The Philadelphia Flyers conclude a four-game homestand on Tuesday night against the Tampa Bay Lightning at the Wells Fargo Center.
The Flyers are coming off back-to-back losses over the weekend after winning their previous five games. The Lightning are also coming off a loss preceded by a five-game winning streak.
Home-ice advantage may be the difference tonight as the Flyers are 11-10-2 at home while the Lightning are just 9-13-2 on the road.
How do the NHL odds shake out for this matchup? Read on for our Lightning vs. Flyers NHL picks and predictions on Tuesday, January 23rd
Lightning vs Flyers odds
Lightning vs Flyers predictions
The Philadelphia Flyers and Tampa Bay Lightning have both been a bit surprising so far this season. The Flyers have been a pleasant surprise as they’re very much in the playoff race during their rebuild. On the flip side, the Lightning are still pushing for a playoff spot as they hope to hold on to the final years of their dynasty.
The Flyers were riding high entering their weekend set against Colorado and Ottawa. They had won five straight games, including a dominant 5-1 win against Dallas. However, they got humbled by Nathan MacKinnon on Saturday before getting outplayed by the Senators on Sunday.
"We didn't make enough plays," Flyers coach John Tortorella said. "We did not establish forechecking. We were just one and done. In the second half of the game, we were just one and done. They generated so much momentum off of their goals. Once they scored, they generated momentum."
The good news is that the Flyers were at home for all of those games and haven’t had to travel like the Lightning.
Tampa Bay also had a back-to-back set this weekend and now this is its third straight game on the road. The Bolts were in Buffalo, then Detroit, and now Philadelphia for their third game in four days.
The Lightning opened the scoring on Sunday in Detroit before allowing the Red Wings to come back for a 2-1 win.
"You can't just play one period in this league and expect to win," Lightning coach Jon Cooper said. "We had a chance to win, but only because our goalie gave us a chance."
Road troubles are nothing new for the Lightning this season. They’ve been impressive at home at 15-5-3 but for whatever reason have struggled mightily on the road. They’re 9-13-2 in away games, giving a huge advantage to the Flyers tonight.
Philadelphia ranks 11th in the NHL this season with a 51.52% expected goals for while Tampa Bay sits 21st at 49.10%.
The Flyers may also have the advantage in net tonight, even against one of the best goalies in the world, Andrei Vasilevskiy. Vasilevskiy hasn’t looked like himself this season after returning from back surgery.
Samuel Ersson (12-6-3, 2.36 GAA, .909 SV%) is confirmed to start for the Flyers tonight. He’s been terrific since a few rocky outings to begin the season.
Finally, the Flyers’ depth should be able to expose Tampa Bay’s top-heavy team. The Lightning only really have one or two lines that can do damage while Philadelphia rolls four lines that can outwork the opposition.
My best bet: Flyers moneyline (-110 at FanDuel)
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Lightning vs Flyers same-game parlay
Flyers moneyline
Joel Farabee to score
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Joel Farabee is getting another chance on the top line tonight as Owen Tippett remains out with a lower-body injury. Farabee has been one of the best 5-on-5 scorers in the NHL this season, and the Flyers’ power play is starting to click as well.
Farabee has scored a goal in two straight games, three of his last four, and four of his last six contests. He’s recorded at least three shots on goal in five of those six games as well.
The winger is moving up to the top line tonight while remaining on the top power-play unit. Let’s take advantage of that with a five-to-one same-game parlay.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Lightning vs Flyers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Philadelphia Flyers odds and Tampa Bay Lightning odds both sit at -110 as of Tuesday morning. There hasn’t been any movement since opening, which makes sense as there aren’t any injuries or goalie changes of note.
If Jonas Johansson starts over Vasilevskiy, we could see this line move in the Flyers’ favor. However, it’d be shocking if the Bolts didn’t go with their number-one goalie tonight.
The total also hasn’t moved much but there is some variance. You can get Over 6 (-112) or Under 6 (+100) with Over 6.5 (+105) and Under 6.5 (-125) available as well.
I would go with the Under 6 (+100) if you’re looking for a total play tonight. Ersson has been great for the Flyers and John Tortorella should have his guys playing more responsible hockey after a few bad turnovers over the weekend.
Lightning vs Flyers betting trend to know
The Tampa Bay Lightning have only hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 90 games (-16.80 Units / -12% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs. Flyers.
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Lightning vs Flyers game info
| Location: | Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Tuesday, January 23, 2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCSP, BSSUN |
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