There are four elimination games on the ice Tuesday, with four teams just one win away in the NHL odds from moving on to the conference semifinals.
With that in mind, here are our free NHL picks and NHL player props for April 30.
NHL prop picks and best bets for April 30
- Ehlers Over 2.5 shots (-130 at BET99)
- Lehkonen Under 0.5 points (+120 at BET99)
- Josi Over 2.5 shots (-150 at BET99)
Picks made on 4-30 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Today’s NHL prop picks and best bets
Prop bet #1: Top-line edge with Ehlers
Winnipeg Jets winger Nikolaj Ehlers skated with Mark Scheifele and Gabriel Vilardi during Tuesday’s morning skate. The trio had success across 208:10 of five-on-five ice time during the regular season, driving possession with a 54.3 Corsi For percentage and generating a 54.8% shot share.
Ehlers has also paced the Jets in both shots (11.58) and attempts (26.06) per 60 minutes during Round 1 against the Colorado Avalanche, and he should play similar minutes after logging a series-high 18:40 in Game 4. Ehlers has also recorded three or more shots in three of four Round 1 games.
Nikolaj Ehlers prop: Over 2.5 shots (-130 at BET99)
Prop bet #2: Puck luck dries up for Lehkonen
While Avalanche winger Artturi Lehkonen is having a monster postseason run, his underlying statistics are screaming for negative regression. The 28-year-old Finn recorded 0.75 points per game and 2.35 points per 60 minutes across 125 regular-season outings with Colorado the past three years, which are astronomically above his 1.75 and 5.14 marks through four Round 1 games against Winnipeg.
Additionally, his on-ice numbers are also set for statistical correction. Colorado has a 19.7 shooting percentage, and Winnipeg has a .865 SV% with Lehkonen on the ice during the series. Both marks are also way off the 11.3 Colorado SH% and .903 opponents' team SV% with him on the ice during the noted regular-season stretch dating back to the 2021-22 campaign.
The Jets have allowed 22 goals through four games after finishing the regular season tied for the fewest against (2.41 per game), and No. 1 goalie Connor Hellebuyck sports a .921 SV% and 2.44 GAA across the past two regular seasons. His .870 and 5.22 marks to start this series against Colorado are eyesores, and I expect the Winnipeg netminder to be better in tonight's must-win game.
Artturi Lehkonen prop: Under 0.5 points (+120 at BET99)
Prop bet #3: Josi time
There’s been a steep decline in shot volume from Nashville Predators defenseman Roman Josi through four games against the Vancouver Canucks in Round 1. He’s only hit the net five times on 25 attempts, which checks out at an unsustainably low 20% efficiency. The Preds captain converted 44.7% of his attempts into shots during the regular season.
Josi also recorded 7.99 shots and 17.88 attempts per 60 minutes during the regular season, so his respective playoff marks of 2.91 and 14.53 reinforce the positive regression ahead.
Of course, the decline is tied to the Canucks being one of the best shot-suppressing teams in the league, but the pendulum has swung too far. After all, Josi’s 819 shots rank 12th in the NHL over the past three seasons, and he has recorded three or more shots in nine of his past 13 outings.
Roman Josi prop: Over 2.5 shots (-150 at BET99)
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