The last game before the holiday break will showcase a pair of division leaders as the Tampa Bay Lightning visit the Vegas Golden Knights. The Knights are riding a five-game winning streak and are 8-1 SU in their last nine while the Lightning are 7-1 SU in their last eight.
Can the Knights continue their stellar play despite the likely absence of captain Mark Stone? Can the Lightning improve on their 10-3 SU mark over the last 30 days? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Lightning vs. Golden Knights.
Lightning vs Golden Knights odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Vegas opened as -135 favorites on the ML but has fallen to -115. The total opened at 6 briefly before hitting 5.5 and leaning heavily to the Over.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Lightning vs Golden Knights predictions
Predictions made on 12/21/2021 at 1:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Lightning vs Golden Knights game info
• Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
• Date: Tuesday, December 21, 2021
• Puck drop: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN+
Lightning vs Golden Knights betting preview
Injuries
Lightning: Brayden Point F (Out), Nikita Kucherov F (Out), Erik Cernak D (Out).
Golden Knights: Mark Stone F (Questionable), Alec Martinez D (Out), Jack Eichel F (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Lightning vs Golden Knights head-to-head record (since 2017)
Lightning: 3-3 SU, 16 goals for.
Golden Knights: 3-3 SU, 20 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 6-1 in the Lightning’s last seven vs. a team with a winning record. Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs. Golden Knights.
Lightning vs Golden Knights picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Moneyline analysis
The pre-Christmas schedule will get one more top-shelf battle as a pair of division-leading clubs in the Lightning and Golden Knights will meet in Vegas Tuesday night. Since the calendar hit December, no team has collected more points than the Knights who are 8-2 SU over that stretch while scoring 4.31 goals per game and sporting a power play with a success rate over 30 percent. They’ll be without top-line forward Mark Stone, but the Knights have dealt with his absence plenty already this season so the loss won’t be as big, especially with the team’s depth upfront.
Over this 10-game stretch, the Knights have collected some convincing wins versus good opponents with victories over the Rangers, Bruins, Wild, Stars and Flames. After a ton of injury problems to open the year, the Knights are cruising and are back in the conversation for Cup contenders.
The Lightning have played a mediocre stretch of hockey since beating the Maple Leafs back on December 9. They followed that up with a 4-0 loss to the Senators, a 3-2 OT win at home versus the Kings and a narrow 2-1 win over Ottawa again. This is still a team that is 8-1 SU over its last nine and has lost in regulation just three times since October 26, but they aren't playing their best hockey heading into Tuesday night.
These are two of the league’s best teams and while the Lightning have the advantage in net with Andrei Vasilevskiy, Vegas has won nine of its last 12 home games and can still roll out two solid lines even without Stone. This Vegas offense is averaging 4.00 goals per game over its last 30 days and has been more than consistent this month having scored three or more goals in nine of its 11 games.
These two teams have met just twice since 2020, but we’re looking at one evenly matched contest which the market agrees with as the Knights have gone from -135 to -115 on the ML.
This is not something we do often, but we’re looking at a Tie here and think both clubs skate hard before things wrap up in the league for a while.
Prediction: Tie (+320)
Over/Under analysis
While Tampa has been neutral on totals this season, the Knights have been one of the league’s best Over teams with a 19-11 O/U mark. This is a Vegas team that is scoring 4.00 goals per game over the last month but is also allowing 3.08 goals per game. The 7.08 combined goals per game is the second-highest in the league, only behind the Avalanche.
Vegas’ biggest weakness is easily its goaltending as Robin Lehner has been an average (or worse) goaltender this season. Lehner’s 3.03 GAA and .905 SV% are bested by backup Laurent Brossoit and the starter sits outside the Top 20 in goals saved above expected/60. The Over is 12-3-1 in Lehner’s last 16 starts.
On the other side, the Lightning have hit the Under in three straight as their offense has dried up, scoring just five goals in its last five games, but Vegas has been one of the more generous teams in hockey this season and are one of 12 teams that allow more than 3.00 goals per game. Vegas also has a Bottom-10 penalty kill which could help the Lightning get things going as Tampa has had at least three power-play opportunities in five straight games.
This 5.5 total is leaning to the Over but opened at 6 at some books. Vegas is a perfect Over team with a high-scoring offense and a weak backend and if the Minnesota/Dallas game yesterday taught us anything, it’s that things could get loose with no games on the horizon. Vasilevskiy is a tough goalie to fade, but it is much easier when he is away from home as he owns a 2.50 GAA on road compared to a 1.82 GAA at home.
Prediction: Over 5.5 (-120)
Best bet
It’s tough to gauge the level of intensity that both teams will bring tonight with the Christmas break following the match, but in saying that, it makes sense to try and hit the bigger bet (smaller stake) in the Tie.
Both teams have been playing incredibly of late and know how to win. This could possibly be a 2022 Stanley Cup Final and we’re hoping the players treat it as such which should keep things close.
Neither team is dealing with big COVID issues and the market is bringing this game closer to a pick ‘em. In all the craziness that’s surrounding the NHL of late, perhaps a bet on a Tie isn’t as unusual as it seems.
Pick: Tie +320
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