Predators vs Maple Leafs Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Tavares Leads by Example

The Toronto Maple Leafs will wrap up a five-game home stand and take on the hottest goalie in hockey in Juuse Saros tonight as the Buds host the Nashville Predators as -200 favorites.

The big news isn’t who the Leafs are playing, but more who they won’t have in the lineup, as Auston Matthews missed practice Tuesday and has been ruled out for tonight’s non-conference match. Will Leafs captain John Tavares step up in Matthews' absence?

Find out my best bet for Predators vs. Maple Leafs, and check out Covers' NHL picks and predictions and NHL odds for Wednesday night.

Predators vs Maple Leafs best odds

Predators vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions

There are a lot of moving pieces to tonight’s game. Auston Matthews is out. William Nylander will move to center. Pierre Engvall will play on the top line. TJ Brodie is out and Conor Timmins is in. Meanwhile, Juuse Saros comes in as the best goaltender in the NHL over the last 30 days.

Saros has been great of late, and his team has been allowing a god-awful amount of shots. The Finnish goaltender has made over 100 saves in his last two games alone, and is averaging 35.8 saves per game in his last 10 starts. He’s posted a 2.18 GAA over that stretch, but it’s a pretty unsustainable rate — even vs. an offense without Matthews. 

The safest angle in this game is that Nashville will allow plenty of shots. It's allowed at least 32 shots in eight of their last 10 games, and 374 total shots over that stretch. The Leafs will get plenty of pucks on net tonight.

Nylander’s move to center could cut into his offensive production as he worries more about his defensive responsibilities. That could hurt Michael Bunting as well. However, John Tavares will still be on his familiar line with Mitch Marner and Calle Jarnkrok. The captain also has a goal in three straight games, and has at least three shots in 18 of his last 22 contests.

Tavares could also move on from net-front position on the power play, which could get him some more open looks with the man advantage. 

With Matthews out and his line staying intact, Tavares should shoulder more of a load tonight with the offense which, coupled with his recent production, could mean a big night in terms of volume. 

My best bet: John Tavares Over 3.5 shots on goal (+110)

Predators vs Maple Leafs moneyline analysis

Toronto will look to end the Predators’ four-game win streak, but will do so without Matthews and top-four defenseman Brodie. Matthews has been dealing with an undisclosed injury that Sheldon Keefe said has been bothering the "Rocket" Richard winner for a while. 

Losing your best center and last year’s leading goalscorer is never a good thing, but with the recent play of goaltender Juuse Saros, it’s compounding that issue tonight.

Saros has won four straight games and is averaging 38 saves per game over that small stretch with a .956 save percentage. The Predators are giving up a ton of shots lately (37.4 per game over their last 10), but Saros has answered the call with the league’s best SV% over that time of .942. 

This is likely an unsustainable stretch for Saros, but he's seeing the puck better than any goalie in hockey. His facing a shorthanded Toronto team makes the Predators a slight live dog tonight.

The Preds are 7-3 SU in their last 10 and have been settling games at 5-on-5 with a penalty kill that has allowed just four goals over its last 10 games. This could hurt the Leafs, who have scored in six straight games with the man advantage, but the loss of Matthews at 5-on-4 isn’t going to help. 

Over their win streak, the Predators have beaten Ottawa (+105), Washington (+150), Carolina (+200), and Montreal (-250). The Carolina win was improbable, as they allowed 67 shots. They were outshot 32 to 21 vs. Washington in a 3-2 win. Saros has been the difference.

Toronto is coming off a pair of wins over the weekend vs. some weak opponents in Detroit and Philadelphia, and looks to have its goaltending duo back on track after some poor play following the break. 

Although I do think the wins the Predators have been getting of late aren’t impressive, the performance of Saros and Toronto having to move Nylander to center and juggling the lines because of Matthews’ absence is in the favor of the underdogs.

The moneyline moved from -200 to -180 once the Matthews news was confirmed, which cuts into the value of the Preds’ ML. I’d prefer to take Saros’ Over on his saves market than to bet on a team who isn’t playing great and getting bailed out by its goaltending. 

Both teams also have to play tomorrow, which might favor the Preds, who continue a five-game road trip with a tilt in Montreal tomorrow. The Leafs have to leave home, cross the border, and face the Wings. 

I’m leaning on the Predators, but this side isn't getting any of my money.

Predators vs Maple Leafs Over/Under analysis

This total opened at 6.5 briefly before getting bet down to 6, and moved even more to the Under after the Leafs’ practice this morning. The loss of Matthews, moving Nylander to center, and the play of Saros are tough to ignore, and are the reasons the market is moving to the Under.

The Predators are a team that rolls four lines deep and lacks top-end scoring. Not a single skater is averaging at least a point per game, and facing a Toronto team that ranks fourth in 5-on-5 goals allowed isn’t going to help the visitor’s goal production tonight.

We’ve also seen the Leafs turn into a defensive juggernaut when they have to deal with injuries. They have a way of shutting down shooting opportunities and if they can get average-to-good goaltending, and always have a chance to hold their opponents to two or fewer goals.

The loss of Brodie isn’t great, but Timmins has looked fine, and his insertion into the lineup doesn’t hurt this team defensively.  

Losing Matthews is a different story. The power play was dealing with some recent success, and will miss him with the man advantage. The 5-on-5 offense takes a huge hit as Nylander will pivot Bunting and Engvall on the top line, which could take away from Nylander’s production. 

Saros is not a goalie I want to bet against right now despite his team not playing well in front of him. He’s stealing games, and I wouldn’t put it past him to stifle the shorthanded Leafs tonight. 

I have no play on this total of 6 but would lean on the Under if a 6.5 is available.

Predators vs Maple Leafs betting trend to know

The Maple Leafs are 0-4 in their last four games after scoring five goals or more in their previous game. Find more NHL betting trends for Predators vs Maple Leafs.

Predators vs Maple Leafs game info

Predators vs Maple Leafs key injuries

Pages related to this topic