It’s Friday fun day on the ice, and I’ve got a trio of NHL player props to kick-start the weekend.
There are six games on the docket, and there are five sizable home favorites in the NHL odds.
The New York Rangers, Carolina Hurricanes, Dallas Stars, Arizona Coyotes and Vegas Golden Knights are all carrying big-time chalk, with the matchup between the Boston Bruins and New York Islanders checking out as the outlier according to the numbers.
It’s also an interesting schedule spot for some teams. Carolina and the Ottawa Senators are both playing for the second consecutive night, while the Rangers, Nashville Predators, Bruins, Islanders, Stars, Coyotes, and Buffalo Sabres all lace them up again Saturday.
Here are my free NHL picks for the action.
NHL prop picks and best bets for December 15
- Maccelli Over 2.5 shots (+135 at Bet99)
- Peterka Over 2.5 shots (+115 at Bet99)
- Tarasenko Over 2.5 shots (+145 at Bet99)
Picks made on December 15 at 1:30 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Today’s NHL prop picks and best bets
Prop bet #1: Ciao, Maccelli
The San Jose Sharks are the gift that keeps giving for opposing offenses. They allow the most shots (36.26) and attempts (71.94) per 60 minutes and check out with a league-low 42.7 Corsi For percentage at five-on-five.
Don’t let their recent 6-2-1 surge fool you, either, this is still a team to target in this prop market.
Arizona Coyotes winger Matias Maccelli paces the club in shots (11.17) and attempts (19.54) per 60 across the past eight games, and he’s clicked with linemates Nick Bjugstad and Lawson Crouse for a 53.3 shot share and 52.8 CF% at 5-on-5 across a lengthy 229:57 sample.
Maccelli has also cleared this 2.5-shot total in seven of those eight games and is a go-to shooter on the No. 2 power-play unit.
| Bet99 price | My projection | My price | Expected value |
|---|---|---|---|
| +135 | 2.54 | -102 | 19% |
Matias Maccelli prop: Over 2.5 shots (+135 at Bet99)
Prop bet #2: JJ, wuddaya say
Buffalo Sabres sophomore winger JJ Peterka ranks second in shots (10.4) and third in attempts (18.33) per 60 minutes on the club, and he’s entrenched in a scoring role on the No. 2 line and second power-play unit.
Peterka has piled up 34 shots and 51 attempts across his past nine games while averaging 17:44 minutes per night with 1:49 on the power play. He’s topped this 2.5-shot total in seven of those showings.
Make no mistake, the Vegas Golden Knights are a top-notch defense, and check out at No. 3 in my ratings. Limiting high-danger scoring chances and ranking fifth best in expected goals against (2.78) carries a lot of weight. So, when paired with a second-ranked .919 team save percentage, Vegas fits the bill.
Still, the Golden Knights sit 18th in Corsi For percentage (49.3), allowing the ninth most attempts per 60 minutes at five-on-five. Goals have been hard to come by against Vegas, but opportunities have not.
| Bet99 price | My projection | My price | Expected value |
|---|---|---|---|
| +115 | 2.67 | -106 | 11% |
JJ Peterka prop: Over 2.5 shots (+115 at Bet99)
Prop bet #3: Ramping up
There’s been a recent resurgence in Ottawa Senators winger Vladimir Tarasenko’s shot volume, and it’s sustainable and aligns with him lining up alongside center Tim Stutzle and winger Drake Batherson.
Tarasenko has skyrocketed from 6.3 shots and 12.81 attempts per 60 minutes through the first 17 games of the season to 10.52 and 17.69 marks across the last seven. He’s been primarily skating with Stutzle and Batherson in the past six, and the trio has driven possession with a 55.8 Corsi For percentage and 52.6% shot share.
The Dallas Stars also resemble the previously discussed Vegas Golden Knights. Dallas is a strong 5-on-5 possession team (52.3 CF%), but they still allow a middle-of-the-pack 30.72 shots per 60 while limiting high-danger scoring chances and ranking ninth best in expected goals against has been the calling card for the Stars’ success.
| Bet99 price | My projection | My price | Expected value |
|---|---|---|---|
| +145 | 2.45 | +104 | 20% |
Vladimir Tarasenko prop: Over 2.5 shots (+145 at Bet99)
Not intended for use in MA.
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