The division-leading Dallas Stars head to UBS Arena tonight to take on the New York Islanders with NHL odds listing the visitors as slight -115 favorites with a low total of 5.5.
The Stars could be without star winger Roope Hintz but with the play of goaltender Jake Oettinger and facing a low-scoring New York offense, two or three goals could be enough for the Stars to take two points.
Check out my NHL picks and predictions for Stars vs. Islanders below to see where the betting value lies.
Stars vs Islanders best odds
Stars vs Islanders picks and predictions
Just because the New York Islanders have one of the best home GAAs at 2.28, doesn’t mean they aren’t allowing their fair share of shots. Their 31 shots per game ranks in the middle of the league at home and the Dallas Stars come in having hit the 30-shot mark in nine of its last 10 games and has 99 total shots in its last three.
Thanks to the low total, we can find a little value in the shots on goal market for the visitors. Roope Hintz comes in questionable for tonight’s game so his prop is off the table for me, leaving Jason Robertson and Miro Heiskanen as my top choices.
If bettors can get Robertson at -135 or better (currently -114 at Unibet, Northstar Bets, and BetRivers), that would be my best choice, but with most of the market at -145 or shorter, we’re losing some value there.
Robertson ranks fourth in hockey in shot attempts/60 and seventh in shots on net/60 — ahead of Alex Ovechkin and Auston Matthews. Robertson averages 4.1 shots per game with a median of four. He should be priced around -145 in this matchup and might even shoot more if Hintz sits.
If Hintz is out, Tyler Seguin's point market (+120 for the Over 0.5 points) might be worth a look as he jumped up on the top line when Hintz exited in the last game.
Heiskanen might offer the best value here at Over 2.5 +107 at Betano. He’s 8-2 to the Over in his last 10 and averages 2.7 shots per game with a median of three. His shots on goal/60 is on par with Erik Karlsson’s.
With a projected low-scoring game, shots are likely the best way to approach this game, and Robertson at -135 or better is my best bet with Heiskanen Over 2.5 shots at plus money being a solid Plan B if Robertson’s market shortens up.
My best bet: Jason Robertson Over 3.5 shots on goal (-114)
Looking to do some NHL betting? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can get a no-sweat first bet of up to $1,000! Sign Up Now
B) New users at Caesars can get a risk-free bet of up to $1,250! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Stars vs Islanders moneyline analysis
The Dallas Stars sit one point on top of the Central Division and boast the West’s best goal differential at +34. Only the Bruins have a better goal differential at the halfway point of the NHL season.
The impressive goal differential is thanks to the league’s No. 4 scoring offense (3.51 goals per game), fourth-best power-play, fourth-best penalty kill, and the No. 5 save percentage at 5-on-5. Jake Oettinger has a lot to do with the latter.
Oettinger started the season as one of the hottest goalies in hockey, hit a rough patch, but has found his way back and has allowed more than two goals just twice over his last 12 games dating back to early December. He is now the No. 5 betting favorite for the Vezina (+1,200) and has a 2.15 GAA since December 1 (15 games).
This is a well-rounded Dallas team that has no flaws and even with first-line winger Roope Hintz questionable heading into the game, the injuries to New York's Kyle Palmeri and defenseman Adam Pelech make up for that loss in terms of pricing this game.
The Islanders are not a sexy team. They sit in the bottom third in goal production and have been playing under .500 hockey since December 1 — 7-10 SU. The power play sits dead last over that stretch going 5-for-48 with the man advantage.
New York is opening a nine-day, five-game home stretch but this will also be the team’s first game back from a West Coast four-game run and there is always a little rust coming back from out West. This is just not a good matchup for the home side’s offense which has scored two or fewer goals in four of its last 10 games and faces a hot goaltender.
If New York is going to win, it will likely come from Ilya Sorokin (unconfirmed) who is currently the No. 2 betting favorite for the Vezina (+325). Despite his Vezina pricing, Oettinger comes in with the better form. Sorokin is 4-8 SU since December 1 with a 2.58 GAA and a .911 SV%.
Those numbers indicate that he isn’t getting a ton of goal support but the edge in net tonight belongs to the visitors and with the low total projecting a low-scoring game, Oettinger and the Dallas special teams are enough for me to take the visitors comfortably.
Stars vs Islanders Over/Under analysis
Betting on Islander totals means navigating the awkward total of 5.5. New York is 19-20-2 O/U on the season but 10-4 O/U on closing totals of 5.5.
These shorter totals are not for everyone but when we have two of the best goalies in hockey and a New York power play that can’t score, it’s no wonder the total isn’t seeing much movement and sitting at -110 aside.
The Islanders are a different team at home in terms of high-total games. Their 2.28 GAA at home is the second-best mark in hockey behind the Bruins and they’re seeing an average of exactly 5.5 total goals per game on home ice.
Hintz possibly missing the game favors the Under as the winger ranks second on the team in goals (19) and points (44). He exited Dallas’ last game vs. the Panthers early in the first and is a game-time decision today. Tyler Seguin jumped up to the top line in Hintz’s absence.
The Stars come into tonight’s match 5-1-1 to the Under across their last seven games but Dallas is still getting a ton of shots on net (33 per game last 10) and has hit the 30-shot mark in nine of its last 10. This is also a game between two teams from different conferences which adds to the variance.
I’m not a fan of betting on the Under at 5.5 as living or dying by empty-net goals is a tough battle, but the lean is on the Under with two elite goalies and two Top-10 penalty kills.
Stars vs Islanders betting trend to know
The Stars are 5-1 SU in their last six games vs. the Eastern Conference. Find more NHL betting trends for Stars vs Islanders.
Stars vs Islanders game info
| Location: | UBS Arena, Elmont, NY |
| Date: | Tuesday, January 10, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Southwest, MSG |
