There are five games on the ice tonight, and I’ve got a trio of NHL player props to complement the action.
The Detroit Red Wings, Winnipeg Jets, and Dallas Stars are all huge home-ice favorites in the NHL odds while the Minnesota Wild vs. Pittsburgh Penguins and the Florida Panthers vs. Calgary Flames project to be close contests.
Of course, there’s the potential for added animosity in the Panthers-Flames bout after the two teams made a blockbuster deal ahead of the 2022-23 season. The trade saw winger Matthew Tkachuk join the Panthers, and he proved invaluable during Florida’s run to the Stanley Cup Final. Unfortunately, the acquisition of winger Jonathan Huberdeau hasn’t been as impactful for Calgary.
Here are my free NHL picks for Monday’s slate.
NHL prop picks and best bets for December 18
- Vilardi Over 2.5 shots (-105 at Bet99)
- Caufield Under 0.5 points (+135 at Bet99)
- Malkin Under 0.5 points (+135 at Bet99)
Picks made on December 18 at 12:15 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Today’s NHL prop picks and best bets
Prop bet #1: Vilardi climb continues
Winnipeg Jets winger Kyle Connor (knee) landing on injured reserve has opened up a first-line gig for Gabriel Vilardi, and the first-year Jet has taken flight.
Vilardi has 10 shots and 17 attempts while averaging 18:31 of ice time (3:29 with the man advantage) across three games with Connor out. Additionally, he’s clicked with linemates Mark Scheifele and Nikolaj Ehlers for a dominant 68.0 Corsi For percentage and 72.22% shot share at five-on-five this season.
So, with the Montreal Canadiens checking out as a target-worthy matchup in the shot-props market, I was surprised there wasn’t a higher vig attached to Vilardi tonight.
The Habs have surrendered the fourth-most shots (33.61) and attempts (64.45) per 60 minutes, and Montreal also sports a 24th-ranked 47.2 CF% at 5-on-5.
| Bet99 price | My projection | My price | Expected value |
|---|---|---|---|
| -105 | 2.91 | -120 | 6% |
Gabriel Vilardi prop: Over 2.5 shots (-105 at Bet99)
Prop bet #2: Jets hold Caufield in check
The Jets have been a defensive juggernaut during their active 11-4 run. They’ve surrendered the second-fewest goals per 60 minutes (1.56) at five-on-five. No. 1 goalie Connor Hellbuyck also boasts an elite .940 save percentage during the surge while allowing two goals or fewer in each of his past 10 starts.
Winnipeg has only taken 36 minor penalties at 5-on-5 during the heater, too
It all adds up to a tough matchup for struggling Canadiens winger Cole Caufield. He’s only marked the scoresheet in four of his past 10 games and six of 14 road games this season. Because the Habs lack scoring depth, the home team having the last change to send out its preferred matchups to hold Caufield and the Montreal No. 1 line in check is clearly having an impact.
Caufield drops from 2.46 points per 60 and being on the ice for 4.5 expected goals per 60 on home ice to respective 1.84 and 3.39 marks on the highway.
| Bet99 price | My projection | My price | Expected value |
|---|---|---|---|
| <+135> | 0.58 | +104 | 15% |
Cole Caufield prop: Under 0.5 points (+135 at Bet99)
Prop bet #3: Malkin can't tame Wild
Minnesota Wild head coach John Hynes has turned the club around in short order. The Wild boast a seventh-ranked 52.9 Corsi For percentage while allowing the fewest 5-on-5 goals (1.25) and second-fewest expected goals (2.08) per 60 minutes through his nine games behind the bench.
Add Minny moving from a league-worst 68.5 penalty-kill percentage to a fifth-ranked 87.1% mark, and the Wild truly are a new defensive beast.
As a result, I’m eyeing the long odds Pittsburgh Penguins center Evgeni Malkin is sporting to miss the scoresheet.
Malkin is skating with Reilly Smith and Valtteri Puustinen at 5-on-5, and the trio has only combined for 1.62 goals per 60 minutes across four games since Puustinen was promoted from the AHL. Additionally, Malkin is mired in a lengthy slump with two goals and five assists across his past 15 games. He’s failed to register a point in eight of those 15 showings.
| Bet99 price | My projection | My price | Expected value |
|---|---|---|---|
| +135 | 0.61 | +105 | 15% |
Evgeni Malkin prop: Under 0.5 points (+135 at Bet99)
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