We’ve got 12 games on the NHL slate tonight, including a cross-conference clash between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the San Jose Sharks.
Toronto is looking to complete the California sweep tonight in the ‘Shark Tank’, and the NHL odds like it to be a low-scoring affair, which I think makes for an easy betting target.
Find out why in my free NHL picks for this January 6 matchup.
Maple Leafs vs Sharks odds
Maple Leafs vs Sharks predictions
The Toronto Maple Leafs will be looking for a clean sweep of the California road trip tonight as they take on the San Jose Sharks at the SAP Center.
The Leafs are playing some excellent hockey right now, winning back-to-back games against the Kings and Ducks, while the Sharks are currently riding a 10-game losing streak where goals have been extremely hard to come by.
This is why I’m targeting the Sharks’ lack of offense with my best bet. San Jose’s team total tonight is set at 2.5 goals, and I think the Under is the play there tonight.
Here’s why.
The biggest issue for the Sharks right now is their inability to generate offense. They rank 32nd in scoring chances and dead last in goals scored, with just 2.03 goals per game this year.
Furthermore, throughout this 10-game skid, San Jose has been held to two or fewer goals eight times. Given Toronto’s newfound attention to detail and urgent defensive play, the odds of them going Over 2.5 goals are slim.
The Leafs seem to have turned a corner defensively over their past few games. Toronto ranks second in the NHL in expected goals against over their last four-game span, giving up the third-fewest high-danger chances.
Opponents over that stretch include the Hurricanes, Blue Jackets, Kings, and Ducks. The last two games in particular have been tremendous, with just 13 high-danger chances against.
Which brings me to my final point. There’s a bit of a revenge narrative here, with Martin Jones being named the starter tonight. Jones spent the bulk of his prime as the starting goaltender in San Jose for six seasons.
San Jose moved on from Jones in 2021 and I’d bet Jones will have the group in front of him motivated to play well.
My best bet: Shark team total Under 2.5 (-165 at SIA)
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Maple Leafs vs Sharks same-game parlay
Sharks team total Under 2.5
Leafs -1.5
Auston Matthews anytime goalscorer
In addition to the Sharks team total Under, I like the Leafs on the puck line spread. The Sharks are one of the worst teams in the league, with an average loss margin of two goals per game. Toronto should be able to do similar damage tonight.
For my final leg, let’s roll with an anytime goal from Auston Matthews. It's been an easy bet to make over the past month with this prop cashing in 10 of his last 14 games, where he has 16 tallies in that span.
Oh, he also torches the Sharks. He’s got 11 goals in as many games and has scored in all but one contest against this opponent.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Maple Leafs vs Sharks moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Maple Leafs come into tonight as heavy -300 road favorites, with the Sharks entering as massive underdogs at +240 odds.
There will always be a small fear of betting the Leafs against a non-playoff team given their track record over the past few years. However, the team looks to be playing some solid hockey right now with great attention to detail. I don’t see value at -300, but perhaps the puck line spread at -105 odds is more enticing.
The total for tonight’s game is sitting at 6, with the favored side being the Under at -115. The Sharks have been held to two or fewer in eight of their last 10 games.
The Leafs are playing excellent defensively and are getting solid goaltending from Martin Jones. The Under is also 4-1 in both the Leafs' and Sharks' last five games.
Maple Leafs vs Sharks betting trend to know
The Sharks are 15-24 ATS this season. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Sharks.
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Maple Leafs vs Sharks game info
| Location: | SAP Center, San Jose, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, January 6, 2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, NBCS-California |
Maple Leafs vs Sharks latest injuries
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