Panthers vs Capitals Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Kuznetsov Gets Green Light

The Washington Capitals will continue their playoff push without Alex Ovechkin tonight as they host the Florida Panthers as +100 home dogs.

Ovechkin is out indefinitely with the passing of his father and will miss a second straight game. Can an offense that has mustered just five goals in three games since the All-Star break overcome his absence while also playing its fourth game in six nights?

Find out my best bets for the Panthers vs. Capitals in my NHL betting picks and predictions.

Panthers vs Capitals best odds

Panthers vs Capitals picks and predictions

With the Capitals struggling to score and now without Alex Ovechkin, the only answer for the offense is more shots — and Florida is a great team to allow that.

The Capitals landed 36 shots on net vs. the Hurricanes on Tuesday, which was the first game without Ovechkin and against the No. 1 shot-suppressing team in Carolina. Now they welcome the Panthers who are also playing their fourth game in six nights (third in four nights, too) and give up 32.5 shots per game — the eighth-highest rate in hockey. 

Looking at the line shuffle, Evgeny Kuznetzov gets the biggest bump. He joins the first power play unit and looks to be taking the draws. He had two shot attempts and led the team with ice time at 5-on-4 vs. the Hurricanes and finished with four SOG, five attempts, and 20:45 in ice time, marking the most he’s played in 16 games. The Washington power play will be busy as the Panthers take the most penalties in the league.

Without Ovi, Kuznetsov is now the team’s leader in points per game at 0.80 and looks to be getting a bigger role in the absence of the prolific scorer.

The center is not a heavy volume shot forward at just 2.3 SOG per game on the season, but at +135 for Over 2.5 and this expanded role, this is solid value even if you project just 2.5 shots on net. I have him for just under 3.0 shots but the plus money makes this +EV on my projections. This price is implying just Under 2.0 shots on net. 

My best bet: Evgeny Kuznetzov Over 2.5 shots on goal (+136)

Panthers vs Capitals moneyline analysis

In their first game without Alex Ovechkin (loss in the family), the Caps managed two goals in a 3-2 loss to the Hurricanes despite 3.75 expected goals, per Money Puck. Goals have not come easily of late for fifth-place Washington, who sit two points up on the Panthers for the last playoff spot in the East.

Since the All-Star break, the Capitals have failed to score more than two goals in any of their three games (1-2 SU) and own the No. 28 offense (2.53 goals per game) since January 1. Losing Ovechkin’s team-leading 1.00 points per game is not helping an already bad situation. 

Making things worse is a rough schedule for the home side that opened as long as +115. Tonight will mark the team’s fourth game since Saturday, but despite the pessimistic narrative, the Panthers also come with some concerns.

Florida will be playing its fourth in six nights and third in four. It's managed just seven goals over its previous three games, is 0-for-17 on the power play, and could be without Sam Bennett (0.63 points per game). It’s tough to convince me that Florida would be a -155 favorite on neutral ice which the moneyline is indicating.

The Panthers have been one of the most overvalued teams all season and have lost straight moneyline bettors 8.78u this season. They just lost to St. Louis on the road on Tuesday, 6-2, as -135 road favorites. They’re 7-7 SU in their last 14 road games as a favorite and rank 27th in point percentage on the road with a -0.81 goal differential per game.

I also think the edge in net goes to the Caps tonight.

Darcy Kuemper hasn’t been stacking wins of late, but he also isn’t getting much support as he’s 2-5 SU in his last seven games but owns an impressive 1.86 GAA and a .936 SV%. That’s compared to Sergei Bobrovsky who is 15-16 SU with a 3.05 GAA, and although his recent form has been an improvement, he's still been an inconsistent goalie and owns a sub-.900 SV% on the road — 23 points lower than at home. 

It’s not an easy schedule spot for either team but that also favors the home side, in my opinion. The market is already moving towards the Caps and I’ll have to agree here as the loss of Ovechkin is big, but this is also a team that's returned bodies and can win low-scoring games with the play of Kuemper. 

Panthers vs Capitals Over/Under analysis

With a pair of cold offenses who are also missing key scoring pieces in Ovechkin and Bennett, it wouldn’t surprise me to see this 6.5 total take money on the Under. The Caps have seen a closing total of 6.0 or lower in eight of their last 10 and that includes three games of 5.5.

However, with the Panthers having closed at 6.5 or 7 in 20 straight games, this match will not see 6.0. The Over 6.5 is currently -120 and I’d expect this to close at around -110.

Kuemper has been great of late — he just isn’t getting the goals to support the play. While Bobrokvsky’s splits aren’t great, he's been more than steady lately and has held the opposition to one or fewer goals in four of his last six.

Florida games see an average of 9.46 total penalties per game which is the most in the league, but its power play comes in very cold at one for its last 22 opportunities and the penalty kill has surrendered just two goals over its last seven games. 

The Washington power play takes a huge hit without Ovechkin and went 0-for-3 in the first game the captain missed. 

The Capitals are averaging just 5.7 total goals per game on home ice and are 22-31 O/U on the season, and with the Panthers being such darlings for Over bettors, the value tonight is on the Under with these two struggling offenses.

Panthers vs Capitals betting trend to know

The Panthers are 0-6 SU in their last six games vs. the Metropolitan. Find more NHL betting trends for Panthers vs Capitals.

Panthers vs Capitals game info

Panthers vs Capitals key injuries

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