The Washington Capitals host the Pittsburgh Penguins at Capital One Arena on Friday, November 8, and longtime rival superstars Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby will go head-to-head again in their respective 20th tours through the NHL.
It was Pittsburgh and Crosby having all the fun for years, but it’s Ovechkin and Washington laughing loudest this season — and my Penguins vs. Capitals predictions expect the Caps to continue their early-season heater tonight.
Read all about it in the NHL picks below.
Penguins vs Capitals prediction
My best bet
Capitals in regulation (+100 at Pinnacle)
My analysis
There’s no statistical comparison between the Washington Capitals and Pittsburgh Penguins to start the 2024-25 season. Pittsburgh made peripheral moves during the offseason and never replaced winger Jake Guentzel after dealing him to the Carolina Hurricanes at last year’s trade deadline.
Add years of trading prospects and draft picks during their contending stretch, and the Pens have a top-heavy roster with veterans playing their twilight years. Their 5-8-2 start is a reflection of their roster.
It was just the opposite for the Caps. The Washington brass was active this summer to bolster the roster, and the immediate returns have been rewarding. The Capitals are off to a 9-3 start and rolling at Capital One with a 7-1 home-ice record.
With Pittsburgh playing the second leg of a back-to-back road set after being shellacked by the Carolina Hurricanes 5-1 on Thursday, I anticipate Washington improving to 8-1 at home with a convincing win tonight.
After all, this is largely a statistical mismatch, with the Penguins only holding court on special teams and in 5-on-5 possession. And I expect statistical correction coming for the Washington power play after posting a middling 20.6 PP% last year.
 Pittsburgh Penguins |
 Washington Capitals |
|
|---|---|---|
| 5-on-5 CF% | 52.5 (ninth) | 49.4 (18th) |
| 5-on-5 xGF% | 51.9 (10th) | 55.8 (fourth) |
| Goals per game | 2.8 (20th) | 4.08 (fourth) |
| Goals against per game | 3.8 (30th) | 2.92 (eighth) |
| Power-play percentage | 20.5% (14th) | 9.3% (32nd) |
It’s also notable the Pens drop to a 14th-ranked 51.4 CF% when adjusted for score and venue because they’ve spent the ninth-highest time (26:47) trailing per game in the league. Washington is 16th with a 51.0% mark, too.
Finally, I also value the Capitals having the superior goaltending with a .905 team SV% at 5-on-5 and .895 overall mark compared to the respective .888 and .882 ratios for the Pens.
Penguins vs Capitals same-game parlay (SGP)
Capitals in regulation
Connor McMichael Over 0.5 points
Connor McMichael Over 2.5 shots
It’s been a breakout stretch for Caps winger Connor McMichael to start the season, as he’s showing off the offensive skill that made him a first-round pick in the 2019 draft and a consistent scorer in both the OHL and AHL.
McMichael has marked the scoresheet in nine of 12 games and recorded three or more shots in six of 12, including four of his past five. He’s skating with the top PP unit, and McMichael has averaged 18:10 of ice time per night (3:15 with the man advantage) during the noted five-game stretch compared to 15:54 and 1:34 averages to start the year.
I also value McMichael ranking fourth in points per 60 (3.86) while pacing the Caps in shots (11.57) per 60. Plus, in addition to Pittsburgh allowing the third-most goals per game, it's also allowing a healthy 30.2 shots per contest.
The odds haven't fully caught up to McMichael's production yet.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Penguins vs Capitals odds
Penguins vs Capitals live odds
Penguins vs Capitals opening odds
- Puck line: Pittsburgh +1.5 (-189) | Washington -1.5 (+147)
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh +135 | Washington -160
- Over/Under: Over 6 (-120) | Under 6 (+100)
Penguins vs Capitals trend
The Washington Capitals are 7-1 at Capital One Arena this season. Find more NHL betting trends for Penguins vs. Capitals.
How to watch Penguins vs Capitals
| Location: | Capital One Arena, Washington, D.C. |
| Date: | Friday, 11-8-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | HULU |
Penguins vs Capitals latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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