Wild vs Lightning Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: UnKapped Potential

The Atlantic Division’s Tampa Bay Lightning host the Central Division’s Minnesota Wild in what should be an entertaining matchup. There is plenty of star power on display in this contest, with Kirill Kaprizov looking to continue his tremendous season in Minnesota while the usual suspects continue to dominate for Tampa Bay.

With all these star skaters taking the ice, which one will shine brightest? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Wild vs Lightning on Tuesday, January 24.

Wild vs Lightning best odds

Wild vs Lightning picks and predictions

The Minnesota Wild have been involved in more high-scoring contests lately, as there have been six or more total goals scored in seven of their last 11 games. A big component of these games has been the tremendous play of superstar winger Kirill Kaprizov, who has collected seven goals and five assists over those 11 outings.

One of those games came against the Tampa Bay Lightning on January 4, a contest in which Kaprizov potted two goals on six shots en route to Minnesota’s 5-1 victory. While he may not have as dominant of a showing this time around, the price is too good to pass up at +140 to back Kaprizov to score once again.

The main reason for this inflated line is that all-world goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy is projected to start between the pipes for Tampa Bay. However, Vasilevskiy has not been in his sharpest form lately.

Allowing three or more goals in six of his last eight starts, Vasilevskiy possesses a mere .897 save percentage (SV%) and 3.03 goals against average (GAA) over that stretch. While there should not be too much concern about Vasilevskiy elevating his game as the season rolls on, the blue line in front of him is a bigger problem.

While a lot of talented offensive defensemen on the Bolts patrol the blue line, the defensive play has slacked off this season. At 5-on-5, the Lightning rank just 19th in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60).

It’s no secret that the Wild’s entire offensive system revolves around No. 97 when he’s on the ice, and a big matchup against a talented team like Tampa Bay should not go any differently.

My best bet: Kirill Kaprizov anytime goal (+140)

Wild vs Lightning moneyline analysis

On home ice, the Bolts are correctly priced as the betting favorite. However, from a value perspective, I would lean towards the Wild at +135.

I made this game much closer to a pick ‘em than that line, as each team is dominant in one area and below-average in the other. At 5-on-5, the Lightning rank in the Top 5 in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) while Minnesota ranks in the Top 5 in xGA/60.

Meanwhile, at 5-on-5, the Wild rank in the bottom half of the league in xGF/60 while Tampa Bay ranks in the bottom half of the league in xGA/60. The difference in this matchup could very well come down to goaltending, which would give the edge to the Bolts.

However, with Vasilevskiy’s recent shaky play, -165 is a bit steep for the Lightning moneyline considering how close these teams rank in front of the nets.

Wild vs Lightning Over/Under analysis

In terms of scoring, the one factor I am most confident about is the fact the Wild need Kaprizov to produce their high-danger scoring chances in this contest. While Minnesota’s top-six forward group holds its end of the bargain, the lack of other scoring options is this club’s biggest weakness.

So, if Kaprizov & Co. do not score, then the lack of scoring options on the Wild means Vasilevskiy should have an easier night in net. On the other hand, Minnesota’s defense has been incredible this season, which is in large part due to the excellent play of defenseman Jared Spurgeon.

I would lean Under, but with Tampa Bay’s questionable defense and dynamite offense, I prefer to stay away from this total.

Wild vs Lightning betting trend to know

Kirill Kaprizov has scored seven goals over his last 11 games. Find more NHL betting trends for Wild vs Lightning.

Wild vs Lightning game info

Wild vs Lightning key injuries

Pages related to this topic