The Dallas Stars are playing a near-perfect underdog role in their Round 1 series with the Calgary Flames. Things are tied up at two games apiece ahead of Wednesday’s night pivotal Game 5 in Calgary, where the Flames are heavy -220 favorites with a total of 5.5.
Can bettors expect more scoring after seeing just 14 goals through four games? Can the Stars continue to be competitive and play better than their odds indicate? Find out in free NHL picks and predictions for Stars vs. Flames on Wednesday, May 11.
Stars vs Flames odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Flames opened as -230 favorites and have since moved to -220 with a total of 5.5 leaning to the Under. Calgary closed Game 1 at -215 and Game 2 at -235. Dallas has won as +210 and +145 underdogs.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Stars vs Flames predictions
Predictions made on 5/11/2022 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Stars vs Flames game info
• Location: Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary, AB
• Date: Wednesday, May 11, 2022
• Puck drop: 9:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN, CBC
Stars vs Flames series odds (tied at 2-2)
Stars: +205
Flames: -205
Stars vs Flames betting preview
Key injuries
Stars: Braden Holtby G (Out).
Flames: Sean Monahan F (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Stars vs Flames head-to-head record in the series
Stars: 2-2 SU, seven goals for.
Flames: 2-2 SU, seven goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 5-1 in the Flames’ last six games as a favorite. Find more NHL betting trends for Stars vs. Flames.
Stars vs Flames picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
Nobody was giving the Stars much of a chance in this series last week, but after four games, the heavily-favored Calgary Flames can’t be feeling great about their situation.
The Flames have been their usual stingy selves as Jacob Markstrom boasts a 1.27 GAA and a .957 SV% with a shutout, but the offense has been a no-show, as Darryl Sutter’s group has netted just seven goals over four games.
Calgary is 2-for-17 with the man advantage and has scored just three goals at 5-on-5. It's coming off its most-dominant game of the series but still struggled to finish as it had four goals (one empty-netter and a penalty shot) but finished with 6.33 xgoals which, if you don’t follow the metric, is a huge number.
The Flames are being led offensively by the Tkachuk-Lindholm-Gaudreau line but are getting very little help from their bottom-nine forwards. Tyler Toffoli hasn’t scored in 14 games, second-line center Mikael Backlund hasn’t scored with a goalie in the net since late March, while eight of the 12 forwards have zero or just a single point. The Flames can keep things tight and play Sutter’s systems, but are we willing to dive on the -220 ML in what should be another close game?
The Stars split in Calgary to begin the series but outscored the Flames two to one. They’ve been playing a perfect underdog role in that they're keeping games close, casting doubt in the heads of the Flames and getting exceptional goaltending that has Calgary shaking its head.
Jake Oettinger owns a better save percentage than Markstrom at .960% and stopped 54 of 55 shots in Calgary in Games 1 and 2, including a 29-save shutout. He’s allowed just six goals through four games and leads all playoff goalies in goals saved above expected per 60. He is coming off his worst start, where he allowed three goals, but the former first-round pick still made 50 saves.
OETTINGER ARE YOU SERIOUS?? ???? pic.twitter.com/GRKMqGuhRh
— NHLonTNT (@NHL_On_TNT) May 10, 2022
Dallas’ offense has also been highly unproductive and has lost the Corsi, Fenwick and xgoal percentages in nearly every game, but with two exceptional goalies and teams struggling to score, we’re only looking at this one way, and that’s with the big ML on the visitor side at +185.
The Stars have already shown us they have a great game plan on the road and Oettinger was great away from home all season with a .923 SV%. In a projected low-scoring game, give us the dogs at a price that is hard to ignore.
Prediction: Stars moneyline (+185 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
The Under is 3-1 through four games in the series, with that one Over coming on an empty-net goal that came in the game’s final second. The total hit 5 for Game 4 before closing at 5.5, and it’s heading in that direction again tonight.
The series has seen just 14 total goals, and even those goals have come in some non-conventional ways. Calgary has scored seven, which includes an empty-netter, a penalty shot and two power-play goals, while Oettinger owns a 1.47 GAA at even strength.
The Stars haven’t been much of a threat offensively either — just seven goals with two power-play strikes and a pair of empty-netters. Thanks to their three goals at even strength through four games, Markstrom has a sparkling 0.74 GAA at 5-on-5 in the series. Dallas also finished with one of the best Under records on the road this season with a 17-24 O/U mark.
The penalties in the playoffs have been excessive, to say the least, but Dallas and Calgary are sitting in the middle of the pack in PP time one ice and are a combined 4-for-34 with the man advantage. Calgary had one of the best penalty kills during the regular season while the Stars finished inside the Top 10 over the last month of the season.
Very few remaining teams are as reliant on their top lines as the Flames and the Stars. In the playoffs with games becoming faster and open ice becoming less, it’s easier to slow down these top units, and without much secondary scoring from either side, we aren’t concerned about this one getting out of hand.
Two-way scoring has also not been a thing in this series. Over the four games, only one time have we seen both teams score at least two goals as once a team gets a lead (outside of Game 4), it seems the focus is protecting the lead more so than adding to it.
With two goalies who have been elite and have carried the series, we’re not expecting either team to have their way offensively tonight. With a total of 5.5, the empty net is always looming but if the first two games in Calgary are any indication of what Game 5 is going to be, the scoresheet should not be a crowded place Wednesday night.
Prediction: Under 5.5 (-120 at Coolbet)
Best bet
This is a tough series to bet on player props, as the first-line players are heavily juiced and there haven’t been many goals. Even the shot market is a tough place to find value as no player has more than 13 shots in the series.
Getting a +185 ML price with a goalie who has a .960 SV% and has allowed just six goals through four games is something we can get behind, though. The Stars have shown they can bounce back from losses in this series as they are 2-0 SU following a loss and have played well on the road.
Oettinger and the Stars held the Flames to just 55 shots and one goal in the two games in Calgary in this series. Rick Bowness is a very underrated part of this handicap, as the veteran coach got this team to the Stanley Cup Finals just three seasons ago. Sutter is the man, but Bowness knows how to game plan with the best of them and is 23-19 SU in the postseason with many of those games being played as a heavy underdog.
If the Stars can keep this game close, this +185 ML price could be a steal.
Pick: Stars moneyline (+185 at bet365)
