It wasn't a winning day yesterday, but with just two games on the slate tonight, it's easy to look at every market.
The Winnipeg Jets are somehow being undervalued as they open a long road trip but should be aided by some secondary scoring tonight while the Anaheim Ducks are likely to give up more shots to opposing D-men.
These are my three favorite NHL player props for Friday, November 22.
NHL prop picks and best bets for November 22
Perfetti o0.5 points (+135 at DraftKings)- Jets 3-way ML (+100 at DraftKings)
Dahlin 4+ SOG (+155 at bet365)
Picks made on 11-22 at 8:00 a.m. ET.
Today’s NHL prop picks and best bets
Prop bet #1: Cole Perfetti Over 0.5 points
The Winnipeg Jets will have a beauty of a matchup as they take on the Pittsburgh Penguins and their 31st-ranked 3.67 GAA. They also own a bottom-10 penalty kill and are 2-6 SU in the last eight with just one regulation win.
There is zero value on any of the top-line names from the Jets in a game where they are -162 favorites. However, secondary scorers are something to consider when buying some props for tonight's matchup.
Nikolaj Ehlers has the fourth-shortest odds for points tonight at -175. He plays on the second line with Vladislav Namestnikov and Cole Perfetti. Only Perfetti's on the second power play — he is also five points longer for a point than Namestnikov.
Perfetti is a former Top-15 pick and has 12 points in 19 games. It’s a game on the road where the second line should have the better matchups with the Pens focusing on the Jets’ top line.
Outside of taking the Jets in regulation, I like secondary scoring from Winnipeg on a small slate and Perfetti for a point at +135, which is about as big as a point market can get. If you're adventurous, the Namestnikov/Perfetti/Ehlers line is +460 to all record a point tonight.
Prop bet #2: Jets 3-way ML
The Jets are too short in this spot. This is arguably the best vs. the worst. No, the Pens aren’t at the bottom of the standings, but they aren’t far away either. They're dead last in the Atlantic and are only three points ahead of the Predators and Blackhawks, who sit in the league’s basement.
Pittsburgh ranks 26th in point percentage with Winnipeg being the best at .842%.
This is a game of the best point differential (+34 for Winnipeg) against the worst (-26 for Pittsburgh). It’s about as lopsided as it gets across 25% of the season and I have no idea why anyone would back the Pens in this spot having dropped four of their last five while Winnipeg snapped their only two-game losing streak and are opening up a six-game road trip.
It’s also a game of the best road record (9-1 SU) vs. one of the worst home records (3-8 SU). You can spend all day looking at the numbers and you won’t find any reasons to back the home side here.
Prop bet #3: Rasmus Dahlin 4+ SOG
The nightcap is a tough one. Both teams are actually playing well and I lean toward the Anaheim Ducks on the ML at +125 but they are also returning from Chicago while the Buffalo Sabres have already been in the state after a 1-0 win over the Kings on Tuesday.
When in doubt, bet on shots vs. Anaheim. They allow the most SOG at 34.1 per game and the travel from Chicago to California isn’t going to help them buck that trend.
Buffalo might have some line juggling as Tage Thompson is close to returning but one angle I love to bet on is defensemen SOG vs. the Ducks. Over the last two seasons, they have been one of the most generous teams to blueliners in that arena.
Rasmus Dahlin’s SOG total is 2.5 at -165 to the Over. It’s not a price I want to take but there are some ways to add to this that still work.
The first is 4+ SOG at +155. He has hit this in seven of his last 12 games and has 3+ SOG in 10 of those games. His SOG floor is legit and the matchup is the best in hockey.
The other bet is Dahlin o0.5 points + o2.5 SOG for +140. However, the Ducks have been keeping points off the board as they’ve allowed more than three goals just once over their last five games where they are 4-1 SU.
I like the 4+ SOG angle better at that price and because of his recent shooting frequency. The Anaheim travel also helps. Thomas Harley, Albert Johansson, Noah Hanifin., and Zach Werenski are D-men who have all hit the 4+ SOG mark vs. Anaheim over the last five games with Werenski hitting the eight SOG mark.
NHL odds today
Here are the full NHL odds for all of today’s matchups.
Not intended for use in MA.
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