The Toronto Maple Leafs will play just their second game since the restart versus the Edmonton Oilers Wednesday night in front of a near-empty Scotiabank Arena. But the most important absence will be that of reigning MVP Connor McDavid, who tested positive for COVID on Tuesday and has been ruled out for tonight's contest.
Can the Leafs take advantage of a struggling Edmonton team that will be missing three centermen including McDavid? Can Edmonton head coach Dave Tippett save this sinking ship or are coaching changes on the horizon? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Oilers vs. Maple Leafs on January 5.
Oilers vs Maple Leafs odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Toronto opened as high as -165 on the moneyline before the McDavid COVID news and has since swung all the way to as low as -260. The total also moved from 6.5 to 6. Toronto closed as -115 road favorites in Edmonton before the break in a 5-1 win with a total of 6.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Oilers vs Maple Leafs predictions
- Prediction: Maple Leafs -1.5 (-125)
- Prediction: Maple Leaf TT Over 3.5 (-150)
- Best bet: Maple Leafs -1.5 (-125)
Predictions made on 1/5/2022 at 12:10 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Oilers vs Maple Leafs game info
• Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ontario
• Date: Wednesday, January 5, 2022
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet
Oilers vs Maple Leafs betting preview
Injuries
Oilers: Connor McDavid F (Out), Mike Smith G (Questionable), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins F (Questionable), Kris Russell D (Out).
Maple Leafs: Auston Matthews F (Questionable), Ondrej Kase F (Questionable), Nick Ritchie F (Questionable).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Oilers vs Maple Leafs head-to-head record (since 2021)
Oilers: 3-7 SU, 20 goals for.
Maple Leafs: 7-3 SU, 36 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The favorite is 17-7 SU in the last 24 meetings. Find more NHL betting trends for Oilers vs. Maple Leafs.
Oilers vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Puck line analysis
Since starting the season on a 16-5 SU heater, Dave Tippett and the Edmonton Oilers have gone 2-10 SU in their last 12. Making matters worse Wednesday night was the positive COVID test from Connor McDavid that will keep him out of the lineup tonight. He’ll join fellow centermen Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Derek Ryan on the sidelines as well as goalie Mike Smith.
The Oilers were already struggling to score of late, as they’re averaging 2.50 goals per game over their last 10, which ranks as the fifth-worst mark in hockey. That's one spot below the Chicago Blackhawks, who are the league’s worst offense at 5-on-5. There’s a reason likely starter Mikko Koskinen is telling the media that the blame shouldn’t be put squarely on him, as he can’t score goals.
Edmonton has dropped all four games coming out of the break and has been held to two or fewer goals in three of them. Since their 5-2 win vs. the Penguins on December 1, the Oilers have gone 2-10 SU and were held to two or fewer goals in eight of those losses. Now, they have to regroup without McDavid against a Toronto team that blanked the Senators 6-0 in their only post-Christmas game and are allowing just 2.28 goals per game at home this season.
Auston Matthews is probable to suit up after testing negative for COVID on Tuesday. He’ll need another negative test to play, which is likely. Although he was held off the scoresheet for the first time in 11 games versus the Senators, Matthews still has 18 points over his last 11 games with six multi-point matches. He had five goals in six games versus the Oilers last season and added two more goals in a 5-1 win in Edmonton in December.
It’s not just Matthews that Edmonton will have to contain. This Leafs’ team is back to full strength, as Mitch Marner is over his shoulder injury while the blueline has recovered with the returns of Jake Muzzin, Morgan Reilly and Travis Dermott. The Leafs had a little bump in the road in December with some injuries, but now they should look more like the team that led the league in points percentage over a two-month stretch.
Facing confirmed starter Jack Campbell will not help Edmonton’s scoring funk. Campbell is coming off a 23-save shutout versus the Senators and leads the league in GAA (1.86) and save percentage (.939). He stopped 35 of 36 shots against McDavid and the Oilers just before the break in a 5-1 win and is 3-0 SU with a 1.90 GAA versus Edmonton over his career.
The Leafs have seen more than their fair share of the Western Conference Oilers over the last year as they were both in the North Division a season ago. Toronto is 7-2 SU in the last 9 meetings with those two losses coming in OT. With no McDavid (officially out) and a handful of other role players, we aren’t betting on this sinking Edmonton ship anytime soon. Give us the Buds on the puck line again.
This is the same price as the Ottawa vs. Toronto game from last Saturday. That’s how much McDavid means to this Edmonton team.
Prediction: Maple Leafs -1.5 (-125)
Over/Under analysis
The Leafs were 8-2 to the Over in their 10 games before the break, as the offense had scored 43 goals over that stretch but with McDavid out and this Edmonton team squeezing the stick, we aren’t expecting much two-way scoring tonight.
The Leafs held the Oilers to just one goal in Edmonton back on December 14 with Jack Campbell finishing with 2.47 goals saved above expected. Campbell was the reason why Toronto was the best Under team in hockey over the first two months of the season and now that he's rested, the Buds might offer some value on the Under going forward, as the market has priced them as an Over team with their recent scoring success.
Even with McJesus in the lineup, the Oilers were 7-3 to the Under over their last 10 games and scoring is the obvious reason behind the lower-output games. Edmonton is scoring 2.50 goals per game over that stretch with a power play that has a 20% success rate which ranks in the bottom half of the league.
With Mike Smith on the shelf, Mikko Koskinen will likely get the nod. He has been taking a ton of heat in the media of late and it may be warranted with his recent play. Over his last six games, he’s surrendered 24 total goals, which included five versus the Leafs before the break. It’s tough to trust the Under 6 here with Koskinen playing, which has us eyeing the Leafs’ team total of 3.5 yet again.
With all four lines back to full strength (minus Ondrej Kase), the Leafs should be able to pot at least four goals again versus an Edmonton team that is averaging 3.70 goals against in its last 10 games. The Leafs’ power play is scoring at 47 percent over the last four weeks and with Edmonton’s penalty kill coming in shorthanded, Edmonton will be in tough versus Matthews and this elite PP.
With Koskinen in nets, we should be auto-fading at this point and because of that, we can’t get on this full-game total of 6. Instead, we’re pivoting to the team total market and hitting the Over 3.5 for the Maple Leafs even at the heavy price of -150. Toronto should dominate possession without McDavid driving the Edmonton offense and Koskinen is unlikely to steal the show.
Prediction: Maple Leafs team total Over 3.5 -150
Best bet
With very little value left in this line, the puck line still gives us the best odds. With a team total of 3.5 that is paying a hefty -150 to the Over, it’s surprising to see a PL of -125.
Edmonton is lacking scoring talent to keep pace with the Toronto offense, and with Campbell rested and proving to be one of the best goaltenders in hockey, we aren’t expecting the Oilers to tally more than two goals. Campbell owns a 1.73 GAA at home this season with three shutouts.
In what was supposed to be another exciting addition of Matthews vs. McDavid, it could end up being an all-Toronto showcase in front of a handful of spectators.
Pick: Maple Leafs -1.5 (-125)
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