In perhaps the most exciting game on Saturday’s slate, the Atlantic Division’s Toronto Maple Leafs host the Pacific Division’s Edmonton Oilers.
These two clubs just squared off on March 1, a contest that saw Edmonton grab a 5-2 win at Rogers Place.
Will the Oilers take care of business once again, or can the Maple Leafs get revenge on home ice? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Oilers vs. Maple Leafs on Saturday, March 11.
Oilers vs Maple Leafs best odds
Oilers vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions
Both of these heavyweights enter this contest in great form, with the Edmonton Oilers winning four of their last five games and the Toronto Maple Leafs winning five of their last seven. With that said, this contest should be priced closer to a coin flip, and I think there is value in backing Edmonton at +110 on the moneyline.
In terms of metrics, these teams are neck-and-neck. At 5-on-5, the Oilers rank fourth in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) and 12th in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60).
On the other side, at 5-on-5, Toronto ranks sixth in the league in xGF/60 and 10th in xGA/60. While this contest is a coin flip in terms of offensive and defensive production, the Oilers will have the advantage in net as goaltender Stuart Skinner is projected to start for Edmonton while Matt Murray is the confirmed starter for the Leafs.
This season, Skinner boasts a .913 save percentage (SV%) while Murray possesses a slightly lower .908 SV%. Not only does Skinner possesses better surface-level stats, but the greater disparity is in the underlying metrics.
Among starting goaltenders, Skinner ranks third in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5, sitting just behind Vezina Trophy favorites Linus Ullmark and Ilya Sorokin. If Murray qualified, he would rank just 16th among starting goaltenders in GSAx/60 at 5-on-5.
Edmonton possesses the better offense and the better goaltender while Toronto boasts the better defense and home ice, which is why I make this game closer to a pick‘em than the Oilers’ +110 odds would indicate.
My best bet: Oilers moneyline (+110 at bet365)
Looking to bet on some Leafs action? Join Sports Interaction, the best in Canada for new bettors.
Oilers vs Maple Leafs moneyline analysis
Connor McDavid has gone nuclear over the last few weeks, potting 12 goals while adding 10 assists over his last nine games. It has gotten to the point where the extraordinary has become the norm when it comes to No. 97, but perhaps the most surprising uptick in Edmonton’s play has been its strong defense since the All-Star break.
This blue line was bolstered with the acquisition of defenseman Mattias Ekholm from the Predators, a tough opponent to play against. Backing up this improved defense is Skinner, who shut down Toronto just over a week ago.
In that game, he stopped 26 of 28 pucks for a .929 SV% en route to the Oilers’ 5-2 win over the Leafs. That was Skinner’s lone career start against Toronto, but with how strong he has played in net this season, another strong outing would not be shocking.
Oilers vs Maple Leafs Over/Under analysis
This matchup has all the makings of a track race, which is typically the case when Edmonton plays. The Oilers love to play fast and go south to north as quickly as possible, which is a big reason why the Over is 40-21-5 for them this season.
Many books opened this total at seven, with the option of laying nearly a half-dollar of juice on the Over at 6.5.
I do not want to lay -150 on the Over at 6.5, but I also do not feel confident enough in seeing eight goals to take the Over at seven. There have now been seven or fewer total goals scored in each of the last 12 meetings between these two clubs.
On top of that, Skinner enters this contest in great form. Over his last four starts, he is 4-0 with a .927 SV% and 2.25 GAA.
Oilers vs Maple Leafs betting trend to know
The Oilers have won four of their last five games. Find more NHL betting trends for Oilers vs Maple Leafs.
Oilers vs Maple Leafs game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Saturday, March 11, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBC |
Oilers vs Maple Leafs key injuries
