Tonight features a big-time divisional showdown between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Tampa Bay Lightning at Amalie Arena.
A win in regulation would nearly secure the division for Toronto, and my Maple Leafs vs. Lightning predictions believe Matthew Knies will be the catalyst for the Buds' win.
Find out why in my free NHL picks for this April 9 matchup.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning prediction
My Leafs pick: Matthew Knies Over 0.5 points (-110 at Sports Interaction)
My Leafs analysis
This is the most crucial game of the season for both the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Tampa Bay Lightning, as a regulation win for either side would put that team in first place in the Atlantic Division.
Toronto is coming off a tough loss last night to Florida, while the Bolts delivered a beatdown on the Rangers a couple of nights ago at MSG.
However, Toronto has had Tampa’s number this season, going 3-0, outscoring the Lightning 15-8 in the process. Leading the charge for the Buds is Matthew Knies, who has a goal in all three meetings — totaling six points against the Bolts.
Knies seemingly was the antidote the Leafs needed when facing off against Tampa. Toronto is 6-2 when the Leafs forward is in the lineup, and he’s been a big reason for the success too, totaling 13 points in that eight-game sample size.
The Leafs also seem to have the book on Vasilevskiy. In his last 10 starts against the Buds, he has a 3-7 record with a 3.66 GAA and an .871 SV%.
He’s allowed four goals in both meetings against Toronto this season, so if Toronto puts up that kind of offense again, there’s a strong likelihood Knies factors in.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning same-game parlay (SGP)
Matthew Knies anytime goal
Matthew Knies 2+ shots
Over 5.5
Knies has seven goals in eight games against the Lightning and has already scored in the three previous games against the Bolts this season.
The top-line winger is averaging 2.9 shots per game over his last 10 outings and has cashed this prop in each of the three games against Tampa.
These teams always seem to play in a lot of high-scoring games. The Over is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings, with the high total being covered in four straight matchups.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Maple Leafs vs Lightning odds
Maple Leafs vs Lightning live odds
Maple Leafs vs Lightning opening odds
- Puck line: Toronto +1.5 (-180) | Tampa Bay -1.5 (+145)
- Moneyline: Toronto +135 | Tampa Bay -160
- Over/Under: Over 6 | Under 6
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction
Maple Leafs vs Lightning trend
The Leafs are 7-3 on the moneyline in the last 10 games played between the two clubs. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Lightning.
How to watch Maple Leafs vs Lightning
| Location | Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL |
| Date | Wednesday, 4-9-2025 |
| Puck drop | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | SN |
Maple Leafs vs Lightning latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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