Brazil vs Germany Odds, Picks & Predictions: Olympic Men’s Basketball

With medal hopes steadily building, Germany will look to make it back-to-back wins at the 2024 Olympics as it takes on Brazil this afternoon.

This well-rounded German roster made a dominant start with a 97-77 victory over Japan in their Group B opener, led by Franz Wagner’s 22-point effort, while the Brazilians came up short on Saturday against France.

My Brazil vs Germany predictions dig into this July 30 matchup, which will be a lot closer than the line suggests.

Brazil vs Germany prediction

My best bet
Brazil +12.5 (-115)

My analysis
Very little went right for the Brazilians against France, where they shot 40% from the field, managed just nine points in the third quarter, and had no answer to the size of Victor Wembanyama and Rudy Gobert.

But a 12.5-point line here feels like an overreaction to their dud offensive performance and Germany’s easy win over Japan — and that’s enough to get me interested.

While the Germans have a talent edge, I prefer to take the points with a Brazil team fighting to keep its tournament hopes alive. This is a must-win game for Aleksandar Petrovic’s men.

It just doesn’t feel like a lopsided matchup. Germany doesn’t boast the same level of rim protection as France’s jumbo lineup, so I see the Brazilians scoring more efficiently — particularly their guards.

I’m also taking note of Brazil's foul trouble on Saturday, another decisive factor in that contest slipping away. Bruno Caboclo, one of its key men, finished with four fouls and zero points, going 0-for-3 from the floor. That feels like an outlier. 

Brazil’s starters combined for just 30 points against France, but this quick turnaround provides an opportunity to make amends. I like this price for the Brazilians to put up a fight on Tuesday.

Dennis the menace keeps dishing

My Dennis Schroder prop: Over 7.5 assists (-115)

Schroder pushed all the right buttons for the German offense against Japan, piling up 12 dimes as they closed in on the 100-point mark.

His days as an NBA starter appear to be dwindling, but his international play remains terrific, and the 2023 FIBA Basketball World Cup MVP tends to find an extra gear whenever he pulls on a Germany jersey.

This should be a decent matchup for Schroder, who still thrives on using his speed to slither into the lane. As the paint collapses and layup chances disappear, the German PG doesn’t have to look far for open shooters.

With Franz Wagner, Daniel Theis, and Andreas Obst all capable shotmakers in the starting lineup, Schroder isn’t carrying the offensive load alone anymore — and his playmaking could be different for the Germans as they chase a medal in Paris.

Brazil vs Germany same-game parlay (SGP)

The German frontcourt has a strong NBA flavor to it, with Daniel Theis and Mo Wagner both playing key roles — and I’m looking to a Theis prop to build out my SGP. Like Schroder, he's more of a difference maker on the international stage, and he’s got the ideal role in this German lineup.

While his points prop is tempting following a 7-for-7 shooting line against Japan, his rebounds prop feels like especially good value. Theis pulled down seven boards on Saturday, even though he only logged 20 minutes in the blowout win.

Relatively fresh after a bench role with the L.A. Clippers this season, Theis could be an X-factor for the Germans on Tuesday.

For Brazil, Caboclo feels the likeliest bounce-back candidate, and I like the Over on his points total at 14.5. He’s never shy about jacking up shots, and he served up some highlight moments in the Olympic qualifying tournament, including a 25-point outing against Montenegro.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Brazil vs Germany odds

Odds as of 7-30.

Brazil vs Germany game info

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