The Florida Panthers were in cruise control with a 3-0 series lead before the Edmonton Oilers rallied with three straight wins and an impressive 18-5 goal differential.
Can the Panthers find a way to buck the momentum and keep themselves away from the wrong side of history, or will the Oilers pull off the second 0-3 comeback in Stanley Cup Finals history?
My Oilers vs. Panthers prediction pours a bit of cold water on Edmonton's comeback story in the Stanley Cup odds.
See why I like Florida with my NHL picks for tonight's finale below.
Oilers vs Panthers prediction
My best bet
Panthers moneyline (-110 at Sports Interaction)
My analysis
The Florida Panthers have been the better possession team and generated more expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five during their three-game losing streak.
| 5-on-5 | Panthers | Oilers |
|---|---|---|
| CF% | 61.5% | 38.5% |
| xGF% | 64.1% | 35.9% |
Additionally, these numbers also check out when adjusted for score and venue, which further reaffirms the Edmonton Oilers have had the better puck luck over the past three games.
| Adjusted 5-on-5 | Panthers | Oilers |
|---|---|---|
| CF% | 57% | 43% |
| xGF% | 60.9% | 39.1% |
I also particularly value the 5-on-5 PDO gap, with Edmonton having a far better shooting percentage and save percentage than Florida.
| 5-on-5 | Panthers | Oilers |
|---|---|---|
| PDO | 87.8 | 112.2 |
| Team shooting percentage | 8.2% | 20.4% |
| Team save percentage | .796 | .918 |
And, again, the statistical mismatch is similar when adjusted for score and venue.
| Adjusted 5-on-5 | Panthers | Oilers |
|---|---|---|
| PDO | 89.6 | 110.4 |
| Team shooting percentage | 8.6% | 19% |
| Team save percentage | .810 | .914 |
Obviously, special teams have had a huge impact on the results during Edmonton’s three-game winning streak. The Oilers didn’t score a power-play goal in Game 6, though, and there was an uptick in 5-on-5 minutes (47:38) with just five total PP opportunities. For comparison, there were 18 PP opportunities and an average of 41:50 of time at 5-on-5 across Games 4 and 5.
I anticipate penalties to be few and far between in Game 7, and the Panthers to continue driving the play while generating more quality scoring chances than the Oilers at 5-on-5. Edmonton maintaining a 20.4 team SH% will be hard-pressed because they posted an 8.8% mark through the regular season and 10% through the first three rounds of the playoffs.
Panthers starter Sergei Bobrovsky has also been better on home ice throughout the postseason with a .913 SV% and 2.08 GAA compared to .893 and 2.73 marks on the road. Additionally, his .793 SV% and 5.06 GAA during the three-game skid are screaming for statistical correction.
With both teams sporting the same odds, I’m happy to back the club playing better at 5-on-5, especially with the Oilers set for big-time negative regression to their sky-high PDO.
Oilers vs Panthers same-game parlay (SGP)
Panthers moneyline
Under 1.5 first-period goals
Florida has played to low-scoring first periods at Amerant Bank Arena during the postseason. The Cats have only scored seven times and allowed just eight goals in the opening frame across their 12 home playoff games. Additionally, the Oil have been solid on the highway with 12 first-period goals across 12 road postseason games, but they’ve also only allowed four.
This game will showcase both teams looking to minimize mistakes through heightened attention to defensive detail, which will limit the offensive opportunities both allow and generate. Finally, I also expect a tidier game from Bobrovsky between the pipes.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Oilers vs Panthers odds
Oilers vs Panthers live odds
Oilers vs Panthers opening odds
- Puck line: Edmonton +1.5 (-245) | Florida -1.5 (+200)
- Moneyline: Edmonton -105 | Florida -115
- Over/Under: Over 5.5 (-105) | Under 5.5 (-115)
Oilers vs Panthers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- There has been a slight movement to the Edmonton side of this moneyline through Sports Interaction, and I mean slight. The Oilers moved from an opening -105 to -110.
- On the flip side, Pinnacle opened with the Oilers priced at +100 Friday evening, and the Oilers are +101 as of Monday morning.
- The total has been much more interesting because it moved from 5.5 to 5.0 at multiple books, and Sports Interaction still has the number at 5.0 (-160/+120) as of Monday morning.
- Pinnacle tested a 5.0 total early Monday, but the shop has since returned to the 5.5 number with the Under carrying considerable chalk (+125/-141).
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Oilers vs Panthers trend
Florida has generated more expected goals than Edmonton at 5-on-5 in each of the past three games. Find more NHL betting trends for Oilers vs. Panthers.
Oilers vs Panthers game info
| Location: | Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise, FL |
| Date: | Monday, 6-24-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBC |
Oilers vs Panthers latest injuries
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