The Edmonton Oilers skate into Game 4 in near-desperation mode after losing their second overtime game of the series against the Los Angeles Kings. At times in this series, it's clear Edmonton is superior to L.A., but unfortunately, it couldn't hold a lead if it was glued to its gloves.
Tonight's matchup holds significant value: win and go back home tied 2-2 in a makeshift best of three, lose and head back to Alberta with the tall task of beating Los Angeles three times in a row.
When a team needs its best player the most they tend to deliver, and tonight Connor McDavid will leave his mark, one way or another. Let's hop into my NHL picks for Oilers vs. Kings, where I'll give you my best bet and break down the NHL odds for Game 4.
Oilers vs Kings Game 4 odds
Oilers vs Kings series odds
| Team | To win | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oilers | -120 | +500 | +300 | +225 |
| Kings | +100 | N/A | +350 | +500 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of April 23.
Oilers vs Kings Game 4 predictions
Connor McDavid failed to find the back of the net in the first two games of this series. but it wasn't from lack of trying... as the Edmonton Oilers' superstar launched 11 shots in those two outings.
After another seven-shot performance in Game 3, McDavid was able to get two past Korpisalo, but it was all for nothing as the Los Angeles Kings escaped with the overtime win.
Joonas Korpisalo has been tremendous since he had the chance to bathe in the Cali heat, and he played an integral part in keeping Connor out of the net during his stay in Edmonton for Games 1 and 2. With that said, keeping a player like McDavid scoreless three games in a row is a tough ask — Korpisalo learned that the hard way — and doing it thrice in four games is almost just as hard.
One important aspect to look at is both goals came on the man advantage, with Edmonton finishing the game 2-for-4 on the power play. This marks the third straight game the Oilers have scored on the man-advantage, converting at a 50% rate (4-for-8) in the series.
In fact, all three of McDavid's points this series have come on the PP, which could be worrisome if not for the fact that Edmonton's PP1 unit is otherworldly.
You can get McDavid to record a power play point at -165, but there's a good chance if the Oilers do score on the PP, it'll be No. 97 who'll be responsible. If the 64 goals on 352 shots wasn't a good enough hint, let me be the one to let you know the Edmonton center hasn't been shy to let it rip this year.
His 11.1% shooting percentage in the playoffs hasn't caught up to the 18.2% posted in the regular season, but his 2.5 xGF shows he still has ground to make up.
McJesus is playing just over 24 minutes per game this series, and if you couple his desperation to win plus the added time he'll spend on the man advantage, snagging him to light the lamp at plus money seems like a good deal to me.
My best bet: McDavid to score (+110 at bet365)
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Oilers vs Kings Game 4 moneyline analysis
Game 4 saw the Edmonton Oilers open up around -150 as the away favorites, with Los Angeles hovering around +135. Money has since come in on the Oilers, bumping them to as high as -178 in some places.
This shouldn't be a surprise to anyone, as on paper it seems Edmonton has been the better team up to this point, it just can't manage to hold on to a lead.
Per MoneyPuck, Edmonton has an xGF of 12.4 compared to L.A.'s 9.8, and the Oilers xGF/60 of 3.7 outshines Los Angeles' 2.8. In reality, Edmonton was 16 seconds away from winning Game 1 before squandering a lead which ultimately led to an overtime loss.
The Oilers may be down 2-1, but neither the public nor I believe they're the worse team. I won't pick a side simply because I can't imagine to watch as Edmonton blows another lead, so I'll simply stay away and root for McDavid to leave his mark regardless of the outcome.
Oilers vs Kings Game 4 Over/Under analysis
This total opened up at 6.0 but has since jumped up to 6.5 at some places. Edmonton has yet to score four goals this series, so it seems people are banking on that breakout to happen tonight. The books don't seem to be as confident, however, as the Over on any 6.5s is anywhere from -101 to -105, with Unders as high as -120.
The first three games of this series saw closing totals of 6.5, with the O/U record sitting at 1-2 heading into tonight. The Oilers have had no trouble generating shots (39 per game), but Korpisalo has done an excellent job keeping Los Angeles in this series.
Betting on the Over when it comes to Oilers games proved to be profitable in the regular season (46-27-9), but going against a hot netminder has proven to make backing the Over a little more difficult. Once again, I'll stay away from any play on here and just bank on one of those goals coming from Edmonton's captain.
Oilers vs Kings betting trend to know
McDavid has 23 goals in 40 career playoff games. Find more NHL betting trends for Oilers vs. Kings.
Oilers vs Kings Game 4 game info
| Location: | Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, April 23, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS, CBC, Rogers Sportsnet |
