It was a good night last night thanks to an added secondary assist that turned the Monday card into a 2-0 SU and +2.7-unit night. It has been a grind this calendar year, so nights like those are always appreciated.
Tonight features a massive 14-game slate, which means picking three NHL player props is a breeze with a lot of lines juggling. These are my favorite NHL picks for Tuesday, February 4.
NHL prop picks and best bets for February 4
Sillinger o0.5 points (+120 at bet365)
Harley o0.5 assists (+135 at bet365)
Nelson u0.5 points (+100 at bet365)
Today’s NHL prop picks and best bets
Cole Sillinger Over 0.5 points (+120 at bet365)
Many were thinking it would be Kent Johnson taking the top-line winger spot following the Kirill Marchenko injury, but it was Cole Sillinger moving to the opportunistic spot for the Columbus Blue Jackets. He is projected to play on the top power play as well and more minutes and better opportunities are not priced into his current Over 0.5 points of +120, which is a buy to around -125/-120.
The winger/center has already pointed in three straight and gets a good matchup vs. the Buffalo Sabres, who rank 28th in expected goals against/60 over the last 10 days and 27th in GAA over the last 30 days.
Columbus has been rolling despite some serious hurdles this year and is clinging to the last wild card in the East. Sillinger is ready for the expanded role and the price has not adjusted to his extra minutes and opportunities. There are a lot of checks here. The full line triple stack is +375.
Thomas Harley Over 0.5 assists (+135 at bet365)
Thomas Harley is easting minutes for the Dallas Stars, who are without Miro Heiskanen and Nils Lundkvist. Heiskanen was playing over 25 minutes per game and Harley has jumped from 22:30 to 25 lately. The Stars were rolling with seven D-men two games ago, but it was a six-man rotation on Sunday where Harley finished with two assists (one on the power play) with both coming as primary helpers.
It’s also arguably the best matchup for defenders who just stack stats vs. the Anaheim Ducks. The Mallards have some of the worst expected goal metrics in hockey and Lukas Dostal is fading during the middle of the season with a .889 save percentage over the last 30 days. That illness is also going through the Anaheim locker room as Troy Terry was a late scratch on Sunday.
Harley is as short as -140 for a point (some -110s available) but the assist at +135 (a buy to +115/+120) is what I’m betting. This should be priced in the Josh-Morrissey range of around -125 for a point and +110 for an assist. After the Mikael Granlund trade, this Dallas offense is loaded.
Brock Nelson Under 0.5 points (+100 at bet365)
While most people might be looking to bet Anthony Duclair for a point at +140 (not a bad look at all), betting against this New York Islanders offense that just lost Mathew Barzal and will face the Vegas Golden Knights is the better route.
Brock Nelson is playing on the second line which usually has a lower impact in home games as Patrick Roy would likely throw the top line over the boards if given the choice and both rested, but Nelson has also been demoted off the top power play. New York has moved Duclair and Simon Holstrom to the top PP, which hurts Nelson's point probability, and he is a solid +100 to go pointless in the projected low-scoring game.
The Under stack with Kyle Palmieri is paying +190 at bet365 while the Duclair and Bo Horvat Over stack is a solid +250. Nelson has gone without a point in three straight and saw his TOI drop to 16:29 last game, which is down significantly from his season average of 19:10.
NHL odds today
Here are the full NHL odds for all of today’s matchups.
Not intended for use in MA.
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