Canada vs Australia Odds, Picks & Predictions: Olympic Men’s Basketball

The Commonwealth’s two basketball powerhouses square off on Tuesday, July 30, as the action continues in the Men’s Basketball "Group of Death". 

The Canadians are coming off a narrow win over Greece, while Australia put together an impressive double-digit victory over World No. 2 ranked Spain.

My Canada vs. Australia predictions outline why I feel guard play will carry the day for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander & Co.

Canada vs Australia prediction

My best bet
Canada -5.5 (-115)

My analysis
Canada and Australia are the remaining undefeated teams in Group A, where the competition is fierce to advance to the knockout rounds.

Outside of Team USA, no two squads have a greater depth of NBA talent, with Australia having eight currently rostered NBA players compared to Canada's 10. But there is a real disparity in the quality of those NBA players.

The Boomers have promising young pieces like Josh Giddey and Dyson Daniels, but the Canadians have a legitimate MVP candidate in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, two of the best guard defenders in the world, and NBA champion/playoff killer Jamal Murray coming off the bench.

Canada’s Achilles heel is a lack of big-man depth. While there’s hope coming in the future in the form of Zach Edey, for now, the Red and White rely on cycling through Dwight Powell, Kelly Olynyk, and Trey Lyles. Those players were never elite defenders in their primes, and they’re distinctly in the back nine of their careers as well.

That weakness was a big issue against Greece. The Greek guards did a solid job getting Giannis Antetokounmpo the ball against Canada’s ball pressure, and when he caught the ball on the low block (or anywhere near it) he simply took one dribble, turned, and scored. Post defense remains a real issue for Canada, but it’s not one the Australians are well positioned to exploit.

Jock Landale had a nice opening game against Spain, but he’s not going to kill Canada inside. And then every matchup outside of center would seem to favor Canada, and most by quite a lot.

Shai proved against Greece he’s a dominant scorer within the FIBA ruleset, and Canada’s best offense can come from forcing turnovers and attacking in transition. 

Only unusually bad foul trouble saw both Lu Dort and Dillon Brooks forced from the game, allowing the contest against Greece to become close.

Nobody on the Boomers figures to put that kind of physical pressure on the Canadians, and with their full complement of guards, they should cause serious problems for Australia’s offense.

Shai takes the path of least resistance

My Shai Gilgeous-Alexander prop: Over 6.5 assists (-115)

The Boomers have some quality guard and wing defenders, though Dante Exum is questionable as he recovers from a compound dislocation of his finger. Even if Exum is out or limited, they still have Daniels to hound the ball against Shai. 

I don’t think there is a defender in the world right now who can truly take Shai out of his game, but the Australians also have so many other weak points on defense I don’t expect him to force the issue. He’ll score plenty, but he’ll do more damage by creating advantages and leveraging them into easy shots against mismatches for his teammates.

SGA will get separation on Daniels often enough to force help or at least draw gap help from the likes of Josh Green, Mills, and Giddey. 

With that extra bit of space, Shai will be primed for a strong playmaking game. RJ Barrett showed up in a major way in the game against Greece, and Shai hit him in transition numerous times for easy baskets. He’ll consistently have a mismatch again against Australia — as will Dort and Brooks. 

Canada vs Australia same-game parlay (SGP)

Patty Mills is a legendary international basketball player. He’s led FIBA tournaments in scoring on numerous occasions, however, his athleticism is notably sapped at 35 years of age. 

The first thing that goes with age is footspeed, which is why small guards like Mills tend to fall off hard once they experience some age-related decline. The margins for playing effectively at 6-foot-2 when you're already not an elite athlete in terms of explosion are razor thin. 

Mills is still a good enough shooter and leader to earn his place with Australia, but his liabilities will be on full display in this matchup. The Boomers can hide Mills against other teams, but every player they start against Canada is going to be at an athletic deficit. With mismatches all over the court, protecting Mills becomes problematic. 

I expect him to be targeted on defense, which will have a knock-on effect of tiring him out on offense. Mills is also going to struggle to gain any kind of separation against the likes of SGA, Dillon Brooks, or Nickeil Alexander-Walker.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Canada vs Australia odds

Odds as of 7-29.

Canada vs Australia game info

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