A pair of the hottest teams in the NHL meet at Canadian Tire Centre with the Washington Capitals visiting the Ottawa Senators on Thursday, January 16.
Ottawa and Washington have both received excellent goaltending and held their opponents in check of late, and my top Capitals vs. Senators predictions and NHL picks are calling for a low-scoring contest tonight.
Senators vs Capitals prediction
My Senators pick
Under 5.5 (-105 at Pinnacle)
My Senators analysis
In addition to both teams piling up wins, the Ottawa Senators and Washington Capitals are two of the best defensive teams in the league over the past month-plus.
The Sens are tied with the Caps for the second-fewest goals against per game (2.11) during their active 12-6-1 stretch, and the two clubs also respectively rank 12th and 10th in penalty-kill percentage with 81.8% and 84.6% marks.
Additionally, the 5-on-5 play checks out.
Washington has surrendered the fourth-fewest goals per 60 at 5-on-5 (1.68) and Ottawa has allowed the sixth-fewest (1.9), and both clubs are also receiving excellent goaltending with respective third-ranked .933 and seventh-ranked .926 team save percentage across their past 19 games.
Sens backup Leevi Merilainen is also coming off a shutout to improve to a .925 SV% and 1.98 GAA with 3.85 goals saved above average through seven appearances, while Caps No. 1 Logan Thompson has shown off all season with a .921 SV%, 2.23 GAA and 6.49 GSAA across 24 games.
Finally, Washington is also eyeing statistical correction to its league-high 11.3% team shooting percentage at 5-on-5, and a road date in Ottawa is just the spot to kick-start the negative regression.
Senators vs Capitals odds analysis
The highway has been kind to Washington, with the Caps sporting a 14-6-1 road record, so it isn’t surprising to see them open as an incredibly short favorite for this tilt against the Sens. Ottawa has also been better at home with an 11-7-1 record, and I think we could see the betting favorite shift to the home side before puck drop.
Ottawa hasn't gone Over the number in 10 games, and the Sens head into this bout with a 13-24-6 Over/Under record for the season. Washington has also gone Under in four straight and is at 19-22-3 for the year.
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Senators vs Capitals odds
Senators vs Capitals live odds
Senators vs Capitals opening odds
- Puck line: Ottawa +1.5 | Washington -1.5
- Moneyline: Ottawa -105 | Washington -107
- Over/Under: Over 5.5 | Under 5.5
Odds courtesy of Pinnacle
Senators vs Capitals trend
The Senators have hit the Under in 48 of their last 87 games (+12.80 Units / 13% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Senators vs. Capitals.
How to watch Senators vs Capitals
| Location: | Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, ON |
| Date: | Thursday, 1-16-2025 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN5 |
Senators vs Capitals latest injuries
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