We have a small three-game NHL slate to work with on Sunday night but there is still plenty of value on the board.
Find out why my NHL player props for November 10 see value in backing a couple of skaters to hit the scoresheet, as well as a Chicago Blackhawks star in a sneaky good matchup.
NHL prop picks and best bets for November 10
Dougie Hamilton Over 0.5 points (-140 at DraftKings)
Seth Jones Over 2.5 shots on goal (+115 at bet365)
Yegor Chinakhov Over 0.5 points (-130 at DraftKings)
Picks made on 11-10 at 9:40 a.m. ET.
Today’s NHL prop picks and best bets
Prop bet #1: Dougie Hamilton Over 0.5 points
Dougie Hamilton is scorching hot. He has found the scoresheet in nine of his past 11 games played, totaling 12 points in that span.
He has been full value for his production. Hamilton ranks second among all defensemen in shots on goal and sits behind only Roman Josi and Quinn Hughes in terms of shot attempts.
The New Jersey Devils have legitimately threatened as much as anybody with Hamilton on the ice. They’ve piled up 251 shots on goal, 29.68 expected goals, and 35 actual goals during Hamilton’s minutes. He leads all defensemen in each of those categories.
What’s crazy is the data suggests Hamilton may still have more to give offensively. He’s picked up a point on only 34% of the goals he’s been on the ice for. He had an individual points percentage of at least 53% in each of the past two years, indicating he’s unlucky not to have factored in even more frequently than he has thus far.
If Hamilton had an IPP of 55% (his average from 2022-24), we’d be talking about a guy with 18 points in 17 games.
Hamilton has a great chance of hitting the scoresheet once again vs. the San Jose Sharks. They bleed shots and have allowed more goals than all but three teams this season.
Prop bet #2: Seth Jones Over 2.5 shots on goal
Seth Jones has cleared 2.5 shots in six of 15 games thus far (40%), but there’s plenty of reason to believe we could see a ceiling performance from him Sunday night.
Jones has fairly drastic home/road splits. He has averaged exactly three shots on goal per game in Chicago this season while amassing just 1.9 on the road. Location is a big factor for him and it’s working in his favor tonight.
While the Minnesota Wild are a great defensive team overall, they’re susceptible to giving up volume against defensemen. The Wild rank 24th in shot suppression vs. the position, sandwiching them between the Anaheim Ducks and Calgary Flames. Not where you want to be.
The Wild are playing their third road game in four nights against a rested Chicago Blackhawks team that’s been idle since Thursday. Fatigue could be a factor working in Chicago’s favor.
The Blackhawks are also off until Thursday after this game, meaning Jones could see a workload even larger than usual.
It’s also worth noting the Wild rank 31st in shot suppression while killing penalties. If they struggle with discipline, Jones (second on the Blackhawks in power play shot attempts) will greatly benefit from an advantageous matchup.
Prop bet #3: Yegor Chinakhov Over 0.5 points
Yegor Chinakhov is off to a strong start. He has nine points through 13 games and has found the scoresheet more often than not.
While he’s gone a little quiet of late, scheduling has no doubt played a big part in that. He’s coming out of a very difficult stretch in which he had to play the Maple Leafs, Jets, Capitals, and Kings – four of the NHL’s Top-10 teams when it comes to preventing goals.
This is a much better matchup for Chinakhov to do some damage offensively. The Anaheim Ducks are a trainwreck, ranking dead-last in shot suppression and expected goals allowed at 5v5 and on the penalty kill.
Chinakhov plays a prominent role for the Columbus Blue Jackets skating on their top line and top power play unit. Put another way, he’ll get plenty of ice in opportune situations to take advantage of Anaheim’s flawed defense.
NHL odds today
Here are the full NHL odds for all of today’s matchups.
Not intended for use in MA.
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