Game 1 of this second-round Western Conference series is set to get underway with the Vegas Golden Knights hosting the Edmonton Oilers.
Edmonton has won six of the last eight matchups between these two clubs, dominating this head-to-head over the past couple of seasons.
Will the Oilers take care of business once again, or can the Golden Knights defend home turf in Game 1? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Oilers vs Golden Knights on Wednesday, May 3.
Oilers vs Golden Knights Game 1 odds
Oilers vs Golden Knights series odds
| Team | To win | Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oilers | -150 | +850 | +500 | +380 | +475 |
| Golden Knights | +130 | +1,700 | +750 | +650 | +500 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of May 3.
Oilers vs Golden Knights Game 1 predictions
After winning each of the final three games of the first round, the Edmonton Oilers carry a ton of momentum into this series against the Vegas Golden Knights. This Edmonton team is different than years prior, primarily due to the fact that it has learned it must also play defense if they are to make a real run at the Cup.
Since the Christmas break, Edmonton ranks sixth in the league in both expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) and expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5-on-5. While that strong defensive output regressed a bit in the first round against the Los Angeles Kings, the larger sample size over the second half of the season suggests that this blueline can still hold its own in the second round against the Knights.
This positive regression for the Oilers could especially ring true against Vegas, a team that ranks in the bottom half among remaining playoff teams in xGF/60 at even strength. A stale offense has haunted the Knights over the second half of the season, ranking 19th in the league in xGF/60 at 5-on-5 over that span.
Meanwhile, their defense is also due for regression. Since the Christmas break, Vegas ranks fifth in the league in GA/60 but just 18th in xGA/60 at even strength. It's easy to envision Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl racking up the points against this unit.
Like Edmonton, the Knights had no issue taking care of business in the opening round. With that said, they beat up on a Winnipeg Jets side that was imploding with sour relationships between the staff and veteran players, and a lineup that was riddled with injuries.
The second round will be a much bigger test for Vegas, and while the home-ice advantage should help, that will likely not be enough to quell a team that has been better both offensively and defensively over the second half of the season.
My best bet: Oilers moneyline (-115 at DraftKings)
Not intended for use in MA.
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Oilers vs Golden Knights Game 1 moneyline analysis
The Knights’ Laurent Brossoit is the biggest concern when backing Edmonton. After staying in the minors for most of the regular season, Brossoit made an immediate impact upon his February call-up.
Never looking back since getting a chance as a starter in the second half of the season, he posted a 7-0-3 record with a .927 SV% and a 2.17 GAA over 11 appearances in the crease. This strong play carried into the postseason, going 4-1 with a .915 SV% and a 2.42 GAA in the opening round.
However, going against the high-powered Oilers offense is an entirely different beast. Whether these results over a relatively small sample size are sustainable or not remains to be seen.
Oilers vs Golden Knights Game 1 Over/Under analysis
After Jack Campbell’s heroic efforts between the pipes in Game 4 to flip the series against the Kings on its head, head coach Jay Woodcroft returned to starting goaltender Stuart Skinner in Games 5 and 6. While Skinner has certainly not had the sharpest postseason, it is more likely than not that things turn around soon for the rookie netminder.
Through 50 appearances in the crease this season, he posted a 29-14-5 record with a strong .913 SV% and 2.75 GAA. His underlying metrics were just as tremendous, ranking seventh among starting goaltenders in the regular season in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5.
Brossoit has looked good, and I do not necessarily want to fade him in terms of the total yet. However, with the Oilers’ offense, there is no way I am taking the Under, so we will just back Edmonton outright in this opening game.
Oilers vs Golden Knights betting trend to know
The Oilers have won six of the last eight meetings between these two teams. Find more NHL betting trends for Oilers vs Golden Knights.
Oilers vs Golden Knights Game 1 game info
| Location: | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date: | Wednesday, May 3, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
