In a battle of two underperforming teams, the Florida Panthers take their sub-.500 record to altitude and face the Colorado Avalanche as +110 road dogs.
These are two of the books’ most overvalued teams, but with the Avs getting healthy and Florida down nearly 13 units this season when betting them on the moneyline, is Colorado the better of the overvalued clubs tonight?
Find out in my free NHL picks and predictions for Panthers vs. Avalanche.
Panthers vs Avalanche best odds
Panthers vs Avalanche picks and predictions
Nathan MacKinnon might be back, but it’s Mikko Rantanen and his shot market I’m looking to hit the Over tonight.
Rantanen has back-to-back games with nine shots on net. He’s currently playing on the second line without MacKinnon, meaning he is the shooter alongside JT Compher and Alex Newhook as setup men. The Avs could get Dennis Malgin and/or Val Nichuskin back tonight, but even if they suit up (I’m pessimistic), it will only help Rantanen who will see more talent on his line.
Rantanen will also have a ton of chances on the power play with the Panthers being the most penalized team in hockey. The Colorado forward has seven shots on net over the last two games with the man advantage. Since MacKinnon has returned, the PP1 unit is playing over 75% of the power play.
KrashWagers.
MacKinnon’s shot total is at 4.5 and priced at -160 for the Over, but Rantanen at -118 for the Over 3.5 might be a better play. In the four games since MacKinnon has returned, Rantanen has 21 shots and 35 shot attempts.
Not playing with MacKinnon at 5-on-5 is much better for his shot totals and he's getting better matchups because of it, which could go a long way vs. a Florida team that will likely use Alex Barkov more on MacKinnon.
My best bet: Mikko Rantanen Over 3.5 shots on goal (-118 at BetRivers)
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Panthers vs Avalanche moneyline analysis
The Panthers currently sit six points out of the final wild-card spot in the East with an 18-23 SU record and a minus-eight goal differential. They're 4-6 SU in their last 10 and have the fifth-worst point percentage on the road (.386%) with a minus-0.96 goal differential per game. They’re on the third match of a four-game road trip which wraps up in Vegas on Thursday. It's not a great schedule spot for the visitors, who also have to deal with altitude.
Florida is coming off a 5-1 loss to the Dallas Stars on Sunday which was their fifth-straight loss vs. a team with a winning record. The former President Trophy winners are at the halfway point of the season and things aren’t looking good.
The Panthers rank in the middle of the league in goal production and Bottom 10 in GAA, while both their power play and penalty kill rank outside the Top 20. Their 5-on-5 numbers aren’t far off from their expected metrics, and it’s safe to say after the roster moves in the offseason, this is an average team.
Books are still pricing this team as a Top-10 club and betting the Panthers on the moneyline every game would have put bettors nearly 13 units in the hole, making Florida one of the most overrated teams in hockey.
The Avs can be overvalued in plenty of spots but the books have adjusted their rankings on the reigning champs which likely has more to do with the injuries they’ve played through this season.
Despite a disappointing 38 games to start the season, Colorado is still 20-15-3 and two points out of a playoff spot and have played four fewer games.
MacKinnon is back (1-3 SU in his four games since returning) and although Gabriel Landeskog, Bowen Byram, and Josh Manson remain out, Evan Rodrigues drew in last game (two assists in a 3-2 win over Edmonton), and Dennis Malgin (day-to-day) and Val Nichushkin (day-to-day) are possible to suit up tonight.
Colorado has been playing without the majority of their top-six forwards all season, plus two of their best defensemen. It’s impressive they’re playing above .500 hockey and with bodies returning, this could be a very dangerous team going forward.
Looking at goaltending, Spencer Knight has really struggled of late with a 3.62 GAA since December 1 and a 3-4 SU record. Sergei Bobrovsky will likely draw the start after collecting the 3-2 win vs. Detroit in his last outing. He has a 2.94 GAA and a 4-6 SU record over his last 10 games and needs goal support to get wins.
Alex Georgiev will likely start for the home side with Pavel Francouz still out. The Colorado goalie has just a single win over his last six games but will have a better offense in front of him tonight. Georgiev has a positive goals saved above expected/60 (GSAx/60) on the season while Bobrovsky and Knight both sit in the negatives in the critical goaltending stat.
Colorado has a slight edge in special teams and I would have the Avs as a 10-15 point favorite on neutral ice. That puts my price for the Avs today at roughly -155, giving me a little expected value on the home side today at -130.
Panthers vs Avalanche Over/Under analysis
Because of all the injuries, the Avalanche have not been scoring like they did last year, which is a reason for a very profitable 13-23-3 O/U record on the season. They're 3-6-1 O/U in their last 10 and those three Overs came on closing totals of 5.5.
Books are actually pretty split on this total. Some books opened at 6, others at 6.5 while at the time of writing, bettors could find the 6 and the 6.5 widely available.
With the choice of either of those totals, I’d likely take a longer look at the Over 6, but I'm not betting this total for transparency.
These were two of the top-four scoring offenses in hockey last year. Colorado is getting healthier and Florida is averaging over 6.5 total goals per game thanks to an average offense that might be underperforming when looking at xgoal% and some below-average goaltending — especially of late.
Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in penalty killing, which is likely the biggest factor pushing me to the Over 6.
Florida takes the most minor penalties per game and draws the second most, and now with MacKinnon back in the lineup, Colorado is seeing more penalties called. The Avs have had a power play or been shorthanded 34 times over the four games that Nate Mac has been back.
If either of these power plays can get going — and both teams have the talent — multiple special-team goals could be very likely, favoring the Over.
With the uncertainty across the market on the total, bettors who can shop around can get some great value.
Panthers vs Avalanche betting trend to know
The Panthers are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Find more NHL betting trends for Panthers vs Avalanche.
Panthers vs Avalanche game info
| Location: | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date: | Tuesday, January 10, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN+, Sportsnet One |
