The All-Star break is over and it’s time to get back to business for the Boston Bruins and Pittsburgh Penguins as these two Eastern teams will meet for the first time this season tonight at TD Garden.
Can the Penguins generate enough Top-6 offense with the absence of Evgeni Malkin (COVID)? Are the Bruins a better team with Jeremy Swayman back as Tuukka Rask nurses a lower-body injury? Find out in our free NHL betting picks and predictions for Penguins vs. Bruins.
Penguins vs Bruins odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Bruins opened as -130 favorites on the ML and have moved between -125 and -135. The total opened at 5.5 and has hit 6 at some books as of Tuesday morning. This is the shortest Boston has been at home since closing as -125 home favorites versus the Hurricanes on January 18.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Penguins vs Bruins predictions
Predictions made on 2/08/2022 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Penguins vs Bruins game info
• Location: TD Garden, Boston, MA
• Date: Tuesday, February 8, 2022
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: NESN, ATTSN-PT
Penguins vs Bruins betting preview
Key injuries
Penguins: Evgeni Malkin F (Out), Danton Heinen F (Questionable).
Bruins: Erik Haula F (Probable), Nick Foligno F (Questionable), Tuukka Rask G (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Penguins vs Bruins head-to-head record
Penguins: 3-5 SU, 19 goals for.
Bruins: 5-3 SU, 21 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The home team is 24-7 SU in the last 31 meetings. Find more NHL betting trends for Penguins vs. Bruins.
Penguins vs Bruins picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Moneyline analysis
The Bruins headed into the break with a 2-3 SU mark over their last five but this is still a Boston team that went 12-4-1 since January 1, which was the sixth-best point percentage in hockey. Over that stretch, this newly confident offense is scoring over 3.5 goals per game and has the second-best power play in hockey. They’ve uncharacteristically been giving up goals at a high rate (3.00 per game) but a lot of that had to do with Tuukka Rasks’ struggles.
Rask is on the shelf and that means the bromance of Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman will be back in charge of protecting the crease. Swayman will get the nod Tuesday night and that shows the trust the coaching staff has in the young goalie who was sent down to Providence when Rask came up. Swayman came in relief of Ullmark in the final game before the break but the young goalie has a 2.31 GAA and has allowed three or more goals in just six of his 16 starts. He’ll face a Pittsburgh team that has struggled to get secondary scoring and will be without Evgeni Malkin thanks to COVID.
The Penguins had to sit on a four-game losing skid over the All-Star break with all four of those defeats coming on home ice. They played 10 games in 17 days before the break and were very dependent on the Sidney Crosby line and its power play to motor the offense. With Boston getting the last change, Bruce Cassidy will get to match up well against the Rust-Crosby-Guentzel line and put stress on Kasperi Kapanen and Evan Rodrigues as both forwards have a combined three points over their last 12 games.
The Pittsburgh power play was cruising to an unsustainable 9 for 17 mark before the break and now faces a Boston penalty kill that has killed 11 of its last 12 penalties and ranks in the Top 5 over the last month. Pittsburgh’s PK has been incredible this year but Boston has the edge in 5-on-5 with the lowest expected goals at even strength.
Offensively, the Bruins are still rolling two incredible scoring lines. David Pastrnak has posted multi-point games in seven of his last 13 and neither he nor Brad Marchand made the trip to the All-Star Game. Additionally, it’s also uncertain who they'll see in net with Pittsburgh goalie Tristan Jarry taking part in All-Star festivities over the weekend. If Casey DeSmith gets the start, this line will plummet.
Ultimately, this is a game between two similarly built teams that share many of the same strengths. The last change for Boston is huge as Cassidy will get to match up against the Crosby line and without Geno on the second line, this team isn’t nearly as deep offensively as it is with him. Home ice is usually worth around 20 points, which makes this game basically a pick ‘em.
We’re riding the Bruins. The Penguins had to think about their four-game losing streak all week, their goalie was in the All-Star game, and they’ll also be without their second-best skater. If the Pittsburgh bottom-six packed more of an offensive punch, this might make things different, but their struggles are tough to back and Crosby and Bryan Rust can’t shoulder the load every single night.
Prediction: Bruins ML (-130)
Over/Under analysis
Not all books are committed to the 6 and there is likely a reason for that. Although both of teams are sporting elite scoring on their top lines and own Top 5 power plays, it just isn’t a great matchup offensively for either team.
The Penguins have the best penalty kill in hockey while the Bruins PK has found its mojo over the last five weeks. Both these teams are Top 10 in Fenwick and Corsi%, Top 5 in expected goal differential and xgoal% at even strength.
These teams met eight times last season and the Under went 7-1 with only one total closing at 6 and that was a 1-0 Pittsburgh win that featured Tristan Jarry and Jeremy Swayman in net.
Jarry saw the Bruins five times last season and although he finished with a 2-3 SU record, he also had a 2.16 GAA to go along with a .931 save percentage. Jarry stumbled a bit before the break with four goals allowed in consecutive games, but this is still a goalie who made it to the All-Star game and is currently eighth in Vezina odds.
The similarities these teams share are uncanny and likely a reason the Over only hit once in their eight meetings last season. Both teams are great at 5-on-5 and each club has been terrific at killing penalties. Neither club was red-hot offensively before the stoppage and Pittsburgh’s reliance on first-line scoring should be something Cassidy and the Bruins keep in check.
Boston will also want to play well in front of Swayman, who will be making his first start since being sent down to the minors for an ineffective Rask. If Swayman performs tonight, he could gain some serious ground on the goalie depth chart.
Pittsburgh is the most disciplined team in hockey, taking the fewest penalties in the league per game while also sporting the league’s best PK. Extra-strength markers could be hard to come by tonight and we aren’t expecting a shootout. We’re paying the tax and hitting the 6 instead of the 5.5.
Prediction: Under 6 (-122)
Best bet
This is as tight as a handicap as it gets in the Eastern Conference. These teams are built similarly, have great coaching, and feature a solid blend of elite veterans, role players, and decent offensive defensemen. It’s because of these similarities that these two clubs managed just 40 total goals in the eight meetings from last season. One team was held to one or fewer goals in six of those eight matchups.
With two teams that went into the break in mediocre form, we’d expect a sharp game from both clubs. Boston getting last change will help tie up the Rust-Crosby-Guentzel and force Pittsburgh to rely on secondary scoring, which has not been its forte over the last two to three weeks. Some trends are meaningless but these clubs have played some tight, low-scoring affairs dating back to last season. We’ll gladly take the Under 6 and pay a few points.
Pick: Under 6 (-122)
NHL parlays
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