We’ve got 10 games on the NHL slate tonight, including a rematch from Saturday with the Toronto Maple Leafs and the San Jose Sharks finishing up a home-and-home series.
Fading the Sharks worked over the weekend, but can the Leafs double down three days later? I say they can. As do the NHL odds, which indicate that the Leafs are strong favorites to win this game convincingly.
Find out why in my free NHL picks for this January 9 matchup.
Sharks vs Maple Leafs odds
Sharks vs Maple Leafs predictions
The Toronto Maple Leafs and San Jose Sharks are set to play for the second time in as many games for both teams in the rare cross-conference home-and-home series.
Toronto got the best of San Jose Saturday night with a dominant 4-1 win at the ‘Shark Tank’, where the Leafs finished with 63% of the expected goals, according to Natural Stat Trick. The game now shifts up north to Scotiabank Arena where San Jose has just one win since 2017.
The Leafs have won three games in a row in rather dominant fashion, winning 61% of their minutes. This leads me to believe that Toronto should blow the Sharks out of the water once again.
The Buds are playing far better defensively of late, which has resulted in excellent goaltending. Toronto has given up a total of four goals over its last four games, with Top-5 defensive metrics to go along with that data.
Considering the Sharks rank dead last in scoring with a lowly 2.00 goals per game while generating the least amount of scoring chances per game, I don’t like their chances to change the narrative tonight.
As for Toronto’s offense, I can easily see a path for them to net 4+ goals, which should give them a high percentage chance to cover the spread. The Sharks are giving up the league-worst 4.03 goals against per game while also ranking 31st in expected goals against.
So, Toronto’s high-powered offense shouldn’t have issues generating chances that should turn into offense that will see the Leafs find the back of the net multiple times and blow past their nightly average of 3.74 goals over the last calendar month.
Additionally, the Sharks are 15-25 against the spread this season, with a 4-15 record when on the road. Sure, the Leafs' puck line record isn’t any better, but that trend is starting to turn the other way for Toronto as they’ve covered the spread in three of their last four games, including Saturday night against these same Sharks.
Assuming it’s a “wash, rinse, repeat" type of evening for the Leafs, they should be able to continue bucking that trend.
My best bet: Leafs -1.5 (-150 at SIA)
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Sharks vs Maple Leafs same-game parlay
Leafs -1.5
Sharks team total Under 2.5
William Nylander anytime goalscorer
For leg one of my same-game parlay, we'll use my best bet and take the Leafs to win by 2+ goals with a play on the spread (Leafs -1.5).
Next up, I like for William Nylander to reward himself after obtaining a new big fat contract with an anytime goal. He scored against the Sharks twice Saturday night, registering five shots on goal. He’s got 21 on the year and has lit the lamp five times in his last five games. I say he pushes that to six in six tonight.
For my final leg, let’s roll with the Under on the Sharks team total of 2.5 goals. San Jose averages 2.0 goals per game and has gone Under 2.5 goals in eight of their last 10 games.
Plus, Martin Jones is getting the start again for Toronto which is fresh off the NHL’s second star honors after a 3-0 week with a .976 SV%. He’s in the zone and stopping everything. That's not ideal for the Sharks, who struggle to generate offense.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Sharks vs Maple Leafs moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Maple Leafs come into tonight as heavy -450 road favorites, with the Sharks entering as massive underdogs at +350 odds.
The Sharks have lost 11 in a row and have been a good team to fade all year. However, that -450 price is not worth it for the Leafs, who have struggled with playing down to their competition at times this season.
The total for tonight’s game is sitting at 6.5, with the favored side being the Under at -115. The Sharks have been held to two or fewer in eight of their last 10. The Leafs are playing excellently defensively and are getting solid goaltending from Jones. The Under is also 4-1 in both the Leafs' and Sharks' last five games.
Sharks vs Maple Leafs betting trend to know
The Maple Leafs have cashed the third-period moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games. Find more NHL betting trends for Sharks vs. Maple Leafs.
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Sharks vs Maple Leafs game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Tuesday, January 9, 2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN, NBCS-California |
Sharks vs Maple Leafs latest injuries
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