Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets: Karlsson Satys Quiet Against Kings

Prop bet #1: Foegele full go vs. Sharks

There’s been a recent uptick in shot volume from Edmonton Oilers winger Warren Foegele, and he lands in an NHL-best matchup for this betting market Thursday. The third-year Oiler has registered 10.51 shots and 19.43 attempts per 60 minutes across his past eight games compared to respective 9.5 and 18.41 marks through his first 23 showings.

The San Jose Sharks allow the most shots (35.51) and attempts (71.22) per 60, and they’re also playing their second game in consecutive nights out of the holiday break. On the flip side, Edmonton should be well-rested, as the Oilers haven’t played since Friday, December 22.

Returning to Warren Foegele odds, while the increase in his shots and attempts is modest and doesn’t fully align with his promotion to the No. 2 line with center Leon Draisaitl and frequent linemate Ryan McLeod, I still peg it as a good fit for Foegele.

McLeod and Foegele have driven five-on-five possession with a 58.0 Corsi For percentage and 55.5% shot share across 455:37 of shared ice time the past two seasons, so flanking a superstar should be a boon to both. Additionally, McLeod is a natural center with a pass-first game, which is another plus for Foegele.

Warren Foegele prop: Over 2.5 shots (+105 at Bet99)

Prop bet #2: Oil too much for Tomas

I’m viewing this as a dreadful schedule spot for the San Jose Sharks. As noted, the Sharks will be playing for the second consecutive night, while the Oilers have been off since December 22.

The biggest story for the Oilers this season has been poor goaltending. Sure, there are question marks throughout the supporting cast, but a 28th-ranked .899 team save percentage at five-on-five is the answer to why Edmonton is straddled with a 15-15-1 record.

After all, the Oil boast a .912 team SV% during their active 10-3 run. Edmonton ranks eighth in expected goals against (2.4) and fourth in Corsi For percentage (55.7%) at 5-on-5. This team drives possession and limits chances with the best in the league, they just need more saves to keep ticking the wins column. 

I don’t expect San Jose to generate quality chances Thursday. The Sharks rank 32nd in my offensive ratings, while the Oilers have climbed to fourth in my defensive ratings with the highlighted improved goaltending.

Finally, the problem for Sharks center Tomas Hertl is he’s set to spend the bulk of his night lining up opposite Edmonton stars Connor McDavid and/or Leon Draisaitl. They respectively sport 60.9% and 53.3% CF% and 61.9% and 57.0% expected goals percentages at 5-on-5. Add Edmonton taking the second-fewest minor penalties at 5-on-5 during the noted 13-game stretch, and Tomas Hertl odds suggest his opportunities are going to be few and far between.

Tomas Hertl prop: Under 0.5 points (+125 at Bet99)

Prop bet #3: Kings de-knight Wild Bill

Vegas Golden Knights center William Karlsson is having a solid season — sneaky solid, even. He’s settled into a secondary role, and despite consistently playing with bottom-six wingers, he’s already matched last year’s 14 goals while adding another 16 assists across 35 games.

It’s just that statistical correction looms large.

Karlsson’s 16.1 shooting percentage is way above the 11.1 mark he posted over the previous five seasons, and almost twice as high as his 8.8 number the past two. Additionally, 10 of his 30 points — four goals — have come with the man advantage. He’s second on the Golden Knights with 6.19 points per 60 minutes on the power play after posting a 2.64 mark the past two years.

Of course, the kicker Thursday is Vegas and Karlsson are welcoming the Los Angeles Kings to T-Mobile Arena.

Los Angeles is No. 1 in my defensive ratings, and the Kings allow the fewest expected goals (2.09) per 60 minutes at five-on-five while also pacing the league in penalty-kill percentage (87%). Add a third-ranked 56.7 Corsi For percentage, and L.A. is a nightmare matchup.

I expect Los Angeles to have goalie Cam Talbot in net against Vegas, and the veteran sports a league-best 13.6 goals saved above average with a high-end .925 save percentage and 2.06 GAA. Finally, the Kings have succeeded defensively because they’re especially deep up the middle, with all four centers driving possession and expected-goals share, making William Karlsson odds a fade at this price. 

William Karlsson prop: Under 0.5 points (+100 at Bet99)