Rangers vs Maple Leafs Picks and Predictions: Back The Buds At Home

The Toronto Maple Leafs have won nine of their last 10 and can leapfrog the New York Rangers in the Eastern Conference standings with a win over the Blueshirts Thursday night at Scotiabank Arena. New York won an earlier meeting, 2-1 in overtime, and comes in having won four straight.

Toronto will likely start goalie Jack Campbell who is 6-1 SU in his last seven with a .963 save percentage, a 1.14 GAA and three shutouts. New York will likely turn to Igor Shesterkin who is 3-2 SU this month with a .908 save percentage and a 3.45 GAA.

Here are our free NHL betting picks and predictions Rangers vs. Maple Leafs for Thursday, November 18.

Rangers vs Maple Leafs odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Toronto (11-6 SU) opened at -170 on the ML and has crept up slightly to -175. The total opened at 6 and has since been bet down to 5.5 but still leans to the Over. Toronto closed at -175 on the ML in the last meeting vs. New York (10-6 SU) so don’t expect this price to change much. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Rangers vs Maple Leafs predictions

• Prediction: Leafs ML (-170)
• Prediction: Under 5.5 (+105)
• Best bet: Leafs ML (-170)

Predictions made on 11/18/2021 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Rangers vs Maple Leafs game info

• Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
• Date: Thursday, November 18, 2021
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TSN4, MSG

Rangers vs Maple Leafs betting preview

Injuries

Rangers: None
Maple Leafs: Ilya Mikheyev F (Out), Petr Mrazek G (Out) Ondrej Kase F (Questionable).

Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Rangers vs Maple Leafs head-to-head record (since 2018)

Rangers: 5-2 SU, 22 goals for.
Maple Leafs: 2-5 SU, 21 goals for.

Betting trend to know

The Maple Leafs are 6-1 SU in their last seven games as a home favorite. Find more NHL betting trends for Rangers vs. Maple Leafs.

Rangers vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Moneyline analysis

The Maple Leafs have won four in a row and nine of their last 10. They’ve been comfortably playing in the area since October 30 (eight games at home, one in Philadelphia and Buffalo) and don’t hit the road until Sunday when they’ll face the Islanders. 

Over this dominant stretch of hockey, the Buds have outscored their opponents 35 to 19 and le Guardien de but Jack Campbell has been the team's best player.

The goalie known as Soupy, Campbell, has been incredible this season with a 9-4 SU record to go along with 1.68 GAA and a league-leading .943 save percentage. He is coming off a 3-0 blanking of the Predators on Tuesday and has been otherworldly this month with a 1.14 GAA and a .963 save percentage as well as three shutouts. The Rangers managed just one goal in regulation vs. Campbell and the Leafs in the last meeting and goals won’t be easy for the visitors who sit 20th in goals per game at 2.75 on the season.

Offensively, Toronto has done enough to support their goalie. The Core Four are still rolling but secondary scoring has improved as Ondrej Kase and the third line have chipped in of late. Kase missed practice yesterday after blocking a shot in Tuesday's win but coach Sheldon Keefe said it was just preventative and the forward should be able to go tonight.

The Leafs’ power play has been a strength this month. They have the second-best success rate in November and have scored in eight of their last nine. Toronto went 0 for 3 with the man advantage in the last meeting but that could change tonight as the Rangers have killed just 8 of their last 13 penalties. New York is the 14th-most penalized team in the league.

The Rags are riding a little streak of their own with wins in four straight and 14 of a possible 18 points in their last nine. However, some underlying numbers might not be in the visitor’s favor Thursday night.

Goalie Igor Shesterkin has been fantastic this season but he’s been slightly off his mark of late. He has lost two of his last five starts and owns a 3.45 GAA and a .908 save percentage over that stretch which is well below his October numbers. He’s allowed fewer than three goals just once this month and has given up 17 goals over those five games. No team is giving up more shots per game than the Rangers this month (35.6) and even though the Leafs sit 23rd in goals per game, they still lead the league by a fair margin in expected goals/60 and giving this team extra chances is a death sentence.

The Leafs’ penalty killing has also been elite to begin the season as it's the second-best unit in hockey and has killed 18 of its last 19 penalties. The Rangers have had success of late with the extra attacker but the advantage usually lies with the PK in these meetings. The Rangers went 0 for 3 on the PP in the first meeting.

We thought this game would be priced closer to -180 at opening since Toronto is seemingly always overvalued at home, but this -170 aligns with the last meeting, but Toronto has become a better team since then. Shesterkin’s struggles and Toronto’s confidence, goaltending and special teams are the real advantages here.

This -170 is a decent price on the ML for the Buds as they closed at -200 versus Nashville two nights ago. This price isn’t for everyone and if this is too hefty of a price, the Leafs to win in regulation is pays a more reasonable -120. 

Prediction: Leafs ML (-170)

Over/Under analysis

The Leafs have the best Under record in the Eastern Conference with a 6-11 O/U mark. They’re 23rd in goals per game at 2.71 and sixth in goals against at 2.47. No team is allowing fewer goals this month than Toronto at 1.63 goals allowed per game. They are 4-6 O/U in their last 10 but two of those Over needed empty-net goals to cash.

New York is 3-6-1 O/U on the road this year and despite some recent struggles, Shesterkin has been one of the better goalies in the league. The Rangers struggle to create offense at even strength as they sit in the bottom-five of the league in expected goals at 5-on-5 and that was consistent in the last meeting where New York had just one unassisted goal (5-on-5) and finished with 1.66 xgoals at even strength and 2.18 xgoals in all situations.

Campbell has been too consistent to try and predict an off night while the Rangers’ strength — its power play — doesn’t match up well with the Leafs’ aggressive penalty kill. We don’t see this one getting out of hand and with the Rangers’ team total of 2.5 currently shaded to the Under, the books aren’t high on the Rangers scoring more than two goals. Campbell has three shutouts this month alone and it’s only the 18th. This total mistakenly opened at 6 and has since been bet down to 5.5.

Prediction: Under 5.5 (+105)

Best bet

We really were expecting this number to be a little better for the Rangers. The first meeting closed at -175 for the Leafs and they've become a much better team since then. Nine wins in 10 games is a hell of a stretch and factor in wins versus the Bruins, Golden Knights, Lightning, Flames, Flyers and Predators, these haven’t been easy games. Campbell is playing better than any other goalie in the league right now, the special teams have been unreal and the 5-on-5 play has been consistent and defensive-minded. 

Toronto dominated the last meeting despite only picking up a single point with the loss. They finished with 3.43 xgoals compared to New York’s 2.18. The Leafs outshot them 41 to 23 and 13 to 1 in the second period. They also out-chanced them 34 to 22. Shesterkin stole them that win but he comes into tonight’s match not in his best form. It’s the Leafs on the ML tonight for us to win one unit.

Pick: Leafs ML (-170)

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