All eyes will be on the Tampa Bay Lightning and Edmonton Oilers on Thursday when the two shortest favorites in the Hart Trophy odds hit the ice. Edmonton and reigning MVP Connor McDavid will look to make it nine straight wins when they host Tampa Bay and NHL points leader Nikita Kucherov at Rogers Place.
The Toronto Maple Leafs are a huge home favorite in the NHL odds in their game against the Columbus Blue Jackets, and one of my three NHL player props features a long-shot anytime goalscorer from the contest.
The trio of free NHL picks is rounded out with selections from late games between the Calgary Flames and Minnesota Wild, and the noted must-watch showdown between the Lightning and Oilers.
NHL prop picks and best bets for December 14
- Lindholm Under 0.5 points (-115 at Bet99)
- Skinner Over 25.5 saves (-115 at Bet99)
- Gregor anytime goalscorer (+315 at Bet99)
Picks made on December 14 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Today’s NHL prop picks and best bets
Prop bet #1: Lindholm cooled by Wild
The Minnesota Wild have been a new beast through seven games under head coach John Hynes, and in particular, Minny has been stingy at five-on-five and receiving high-end goaltending.
| Record | Corsi For % | Goals against per 60 | Expected goals against per 60 | Team SV% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First 19 games | 5-10-4 | 49.7% | 2.88 | 2.36 | .901 |
| Last seven games | 5-2 | 52.7% | 1.4 | 2.12 | .941 |
Add in the fact that the Wild improved their penalty-kill percentage from a league-worst 66.7% to 87% under Hynes, and the defensive improvements have been all-encompassing.
As a result, I’m pegging this as a tough road test for Elias Lindholm and the offensively challenged Calgary Flames. The 29-year-old vet is off to the worst start since joining the Flames, and his 1.79 points per 60 minutes are his lowest since posting a 1.58 mark with the Hurricanes during the 2015-16 campaign.
Additionally, I don’t love Lindholm’s linemates. Andrew Mangiapane and Yegor Sharangovich are fringe top-six wingers, and the trio has been caved into a 46.7 CF% at 5-on-5 while generating just 1.94 expected goals per 60.
| Bet99 price | My projection | My price | Expected value |
|---|---|---|---|
| -115 | 0.48 | -142 | 10% |
Elias Lindholm prop: Under 0.5 points (-115 at Bet99)
Prop bet #2: Skinner stacks up saves
Edmonton Oilers netminder Stuart Skinner is sizzling along a 7-0 stretch with a .934 SV%, and I expect him to have another solid showing against the Tampa Bay Lightning on Thursday.
Tampa Bay enters with an average of 30.6 shots per game and ranks 15th in both shots (30.3) and attempts (60.97) per 60 minutes. The Lightning have also recorded 29 or more shots in seven of their past nine contests, averaging 31.8 per.
The problem is the Oilers have surrendered the fifth-fewest shots per game (28.3) and hang with the league’s best in limiting opposing offense. Still, I envision this turning into a back-and-forth game considering both teams bring star power to the table and drive possession.
So, even with Edmonton being a sound shot-suppressing team, I’m anticipating Skinner seeing enough rubber to clear this 25.5-shot total.
| Bet99 price | My projection | My price | Expected value |
|---|---|---|---|
| -115 | 28.4 | -149 | 12% |
Stuart Skinner prop: Over 25.5 saves (-115 at Bet99)
Prop bet #3: Opportunity knocks for Noah
Toronto Maple Leafs winger Noah Gregor is set to skate on the No. 1 line alongside Auston Matthews and William Nylander again on Thursday when they take on the Columbus Blue Jackets.
It’s a cushy setup for the first-year Leaf, especially considering he’d been toiling away on the oft-discussed fourth line until Tuesday. Gregor’s per 60 numbers are respectable, and he’s coming off a season-high 17:40 of ice time.
So, opportunity knocks. Gregor’s 0.73 goals and 0.91 individual expected goals at five-on-five rank also seventh and fifth on the team.
The +315 odds at Bet99 translate to an implied probability of 24.1% that Gregor finds the back of the net against the Blue Jackets. Columbus ranks 26th in my defensive ratings, and No. 1 defensive center Boone Jenner (jaw) went on injured reserve Saturday. Additionally, No. 1 goalie Elvis Merzlikins is expected to make his first start since December 5 after being on the IR with an illness.
It's also impossible to quantify head coach Sheldon Keefe’s comments about Gregor’s promotion, but I suspect the sentiments are similar among his teammates. The reward Matthews and Nylander can provide is a Grade A scoring chance.
Keefe on getting Noah Gregor in the top six while Knies is sick: "We’d been pretty much healthy at forward all season so there hasn’t been a lot wiggle room there for him. But when things happen, you want to reward a guy who has worked really hard and who hasn’t complained."
— Lance Hornby 🇺🇦 (@sunhornby) December 14, 2023
Noah Gregor prop: Anytime goalscorer (+315 at Bet99)
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