The Tampa Bay Lightning and Dallas Stars are both battling it out for third place in their respective divisions and every point matters this time of year. Both teams have excellent goaltending, will they steal the show? We have our eye on the total in our NHL picks and predictions.
The Lightning had a massive win against the Buffalo Sabres which ended their four-game losing streak. Meanwhile, the Stars are playing their third game in four nights and will need a great performance from Jake Oettinger between the pipes.
See who has the NHL betting edge for Lightning vs. Stars on Tuesday, April 12.
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Lightning vs Stars odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Lightning opened up as -180 heavy road favorites but the line has since moved all the way to -145. The total opened up at 6 and hasn’t shown any movement.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Lightning vs Stars predictions
Predictions made on 4/12/2022 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Lightning vs Stars game info
• Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
• Date: Tuesday, April 12, 2022
• Puck drop: 9:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Lightning vs Stars betting preview
Key injuries
Lightning: Brent Seabrook D (Out).
Stars: Brayden Holtby G (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Lightning vs Stars head-to-head record
Lightning: 8-2 SU, 31 goals for.
Stars: 2-7-1 SU, 16 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 8-1 in the Lightning’s last nine road games. Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs. Stars.
Lightning vs Stars picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Tampa Bay Lightning have completely owned the Dallas Stars over the past couple of seasons, including the lone meeting this season, 3-1.
Tampa had been in unfamiliar territory on a four-game losing streak prior to its huge win against the Buffalo Sabres on Sunday thanks in large part to a 28-save shutout by Brian Elliot.
Even with Elliot's great performance, it's likely that Andrei Vasilevskiy gets the start for the Bolts tonight. His last three starts have not been his best, losing all three and allowing 12 goals past in the process.
Like Tampa Bay, the Dallas Stars have also not been playing their best hockey of late. They've lost three of their last five and are just 1-2-1 in their last four contests at home. The nerves might be getting to them as they are only two points ahead of the Vegas Golden Knights for the second wild card spot.
Dallas has not been all that great in the offensive end this season — currently ranking 16th, averaging 2.99 goals per game — but their power-play unit has been effective, scoring three times on the man advantage in the last two games and converting at a 22.2% rate.
Dallas has a better PP unit than the Lightning right now, but Tampa is the better overall team on both sides of the puck.
It’s hard to bet against Tampa in April and I really like the way they match up against the Stars. Back the Bolts to secure two points.
Prediction: Lightning moneyline (-145 at BetMGM)
Over/Under analysis
This is going to be an incredible goalie matchup between a savvy vet in Andrei Vasilevskiy for the Bolts and a youngster on the rise for the Stars with Jake Oettinger.
Everyone knows what Andrei Vasilevskiy is capable of. He has been one of the best goalies in the world for the past couple of seasons and has performed to his best for yet another season.
This year, he is 35-16-5 with a 2.45 GAA and a .917 save percentage along with a fifth-best 23.0 GSAx. Oettinger is in his second full season and he is 26-13-1 with a 2.53 GAA and a .914 save percentage with a 32nd-best 1.9 GSAx.
Even though both teams have a ton of talent on the offensive end, the defense and goaltending overshadow it. I think Vasilevskiy and Oettinger battle it out and this game stays Under.
Prediction: Under 6 (-105 at BetMGM)
Best bet
Both teams are coming off offensive outbursts last time out, but they came against poor opponents in Buffalo and Chicago.
As of now, Tampa Bay is expected to score exactly 3.0 gpg and the Stars are expected 3.01 gpg. On the defensive end, Tampa is expected to allow 2.71 goals against per game while Dallas is expected 2.68 against per 60 minutes.
Tampa Bay has given up just nine goals in its last four road games while Dallas has scored just eight in their four games at home.
I think Tampa comes into Dallas and controls the pace of play while limiting the chances of the Stars.
I don’t expect the Stars to find much success offensively and I think Oettinger will bring his best game knowing he's up against Vasilevskiy. I love this game to stay Under.
Pick: Under 6 (-105 at BetMGM)
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