Coming off another winning night, bettors are getting a much bigger board tonight with a 12-game slate including both teams returning from The Global Series.
I'm throwing together a top-line stack for a grouping that could have multiple points tonight. I'm also backing the Tampa Bay Lightning offense in a get-right spot, and hitting the SOG market for a player the books have been slow to adjust.
These are my three favorite NHL player props for Thursday, November 7.
NHL prop picks and best bets for November 7
Lightning TT o3.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
Meier + Mercer o0.5 points each (+254 at DraftKings)
Ryan Donato 3+ SOG (+190 at bet365)
Picks made on 11-7 at 11:45 a.m. ET.
Today’s NHL prop picks and best bets
Prop bet #1: Tampa Bay team total Over 3.5
This is a great price in a get-right spot for the Tampa Bay Lightning. They return home after dropping three straight on the road but welcome the Philadelphia Flyers, who are awful and have question marks in net.
Philly's top goalie, Sam Ersson, is questionable but skated this morning. He is one of the weaker starting goalies in the league and if he doesn't go today, he could give way to the worst reserve netminder situation in the league. The Flyers have two sub-par backups who are 0-6 SU with a combined save percentage below .860. This line is priced for an Ersson start but he is not 100% and I love the Lightning snapping the skid at home.
The Flyers have allowed 4+ goals in seven of their nine losses and 10 of 13 overall. There is also a chance the Tampa offense could get a huge boost with the return of Brayden Point, who missed one game and is listed as questionable. This line is only going to get shorter if Point plays and/or Ersson sits.
Philadelphia is a great team to fade right now and they'll also be without rookie star Matvei Michkov.
Prop bet #2: Timo Meier + Dawson Mercer Over 0.5 points each
The New Jersey Devils offense has the best matchup of the night as they welcome the Montreal Canadiens, who are allowing 4.00 goals per game and have the worst defensive metrics at 5-on-5. The Habs have been involved in some blowouts as they've given up 6+ goals in four of their last 10 games while also getting burned on the penalty kill with five PP goals allowed over their last 14 kills.
I'm targeting the top line here for a point as Timo Meier and Dawson Mercer flank center Nico Hischier but I'm pairing the wingers as they play together on the second power-play unit. This bet might not need a PP goal as the Canadiens have been atrocious at even strength and the duo has pointed together in three of the last four games.
This could be the most one-sided game of the evening and I'm getting great plus money for a top line to collect a point vs. a team that is bleeding goals.
Prop bet #3: Ryan Donato 3+ shots on goal
Ryan Donato won me a lot of money last night as I laddered his SOG props from three to five successfully. It was an elite SOG matchup vs. the Red Wings and his 3+ SOG market has gone from +150 to +190 because of a tougher matchup tonight vs. the Dallas Stars while on his second game in two nights.
However, this might actually be a great spot for the Chicago Blackhawks and the top-line winger as the Stars are playing their first game back from Finland where they got dominated by the Panthers. Chicago is also being discounted because of the back-to-back but that might be an advantage today vs. a well-traveled team that has been idle since Saturday.
Since joining the top line with Connor Bedard, Donato has put together games of five shots (twice) and four. His minutes are up substantially and his shooting rate/60 leads his team and ranks in the Top-25 in hockey. The books have not priced in his minutes boost yet.
It may look like a bad matchup on paper, but there are some edges for the Chicago offense tonight.
NHL odds today
Here are the full NHL odds for all of today’s matchups.
Not intended for use in MA.
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