The Minnesota Wild will be looking to rebound Thursday versus the Boston Bruins after a Winter Classic letdown that pushed the Western Conference team’s losing streak to five games.
Do the Wild have the goaltending to pull them out of this mid-season slide? Are the Bruins anything more than a .500 team despite being overvalued by the books? Find out in our free picks and predictions for the Wild vs. Bruins.
Wild vs Bruins odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Boston opened at -160 on the ML Wednesday afternoon with a total that's sitting between 5.5 and 6.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Wild vs Bruins predictions
Predictions made on 1/5/2022 at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Wild vs Bruins game info
• Location: TD Garden, Boston, MA
• Date: Thursday, January 6, 2022
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Wild vs Bruins betting preview
Injuries
Wild: Jared Spurgeon D (Out), Nick Bjugstad F (Out), Cam Talbot G (Out), Jordan Greenway F (Out), Joel Eriksson Ek F (Out).
Bruins: Jake DeBrusk F (Out), Tomas Nosek F (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Wild vs Bruins head-to-head record (since 2016)
Wild: 2-7 SU, 17 goals for.
Bruins: 7-2 SU, 29 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 6-1 in the Wild’s last seven vs. a team with a winning record. Find more NHL betting trends for Wild vs. Bruins.
Wild vs Bruins picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Moneyline analysis
The Minnesota Wild had the most points in hockey as recently as December 9 but a five-game losing skid has seen them drop to sixth in the Western Conference standings. They’ll enter Thursday’s inter-conference match without their No. 1 goalie in Cam Talbot and captain Jared Spurgeon. The Wild were not good at keeping the puck out of their own net with those two pieces in their lineup (3.10 goals allowed per game) and the losses of these two are substantial despite Boston not being as big of an offensive threat as previous opponents. Some help is coming for the visitors, though.
The Wild will get some big help on the blueline with Jonas Brodin likely drawing back on Thursday. Brodin was missed at Target Field as the defenseman leads the team in time on ice and will help fill the void of captain Jared Spurgeon who has been out since December 16.
Minnesota’s Marco Rossi will make his NHL debut tonight as well. The 2020 first-round pick has 23 points in 21 games in the AHL this season and practiced on a line with Marcus Foligno and Kevin Fiala on Wednesday. He could get some decent minutes Thursday. 2019 first-rounder Matthew Boldy is also set to make his NHL debut. He isn’t as highly touted a prospect as Rossi but has collected 28 points across 24 AHL games over the last two seasons. Adding new blood to the lineup should help this team get over the outdoor loss.
It will be a tough spot for the rookies as Boston is one of the stingiest teams at 5-on-5. On the year, Bruce Cassidy’s team ranks fifth in 5-on-5 goals allowed (50 in 29 games) and first in xgoals allowed. This is a Boston team that may not run up the score but is tough to beat at even strength with the league’s No. 2 xgoals differential. But there are some indicators that say the Bruins aren’t as good as the books make them out to be.
For starters, since the restart, Cassidy’s club has picked up wins over the Sabres, Red Wings and Devils. Hardly impressive. A COVID-ravaged Devils team erased three separate Boston leads on Tuesday while the Bruins needed two third-period goals versus Buffalo to get it to overtime for the victory on New Year's Day. This is still a Boston team that is one game over .500 in its last 15 games but is still getting plenty of love from the oddsmakers.
Kappa Kahkonen will likely get the start for the Wild. He owns a lower GAA than Cam Talbot and has a better goals saved above expected/60 so the loss of Talbot isn’t a factor. He’ll face off against Boston goalie Jeremy Swayman who has just one win over his last four starts and that was versus the Red Wings. He’s been the better Boston goalie this season but has laid a few eggs with four of his 15 starts seeing at least four goals.
If Minnesota can score first, and avoid the slow pace of Boston, this +140 Minnesota price tag could look like a steal. This is the best team Boston has played since before Christmas and the Wild will be looking to bounce back in a big way after a dud in the Winter Classic. If this game was played in December, Minnesota would be closer to a +115 to +110 price on the ML.
Prediction: Wild ML (+140)
Over/Under analysis
Only Columbus has hit more Overs this season than the Wild at 20-11 O/U on the season. They showed in the Winter Classic that they can give up goals in bunches as well as get those back in hurry. Over their last 16 games, the Over has hit 12 times as the Wild are averaging 4.06 goals per game while simultaneously giving up a cool 3.06. Only Colorado has seen more total goals per game over that stretch than Minnesota.
Even the Boston offense has come to life in the new year as the Bs have scored 14 goals in their last three games. The Over hit in all three of those games and they did it without needing the Perfection line to do the majority of the scoring. Facing a Minnesota team that gives up over 3.00 goals per game and has a penalty kill that ranks outside of the Top 15 should be enough to keep the home team’s offense rolling.
Both teams’ power plays could also get a jump start in Thursday’s matchup. Boston’s PP has slowed down midway through the season but will get plenty of chances versus a Minnesota penalty kill that has allowed four goals in its last three games. The Wild also takes penalties at the fourth-highest rate in the league.
Additionally, the visitors could use Thursday to give their PP a kick in the pants as the Bruins have surrendered seven PP goals in their last eight games and are killing penalties under 80 percent since December.
The Wild can give up and score goals with the best of them while Boston's recent play has us second-guessing them as one of the usual Under teams. It’s pricey but there is a reason Minnesota doesn't see many 5.5 totals — a number they are 10-1 to the Over on this season.
Prediction: Over 5.5 (-130)
Best bet
Minnesota closed at +140 on the ML in Vegas back on December 12 and the difference between Vegas and Boston is substantial. Even in a meeting in Florida early this year, the Wild closed at +130. This is one of the highest prices we’ve seen on Minnesota since October and it isn't warranted against a Boston team that struggles to play above .500.
This line is off by 20 points minimum and the play of Boston has been anything but impressive this season. They lack secondary scoring and will be without two key wingers in Jake DeBrusk and Tomas Nosek while Minnesota will have the motivation of adding a pair of prospects in the lineup.
Riding a five-game losing streak should be fire up a Wild squad that was on top of the Western Conference standings not too long ago.
Pick: Wild ML (+140)
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