Lightning vs Flyers Picks and Predictions: Philly's Bad Luck Opens Great Betting Value vs. Tampa Bay

Two of the Eastern Conference's stingiest defenses face off tonight when the Tampa Bay Lightning visit the Philadelphia Flyers.

These clubs have long been known for offense — and still boast a number of well-known scoring threats — but they're both sitting among the Top 3 for fewest goals allowed in the East. The Lightning are NHL betting road favorites for tonight, with a total set at 5.5.

Here are our best free NHL picks and predictions for Lightning vs. Flyers on Thursday, November 18.

Lightning vs Flyers odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

This line opened with Tampa Bay -130/Philadelphia +110 and still sits there at the time of writing. The total has also shifted, going from an opening number of 6 down to 5.5. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Lightning vs Flyers predictions

• Prediction: Flyers ML (+110)
• Prediction: Under 5.5 (-105)
• Best bet: Claude Giroux Over 2.5 shots on goal (-110)

Predictions made on 11/18/2021 at 10:14 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Lightning vs Flyers game info

• Location: Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA
• Date: Thursday, November 18, 2021
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: NBCS-Philadelphia, Bally Sports Sun

Lightning vs Flyers betting preview

Injuries

Lightning: Nikita Kucherov F (Out), Erik Cernak D (Out).
Flyers: Ryan Ellis D (Out), Samuel Morin F/D (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Lightning vs Flyers head-to-head record (2017-20)

Lightning: 7-1, 38 goals for.
Flyers: 1-4-3, 27 goals for.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 7-1 in the Flyers' last eight games as an underdog. Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs. Flyers.

Lightning vs Flyers picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Moneyline analysis

OK, so it's not that surprising to know that Tampa Bay is still very good at goal prevention, with a blueline anchored by Victor Hedman and Ryan McDonagh, plus Andrei Vasilevskiy (aka the best goaltender in the world) between the pipes. But it is quite a shock to see the Flyers sitting fourth in the entire NHL with 2.43 goals against per game.

Philadelphia was dead last in goals against last year, 29th in 2018-19, and in the bottom half of the league in four of the last five seasons overall. But after adding Ryan Ellis and Rasmus Ristolainen to bolster the blue line, plus getting a bounce-back season from 23-year-old goalie Carter Hart (and a late-career resurgence from veteran backup Martin Jones), the Flyers are currently among the league's elite goal-preventing clubs.

Unfortunately, for the Flyers, their offense has been struggling, sitting 22nd in the league with 2.71 goals per game — their lowest ranking in the last five seasons — with the offense really drying up in November, averaging just 1.86 goals per game in seven contests. That imbalance has led to Philadelphia alternating wins and losses over its last eight games... but do they deserve to be home 'dogs tonight — even against a Tampa Bay team that has won three of four?

Despite the poor scoring numbers, advanced analytics are showing that the Flyers have been unlucky as of late. Since the calendar flipped to November, Philadelphia is sitting eighth in the league with 2.63 expected goals per 60 minutes at even strength, but has only actually scored 1.62 per 60 at 5-on-5 (31st). During that same span, the Flyers are also 10th in Corsi For Percentage but have a league-worst 4.62 shooting percentage (for comparison, the league average is 9.3 percent).

Tampa Bay, on the other hand, is just 16th in CF% at 5-on-5 on the season, with that ranking dropping to 23rd in November (47.50%), meaning Lightning opponents are actually controlling the majority of play recently, but the Bolts are being bailed out by their goalies, with a 94.85 save percentage at even strength — No. 2 in the NHL.

So why are we saying this? Essentially, Philly has been outplaying its opponents recently and getting offensive chances but has struggled to actually score at a very unlucky rate, while the ice has been slightly tilted against Tampa lately, only to be rescued by stellar keeping.

Philly's defense/goaltending (it's still weird to say) can go toe-to-toe with the Bolts right now and that offense is bound for some positive regression soon. We're not saying to expect a five-goal outburst for the Flyers tonight, but getting plus money on a home team that has better possession metrics than its opponent is a value we just can't pass up.

Prediction: Flyers ML (+110)

Over/Under analysis

If the above section didn't give it away... we're leaning towards the Under.

In addition to the Flyers' even-strength shooting woes in November, they're also generating just 10.65 high-danger chances per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (20th) and the power play is connecting at an 8.3-percent clip (29th). Combine that with the team giving up 1.8 even-strength goals against per 60 this month (buoyed by a seventh-best 94.32 SV%) and it's helped lead to the Under cashing in eight of Philly's last nine games — including a 1-2 O/U mark against 5.5 totals.

For Tampa, it's given up just 1.47 GA/60 at 5-on-5 in November (fourth-best), has the ninth-best xGA/60 (2.19), and has seen the Under cash in five of its last six games, including going Under against four straight 5.5 totals (against the likes of Toronto, Carolina, and Florida).

So no, we're not scared of all the offensive firepower these teams still have, nor the 5.5 total — we like the defense and goaltending that much.

Prediction: Under 5.5 (-105)

Best bet

In mentioning how Philadelphia has been a carrying even-strength possession this month — and Tampa Bay has simultaneously been on the wrong end of that scale — it's worth noting that the Flyers are third in the NHL with 35.76 shots per 60 minutes at even-strength in November... ao we're looking at a shots on goal prop from Philly's leading triggerman, Claude Giroux.

The Flyers' captain leads the team with 45 shots on goal through 14 games (3.21/game) and is taking 9.1 shot attempts per 60 minutes at even strength — his highest rate since the 2014-15 season and his second-highest rate ever.

Giroux has put at least three shots on net in seven of his last nine games, so we'll happily bank on him continuing to fire the puck tonight and go Over the 2.5-shot total.

Pick: Claude Giroux Over 2.5 shots on goal (-110)

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