Taking the court in the Paris Olympics’ second men’s basketball matchup, Japan plays a loaded Germany squad that’s in contention to medal.
The Germans are favored by 18.5 points and look like a safe bet to make it out of Group B, thanks to their NBA experience. My Germany vs. Japan predictions are backing one of those NBA vets to assert himself.
Check out my Olympic men’s basketball picks for Saturday, July 27.
Germany vs Japan prediction
My best bet
Dennis Schroder Over 17.5 points (-120)
My analysis
This has a chance to be the best basketball team Germany has ever deployed at the Olympics. The best finish the Germans have had on the Olympic stage was seventh in 1992 at the Barcelona Olympics, but this squad looks like one of the five best in Paris — it nearly upset the United States in an exhibition, a 92-88 loss.
Not only has this team had plenty of continuity, but there are a few household names taking the international stage. One such player is the team’s captain, Dennis Schroder.
The Brooklyn Nets guard has been incredible for Germany and is coming off a FIBA World Cup MVP in 2023 after helping the Germans knock off the United States and Serbia on their way to the title.
In the title win against Serbia, Schroder put up 28 points and averaged 19.1 points per game across eight games during the tournament. His scoring prowess should be on full display once again against Japan at the Olympics.
Japan is one of the lesser teams at the Olympics this year and lacks a true star, with Rui Hachimura set to be their go-to player. Given Germany sits third in the FIBA rankings, and Japan is just 26th, Schroder should be able to capitalize on a backcourt lacking NBA talent.
Not only has Schroder proven to still be a competent scorer in the NBA at 30 years old — he averaged 14 points per game last season — but his skill and athleticism should be a challenge for Japan.
In the exhibition against the United States, Schroder played just 17 minutes, but finished with 13 points and 10 assists while showcasing why he’s the catalyst for this German attack. Against a far lesser opponent in Japan, expect Schroder to finish with at least 18, especially with how impressive he’s been for the Germans in international play.
Franz finds a way
My Franz Wagner prop: Franz Wagner Over 25.5 points, rebounds, and assists (-140)
This is Schroder’s team, but Franz Wagner is the most talented player set to take the court in this matchup. In his third season with the Orlando Magic, Wagner averaged a career-high 19.7 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per game.
The 22-year-old is the future of Germany basketball and in four games at the FIBA World Cup last year, he averaged a combined 26.2 points, rebounds, and assists — that includes a 22-point, five-rebound performance in the win over the United States.
Just like in the NBA, his skill at 6-foot-10 should create all kinds of issues for Japan, and while his 3-point shooting has been iffy, he’s still a threat from behind the arc. In the exhibition against the United States, Wagner ended up with 18 points, seven rebounds, and four assists.
He’s clearly ready to be a star for this German team, and his all-around ability is the perfect complement to Schroder. This could be a breakout game for Wagner against an overmatched Japan team, which is why the odds imply a 58.33% probability this prop hits.
Germany vs Japan same-game parlay (SGP)
Dennis Schroder Over 17.5 points
Rui Hachimura 5+ rebounds
Germany -18.5
Without a doubt, Schroder and Wagner are the most electric players taking the court in this game, but Hachimura should be able to put up some impressive numbers himself. The Los Angeles Lakers’ role player is coming off a career-best season and will be the focal point of Japan's team.
He averaged 4.3 rebounds per game in 26.9 minutes last season for the Lakers and in three games at the 2020 Olympics he managed to pull down 6.7 rebounds per game and twice finished with at least five. He's a far better player now, too.
However, even if Hachimura explodes, he’s going to have a tough time putting up big enough numbers to cover against Germany. The Germans might be the most underrated team at the Olympics.
They only have the fifth-shortest odds to win Gold at +2100 — a 4.55% implied probability — but have a team that should be in position to fight for a spot on the podium. With Schroder, the Wagners, Daniel Theis, and Andreas Obst, this is a team with the talent to light up the scoreboard against Japan.
If Germany plays up to their potential, this will be a statement game and a blowout win.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Germany vs Japan odds
| Germany | Japan | |
| -1,800 | Moneyline | +1,000 |
| Over 178 (-110) | Total | Under 178 (-110) |
| -18 (-112) | Spread | +18 (-108) |
Odds as of 7-26.
Germany vs Japan game info
| Location: | Stade Pierre Mauroy, Lille, France |
| Date: | Saturday, 7-27-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 a.m. ET |
| TV: | FuboTV |
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