Despite a narrow 5-4 win last night vs. Arizona, the Edmonton Oilers are getting shorter on the moneyline ahead of their road game tonight vs. the Vegas Golden Knights. The visitors opened at -115 and have moved to -120, but also took a 4-3 OT loss at home just three days ago to Vegas as a -200 favorite.
Edmonton will likely go with its better goalie in Stuart Skinner who took the loss on Saturday, but with the Knights sporting the worst expected goals/60 at even strength this month, should bettors be expecting another 3+3=7?
Find out my best bets for the Oilers vs. Golden Knights in my NHL betting picks and predictions.
Oilers vs Golden Knights best odds
Oilers vs Golden Knights picks and predictions
These two clubs met just three days ago in a match that finished with both teams scoring three goals in regulation. Each team got a goal at extra strength while collecting at least 30 shots in the 4-3 Vegas overtime win.
It was a very even game in terms of generating offense. There were over 6.00 expected goals, both teams had over 60 shot attempts, 30 high-danger chances, and combined for nearly 80 scoring chances.
We saw both teams score in the opening period four minutes into the game, and with that same prop paying +130 tonight when the total has already hit 7.0, bettors will be likely sitting with the better number come puck drop if they get on the YES - both teams to score in the first period now.
The BTTS prop isn’t the fastest-moving market. In a game that is nearly a pick ‘em and has a total of 7.0, this price will likely close at +110. The Florida/Ottawa game had the same total yesterday and had a 1P BTTS Yes market close at +110. That game also had the Panthers as -150 road favorites.
No team has a worse expected goals/60 at even strength this month than the Golden Knights. They also sit 31st in scoring chances allowed/60 at 5-on-5 and 30th in high-danger chances against. They might have a 2.88 GAA in March, but the metrics are indicating they should be worse with Jonathan Quick playing above his talent.
The Oilers have been average in terms of expected goals for and against this month but their special teams have been a goldmine for goals. The power play has five goals over its last three games and has a 35% success rate in March, while the penalty kill has allowed a goal in three straight (two games vs. Arizona) and has a 75% success rate this month.
Vegas could concede some goals shorthanded as well as it currently ranks dead last in PK% at 64.3% since March 11.
I’m not necessarily concerned with each team’s production in the first period and just want a solid price in a game with lots of goals projected. It’s nice that the Oilers score more first-period goals than any team in hockey while the Knights sit eighth.
My best bet: Both teams to score in the first period YES (+130 at bet365)
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Oilers vs Golden Knights moneyline analysis
The Oilers held on to a 5-4 win last night in Arizona and now wrap up a brief two-game road trip with another match against Vegas.
Edmonton was a -200 favorite in that game but sits as a slight -120 road favorite today after opening at -115. Today’s price might seem short for the visitors, but if we assume 25 points for home ice, 25-30 points for the schedule, and consider the Oilers will have Stuart Skinner tonight and Vegas' Reilly Smith is out again, I understand the movement towards the visitors.
Vegas may lead the Pacific Division, but I don’t trust its underlying metrics that show it gives up a ton of chances at even strength and has relied on some unsustainable goaltending from Quick.
Vegas sits 31st or worst in expected goals, scoring chances against, and high-danger chances against at 5-on-5 this month and now faces the league’s highest-scoring team in hockey. It’s also a matchup vs. the worst PK in over the last 20 days (Vegas) vs. the only power play above 30% since the beginning of 2023.
Edmonton has scored at least three goals in each of its 15 games this month, and the offense has another great matchup vs. a team whose defensive issues might not be 100% priced into the line.
I like the Oilers' offense here but might prefer the team total Over 3.5 at -110 with the ML moving to -120. Thirty-three of Edmonton’s 36 wins since November 1 have come with it scoring at least four goals, while seven of its 29 losses have come with it hitting the team total Over 3.5. That’s a 62% rate of scoring four or more goals.
Oilers vs Golden Knights Over/Under analysis
In the last meeting on Saturday, the total opened at 6.5 and moved to 7.0 with a few books still hanging 6.5s near game time. Over bettors won’t have that luxury today as today’s total opened at 7.0.
This marks the first game the Golden Knights have opened at that number and will likely be just the fourth game that they’ll see it close there this year (0-1-2 O/U). Edmonton is 13-4-4 O/U on closing totals of 7.0 since January 1.
Special teams will certainly play a factor tonight, with the Oilers' No. 1 PP facing a Vegas PK that has the worst success rate since March 11. The Knights will also be missing Reilly Smith who has a 35% shorthanded time-on-ice percentage.
The likely goalie matchup will also feature two netminders who own a negative goals saved above expected/60. Quick didn’t see the Oilers on Saturday but sports a 2.93 GAA since joining the team. He has a .908 SV% with Vegas but an .882 SV% on the season and came from a very good team in L.A.
I do like goals in this game as I’m sure the betting public also does, but I think there's a little more value in the Edmonton team total Over 3.5 than the full game total. Both teams to score at least three goals is +115 might be better too.
A 5-2 game would be a push, but if this game were to hit the Over with some empty-net luck, we’d likely need to see both teams score three as it’s doubtful we’d see a goalie pulled in a 5-2 game.
Oilers vs Golden Knights betting trend to know
The Over is 7-1 in the Oilers’ last eight games in the third game of a 3-in-4 days situation. Find more NHL betting trends for Oilers vs Golden Knights.
Oilers vs Golden Knights game info
| Location: | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date: | Tuesday, March 28, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, HULU |
Oilers vs Golden Knights key injuries
