Vezina Trophy winner Andrei Vasilevskiy having played on Tuesday night. The 37-year-old Elliott has worked the latter half of back-to-backs for Tampa thus far in 2022-23 with poor results, owning a 4.04 GAA and a .899 save percentage to this point. 

This fact, combined with a long-awaited return to home ice for Anaheim, makes taking a Ducks player prop wager appealing, as the odds will be skewed against them in an underdog role.

Troy Terry will be our choice to score a goal in this tilt and break a mini-slump of four games without finding the twine. Terry scored twice in a season-opening victory over Seattle, then only once over the five-game road skid. 

Part of the reason why the Ducks went winless on their extended trip was an ineffective power play, as they somehow went 0-for-17 in that department after going 2-for-3 on the man advantage on opening night. Terry scored eight of his 37 goals in his breakout 2021-22 campaign on the power play, so he could easily be the one to get Anaheim off the schneid tonight. It’s also hard to say the penalty kill has been a source of strength for the Lightning this year, as they’re 13th in the NHL at 80.8% efficiency. 

Terry was a slightly better sniper at home last year, notching 19 goals over 36 games, compared to 18 goals over 39 games as the visitor. He had a tally in his lone appearance against Tampa last season. These odds are more than fair.

My best bet: Troy Terry anytime goal (+188)

Lightning vs Ducks moneyline analysis

There’s a temptation to take the Ducks as home underdogs, but the price is a bit too low on a team that looks like it picked up where it left off at the end of last year when they went into a second-half tailspin and fell right out of the playoff picture. 

Anaheim was thoroughly thrashed over its last five games, getting outscored 23-9. Its lone win of this year came against the Kraken, who are 3-3-2 in only their second season in the NHL. The Ducks are 1-5 in their last six home games following a road trip of seven or more days, so a return to the Honda Center won’t necessarily cure what ails them.

It’s discouraging to note that Elliott will likely start over Vasilevskiy in this spot, but that appears to be built into the odds. Regardless of who’s manning the crease, the Bolts have been a decent bet in the tail-end of a back-to-back, winning 36 of their last 53 games in that scenario. 

Lightning vs Ducks Over/Under analysis

We’ve discussed the potential play in net from Elliott, but we’ve yet to mention the Ducks’ unenviable goaltending situation. John Gibson and Anthony Stolarz have combined for a 4.50 GAA and a .891 save percentage this year, so Anaheim will have a tough time keeping pucks out regardless of who's between the pipes. This position is no small part of the Ducks’ 11-5-2 run of Overs. 

Some teams go into a “shell” defense in the latter half of a back-to-back, but not Tampa. They’re 18-7-2 to the Over in their last 27 games in this scenario. 

The Lightning power play has been firing on all cylinders this season, ranking eighth at 23.9% efficiency. Steven Stamkos has buried five of the Bolts’ seven man-advantage markers, and Nikita Kucherov has racked up five power-play assists.

In addition to Terry, Frank Vatrano is a decent bet to get on the scoresheet for Anaheim. He’s tied for the team lead in goals (three) to this point and had two goals and three assists in six postseason games against the Lightning as a member of the New York Rangers last season.

Lightning vs Ducks betting trend to know

The Ducks are 2-9 in their last 11 home games. Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs Ducks.

Lightning vs Ducks game info

Lightning vs Ducks key injuries

Pages related to this topic