Plenty of eyes might be on the pillow fight in Texas, but on the ice there are five games and a lot of NHL player props to take advantage of.
Today, I'm wagering on a rookie getting a bigger role on the top power play unit in Columbus, continuing to bet on Connor McMichael — on whom the books refuse to adjust their point markets — and betting the Vegas offense vs. Utah team due for regression.
These are my three favorite NHL props for Friday, November 15.
NHL prop picks and best bets for November 15
McMichael o0.5 points (-120 at BET99)
Golden Knights TT o3.5 (+120 at DraftKings)
Fantilli o0.5 points (+105 at DraftKings)
Picks made on 11-15 at 9:45 a.m. ET.
Today’s NHL prop picks and best bets
Prop bet #1: Connor McMichael Over 0.5 points
Another Washington Capitals game and another ride on the Connor McMichael Over point prop that has hit in 12 of 15 games this year yet has not adjusted much. The second-line and PP1 skater has 16 points over his last 11 games and faces the Colorado Avalanche, who are giving up 4.09 goals per game at home — the second worst figure in hockey.
Games in Colorado are averaging 7.82 total goals and the Over at altitude is 9-1-1 on the season. Goals will be scored tonight in Colorado and especially by the Caps, who have the No. 2 scoring offense in hockey despite a power play that ranks 30th in the league.
McMichael has been one the best surprises of the NHL season and thanks to a talented top line of Dylan Strome and Alex Ovechkin. McMichael will always get good matchups. This prop should be at least -160 and I will add it to my NHL picks every time until the price adjusts.
Prop bet #2: Golden Knights team total Over 3.5
The Vegas Golden Knights own one of the best offenses in hockey, scoring 4.13 goals per game, which only trails the Jets. The offense is also expected as Vegas’ metrics indicate a team that should be scoring a lot. Tonight’s visitors have hit the 4+ goal mark in eight of their first 12 games.
It’s also a great matchup thanks to some unrepeatable numbers from the Utah Hockey Club. Carolina took a 4-1 loss there on Wednesday but had 50 shots and 7.99 expected goals. Getting that kind of goaltending in two straight games is very improbable.
Vegas also has a great special teams matchup with their Top-10 PP facing Utah’s Bottom-10 PK. This will be the second meeting this year, with Vegas winning 4-3 in OT while getting just one power-play opportunity. The offense could get a boost, as well, as top-liner Mark Stone is almost ready to rejoin the roster.
Prop bet #3: Adam Fantilli Over 0.5 points
The Columbus Blue Jackets are in the dumps. They’re currently riding a six-game losing streak and coming back from a five-game West Coast road trip. The lines are getting mixed up because of it and the former third-overall pick, Adam Fantilli, is jumping up to the top power play and centering the second line.
He is plus-money for a point vs. the Pittsburgh Penguins, who allow the second-most goals per game at 3.83 with some ugly even-strength metrics against. The Pens could jump out to an early lead tonight thanks to the heavy travel from the Jackets, but a negative game script will keep Fantilli on the ice, which has been a theme over the last four games. His average time on ice has jumped over two minutes from early-season averages.
This is also a game I have bet the Over 6.5 as two-way scoring should happen early and often. Stack him with Yegor Chinakov for +276 if you want, but the plus-money Over 0.5 points is a great deal on a player with more offensive opportunities that aren't being priced in.
NHL odds today
Here are the full NHL odds for all of today’s matchups.
Not intended for use in MA.
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