Stars vs Wild Game 3 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Gustavsson Stands Tall in St. Paul

The Stanley Cup Playoffs series between the Minnesota Wild and Dallas Stars shifts to Minny tonight for Game 3 with the series tied at 1-1.

After surprisingly starting Marc-Andre Fleury — to disastrous results — in Game 2, the Wild will be going back to their better netminder tonight, which means we should see another low-scoring affair. NHL odds currently have the total at 5.5, strongly shaded to the Under.

I'm sticking with the low-scoring theme for my best free NHL pick for Wild vs Stars tonight, keying in on a goalie to steal the show.

Stars vs Wild Game 3 odds

Stars vs Wild series odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of April 21, 2023.

Stars vs Wild Game 3 predictions

After Minnesota Wild goaltender Filip Gustavsson — who posted an incredible 2.10 GAA, .931 SV%, and 31.3 goals saved above average in just 39 games this year — made 51 saves in a 3-2 double-overtime win in Game 1, head coach Dean Evason made the completely illogical decision to start struggling veteran Marc-Andre Fleury in Game 2.

And, as expected with starting a 38-year-old with a 2.85 GAA this year, the results were catastrophic: A 7-3 loss and a missed opportunity to steal two games on road ice.

Still, the Wild earned a split heading back to the Xcel Energy Center, and will be going back to Gustavsson tonight. I think there are a number of reasons to like him to keep the Dallas Stars offense in check again.

The Stars only got two goals past Gustavsson in Game 1 and, per Moneypuck, only had 3.76 expected goals in 4.5 periods. Through 60 minutes, their xGF was just 1.59. For Game 2, Dallas' xGF was actually lower than the entirety of the opening matchup, with just 3.13 expected goals as Fleury was truly that bad.

The Stars offense has been solid through two games in this series, but it hasn't been overwhelming by any means. This was with the luxury of having the last line change, where they could set more preferred matchups and often got their two scoring lines against some combination of Minnesota's bottom six.

With the series shifting to St. Paul, the Wild will have the matchup advantage now, making it just a little more difficult for the Stars, umm, stars, to produce at 5v5.

Also going in favor of Gustavsson is the team will likely have its two best centers back. Ryan Hartman is expected to return after missing Game 2, and Joel Eriksson Ek — the team's top pivot and one of the league's premier defensive forwards — should also make his 2023 postseason debut. Those returns tonight should further boost the Wild's ability to control the play at even strength, while Eriksson Ek will tighten up a Wild penalty kill that has uncharacteristically killed just 6-of-11 penalties through two games.

Gustavsson has stopped more than 94% of shots faced over his last eight games — he's locked in right now. Add in the home-ice advantage and a fully healthy lineup in front of him, and I'm betting on another big game from Gus.

My best bet: Filip Gustavsson Under 2.5 goals against (-132)

Stars vs Wild Game 3 moneyline analysis

The Wild closed as +155 underdogs for Game 1 (with Gustavsson), then closed around +170 with Fleury for Game 2. They are still dogs ahead of Game 3, although it's a very slim -105 — with some operators currently having this game as a pick'em.

As mentioned above, the Wild do get a boost from playing in Minnesota, where they had the seventh-highest points percentage at home this season. They will also have a much better roster with Eriksson Ek likely back with Matthew Boldy and Marcus Johansson, while Hartman should return to his usual spot with Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello.

Despite all the plusses for the Wild, Dallas still is the higher seed in this series and went 2-0-2 (with both losses coming in the shootout) against the Wild in the regular season. But they will again be without a key contributor in Joe Pavelski, who is still in the league's concussion protocol and did not travel with the team.

Stars vs Wild Game 3 Over/Under analysis

Tonight's game is one of two on the slate that opened with a total of 5.5, and while the other game (Hurricanes vs. Islanders) has already dropped to a flat 5, this is still holding the half-goal hook, albeit at anywhere from -120 to -130 on the Under.

I've already mentioned that Gustavsson has been locked in as of late, but he's also been strong against the Stars this year, posting a .950 SV% and giving up just six total goals in three games vs. Dallas this season (including Game 1).

Stars goalie Jake Oettinger has struggled (by his standards) through the first two games of the series, giving up three goals in each — something he did just once in the eight games prior. But the Vezina Trophy contender has been one of the best goaltenders in the NHL this season, and actually had also played well against the Wild this year. The Minnesota native allowed just one goal in each of his last three regular-season matchups with the Wild. 

Stars vs Wild betting trend to know

The Under is 4-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings. Find more NHL betting trends for Stars vs. Wild.

Stars vs Wild Game 3 game info

Stars vs Wild Game 3 injuries

Pages related to this topic