Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets: Fantilli Gets Going Against Sabres

Prop bet #1: Dob can't get the job done

The Edmonton Oilers rank among the top shot-suppressing teams in the league with the fifth-fewest attempts (53.69) and sixth-fewest shots (28.3) allowed per 60 minutes. New York Islanders defenseman Noah Dobson has also only topped this 2.5-shot total in four of his past 14 games and 13 of 30 for the campaign. 

His shot volume has taken a sizable hit during the noted 14-game stretch, too.

The dip in Dobson’s shot volume doesn’t perfectly line up with defense partner Adam Pelech sustaining an upper-body injury on November 24, but it’s been a factor over the past 12 games. Additionally, New York has also lost defensemen Ryan Pulock (lower body) and Scott Mayfield (upper body) so the Islanders' blueline depth is being challenged.

All the injuries have caused Dobson’s ice time to skyrocket from 24:28 to start the year to 27:10 over the past 12 games. A huge uptick in minutes can be beneficial in the short term, but it has been a detriment to Noah Dobson's odds of getting pucks on net. 

Finally, I expect Dobson to line up opposite Oilers stars Connor McDavid and/or Leon Draisaitl for the bulk of his even-strength shifts tonight. It’s a nightmare assignment, with McDavid and Drasaitl respectively sporting 59.7 and 53.5 Corsi For percentages at 5-on-5.

Noah Dobson prop: Under 2.5 shots (-105 at Bet99)

Prop bet #2: Fantilli flies against Buffalo

Columbus Blue Jackets center Adam Fantilli is a player to watch in the shots market over the coming weeks. He ranks 24th in attempts per 60 minutes (20.33) among skaters with 450 minutes played, but his 9.8 shots per 60 is the second-lowest mark among the Top 24.

Simply put, as soon as more of his attempts translate to shots, he’s going to be carrying a vig on the 2.5 shot total instead of trading at plus money.

Additionally, with center Boone Jenner (jaw) out indefinitely, Fantilli is positioned to see more minutes. I also value that the rookie is skating alongside playmaking-winger Johnny Gaudreau at 5-on-5 — even if the early results show an underwhelming 40% shot share across 48:19 of shared ice time.

This is a neutral matchup Tuesday, too. The Buffalo Sabres sport a 15th-ranked 49.7 CF% at 5-on-5 for the year and are reeling along an active 6-10-2 stretch. I like Adam Fantilli's odds of going over tonight's shots total.

Adam Fantilli prop: Over 2.5 shots on goal (+135 at Bet99)

Prop bet #3: Sens stomp out Kerfoot

Look for the new-coach bump from the Ottawa Senators on Tuesday, as I’m anticipating the Arizona Coyotes to have trouble generating offense and sustaining pressure.

This is especially true for Arizona’s depth players, and Alex Kerfoot has settled into a defensive role while primarily playing against the opposition's top-two lines.

Kerfoot sports a 44.1 Corsi For percentage at even strength and 60.2% of his zone starts have been in his own end. It’s not a favorable setup, and while he’s penciled in with the No. 1 power-play unit ahead of Tuesday’s game, just six of Kerfoot’s 41 shots this season have been with the man advantage.

Additionally, he’s only topped this 1.5-shot total in 13 of 30 games, so Alex Kerfoot's odds of toppling this total aren't exactly great.

Alex Kerfoot prop: Under 1.5 shots on goal (+110 at Bet99)