There are 12 games on the NHL slate tonight, including an all-Canadian clash between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Edmonton Oilers.
The NHL odds favor Connor McDavid & Co. in this matchup, but my Leafs vs. Oilers predictions look to fade Edmonton's awful penalty kill.
Read more in my NHL picks for Saturday, November 16 below.
Maple Leafs vs Oilers prediction
My Leafs pick
Mitch Marner Over 0.5 power-play points (+210 at Sports Interaction)
My Leafs analysis
Toronto Maple Leafs taking on the Edmonton Oilers on a Saturday night. It doesn't get much better than that, does it?
Connor McDavid is coming off a two-point performance in which he eclipsed the 1000-point mark in Edmonton's win over the Preds, its third win in a row and fifth in seven games.
Despite those wins, the Oilers are struggling on the penalty kill. Edmonton has given up at least one power-play goal in six of their last eight games and has killed off just 66% of their penalties, which is still higher than the season kill rate of 62.8%.
Toronto's power play has woken up from that early season stupor and is ranked No. 1 in the league since snapping an 0-for-20 skid back on November 3. It's been operating at a 42% clip since then, with nine goals on just 21 opportunities over the last six games.
This is a spot the Maple Leafs will have to exploit if they want to contend with McDavid’s Oilers without Auston Matthews. The player leading the charge on the man advantage this year has been Mitch Marner.
The Leafs winger has factored into 10 of the 12 goals scored by the Leafs on the power play this season and has cashed this prop in five of his last six games. For a bet that’s converting at an 85% rate over the last two weeks, +210 is excellent value.
A big issue for the Oilers' PK has been their inability to stop the puck when shots are coming from within the high-danger zone. Edmonton ranks 31st in the NHL with a lowly .636 HDSV% on the penalty kill.
That should bode well for a Maple Leafs team that generates the third most high-danger chances in the league (33.53/60) while on the man advantage.
Maple Leafs vs Oilers same-game parlay (SGP)
Mitch Marner 2+ shots
Bobby McCann 2+ shots
Over 5.5
I think Mitch Marner is going to have success on the power play tonight, but I’ll pair the best bet with his shot prop and take him to register 2+ on goal tonight for my SGP. He’s hit this mark in three of the last four games.
We’ll stick with the shot props and saddle up next to Bobby McMann and take him to record 2+ shots tonight as well. He’s been a shooting machine lately, with 14 shots over his last two games since being elevated to the top line with John Tavares and Marner. Overall, he’s registered 2+ shots in 13 of the 17 games he’s played this season.
Finally, we’ll finish off the parlay by taking the alternate Over of 5.5 goals. There are usually fireworks whenever the Leafs and Oilers play. There’s been a combined 39 goals over the last five meetings, which averages out to 7.8 goals per game.
However, I’m buying the number down to 5.5 because the Leafs have bought into a more defensive approach with just 5.61 goals scored in their games on average and just 5.88 for Edmonton — but that’s mainly due to early season offensive struggles, which have since been rectified.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Maple Leafs vs Oilers odds
Maple Leafs vs Oilers live odds
Maple Leafs vs Oilers opening odds
- Puck line: Toronto +1.5 (-250) | Edmonton -1.5 (+190)
- Moneyline: Toronto +115 | Edmonton -125
- Over/Under: Over 6 | Under 6
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.
Maple Leafs vs Oilers trend
The Leafs are 7-3 at home this season. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Oilers.
How to watch Maple Leafs vs Oilers
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-16-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBC |
Maple Leafs vs Oilers latest injuries
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