The New York Islanders' chance at stealing home ice advantage was short-lived after splitting the first two games in Pittsburgh, with the Penguins taking game three in New York 5-4.
Can the Pens take a commanding 3-1 lead back to Pittsburgh with the chance to wrap up the series at home? Find out in our best free NHL betting picks and predictions for Penguins vs. Islanders on May 22 at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Penguins vs Islanders game info
• Location: Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, New York City, NY
• Date: Saturday, May 22, 2021
• Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC
Penguins vs Islanders odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NHL Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonNew York opened a slim -112 favorite Thursday night at DraftKings, then the moneyline moved to -108 pick 'em Friday morning, and its now Islanders -113. The bulk of the action, however, is on the Penguins, who are attracting 60 percent of tickets and 63 percent of cash. The total of 5.5 is shaded heavily to the Under, priced at -139, although the Over is seeing 64 percent of tickets/70 percent of money.
Check out the full line movement for this gamePenguins vs Islanders series odds
Penguins: -333
Islanders: +220
Penguins vs Islanders betting preview
Injuries
Penguins: Casey DeSmith G (Questionable).
Islanders: Anders Lee LW (Out), Johnny Boychuk D (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The home team is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the Penguins and Islanders. Find more NHL betting trends for Penguins vs. Islanders.
Moneyline pick
The Islanders' game three loss to the Penguins was crushing for the New York side for a number of reasons. The Isles saw the opportunity to steal home ice advantage slip away, a costly loss as New York was a stellar 21-4-3 at home this season and could have taken control of the series, between home ice and its suffocating style of play.
Even worse was the manner in which the Islanders lost to the Pens. After shipping a soft goal in game two in an otherwise strong performance, the usually steady Semyon Varlamov was exploited by Pittsburgh, allowing five goals on 27 shots, as he was unable to reward a three-goal third period from his team.
Going into a series against a shutdown defensive team like the Islanders, the Penguins were going to need to be clinical in order to take care of business, and thus far, they have been. Pittsburgh has the third-highest goals above expectation in the postseason, at 2.19, as it has netted 10 times in the series despite just three high-danger chances.
Most metrics suggest this has been an extremely tight series, with a 10-9 scoreline through three games and a difference of just 0.17 in expected goals.
Though the Penguins' clinical finishing could prove to be the difference over the course of the series, this matchup is so tight that it's difficult to see New York not getting the split at home.
PREDICTION: Islanders (-110)
Over/Under pick
It's surprising to see two of the last three wins for Pittsburgh over New York come in 2-1 games, as that's a scoreline that would typically reward the lockdown Isles as opposed to the more open Pens. However, Pittsburgh has done a good job of forcing New York to open up in this series, with nine- and seven-goal totals on either side of game two's 2-1 Penguins win. Even game two's Under, for that matter, was aided by stellar goaltending, as the two teams combined for 83 shots.
Game four should see more open hockey, with the Isles considerably more potent in front of the net at home as opposed to on the road. Pittsburgh goalie Tristan Jarry's road struggles continued in game three despite the win, with the Isles beating him four times on 30 shots. The netminder has a save percentage of .885 on the road this year, compared to .926 at home, and his goals against average is nearly a full goal higher away from home (3.25) than in Pittsburgh (2.35).
In the last seven games between these two in New York, the Over is 6-1. With the Islanders desperate to get back into the series and the Penguins looking to take control before returning home, expect another back-and-forth affair.
PREDICTION: Over 5.5 (+115)
Penguins vs Islanders betting card
- Islanders (-110)
- Over 5.5 (+115)
Picks made on 5/21/2021 at 7:25 p.m. ET
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